Bernardo Lemos 82

Brasileiro morando no Canadá. 🍁🇨🇦 Economista, contador e curioso em relação ao mercado financeiro.

[Bernardo Lemos 82 @82_lemos]

@DataFutebol O que mais me chama a atenção é a movimentação do Gabriel Magalhães….

[Bernardo Lemos 82 @82_lemos]

@futebol_info @sportv @geglobo Sergio Xavier, mais conhecido como boca de latrina

[Bernardo Lemos 82 @82_lemos]

@DidaZico É risível ver alguns comentários aqui de que o Flamengo teria arregado pro Sport. Aqui vai a escalação do time só pra relembrar: Zé Carlos, Leandro, Edinho, Aldair e Leonardo, Andrade, Aílton, Zinho, Bebeto, Renato Gaúcho e ZICO. Alguém poderia escalar o Sport, por gentileza?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

It's official:

The S&P 500 just hit its 53rd all time high of 2024 and is currently up over 27% this year ALONE.

This puts the S&P 500 on track for 2 STRAIGHT years with 20%+ gains for the first time since 1998.

So, what does history suggest is coming next?

(a thread)

[Bernardo Lemos 82 @82_lemos]

@ItaloMarsinh0 https://t.co/Rb6M9Pc3KI

[VAROS @varosbr]

Com mais de 200 anos de história, esta foi a primeira empresa listada na bolsa do Brasil.

Ela desempenhou a função do Banco Central e chegou a quebrar 3 VEZES.

Conheça a turbulenta história do Banco do Brasil.🧵

[Bernardo Lemos 82 @82_lemos]

@StephenKanitz

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

How do you explain this?

Apple, $AAPL, has $380 billion in annual revenue and $125 billion in annual EBITDA with a $3 trillion market cap.

Nvidia, $NVDA, has $80 billion in annual revenue and $50 billion in annual EBTIDA with a $3 trillion market cap.

In other words, Nvidia and Apple have the same market cap but Apple has 5 TIMES more revenue.

Apple also has roughly 2.5 TIMES the EBITDA of Nvidia.

Is Apple too cheap or is Nvidia too expensive?

[Bernardo Lemos 82 @82_lemos]

Olha aí...

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

If a handful of banks blow up stocks rally right?

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

BREAKING: $TSLA is asking shareholders to vote again on @elonmusk's multibillion dollar compensation package that was voided by a judge in January. @andrewrsorkin has the latest:

[Kirill Klip 🌎 ⚡️⛏ #Gold & #rEVolution 🔌🔋🚘 @kirillklip]

#Gold Made a New Daily All-Time High at $2,377 Following Monthly and Quarterly ATHs at $2,234 and the Highest Yearly Close in History at $2,063. Next is a Climb to $2,500, $5,000 and Over $10,000
https://t.co/B1KA8wQ5SV

$TNR.v $TRRXF $NG $ABX $NEM $GDX $GDXJ $FNV $AEM $RGLD $KGC

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What has happened historically when the Fed started cutting rates?

Interest rate cuts conducted outside of recessions have been bullish in the past.

Since 1950, if the US economy did not experience a recession within a year of the first Fed cut the S&P 500 was always up 3 and 9 months after.

Stocks also recorded positive returns 6 and 12 months after the first cut except for 1968.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 saw an average gain of 10% in the 3 months after the first rate cut without a recession.

A "soft landing" is crucial for stocks.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: March PPI inflation RISES to 2.1%, below expectations of 2.2%.

Core PPI inflation RISES to 2.4%, above expectations of 2.3%.

PPI and CPI inflation are now both up for 2 straight months for the first time since September 2023.

The Fed pivot is quickly disappearing.

[Grit Capital @Grit_Capital]

“Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise.”

- Peter Lynch

[Brian Feroldi @BrianFeroldi]

10 powerful investing lessons, visualized:

1: Dollar-cost averaging makes market timing irrelevant.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What is happening in Canada?

Canadian bankruptcy filings are skyrocketing with nearly 800 bankruptcy filings in January 2024 alone.

This comes after bankruptcy filings in 2023 jumped nearly 40% year-over-year.

Currently, the number of businesses filing for insolvency is at its highest in 13 years.

In January, small businesses faced deadlines to repay interest-free loans of ~$45,000 given during the pandemic.

Small businesses currently account for ~33% of Canada's GDP.

Is Canada bracing for a recession?

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

OIl 🛢 & RECESSIONS

1947–1948 – Oil prices rise sharply ($20 to $30). Recession 1949.

Apr 1953–Jun 1953 – Oil prices rise modestly, though rapidly. Recession 2H53 – 1H54.

Jan 1957–Apr 1957 – Oil prices rise modestly, though rapidly. Recession 2H57–1H58.

[Dividend Growth Investor @DividendGrowth]

Six Dividend Growth Stocks Raising Shareholder Distributions

https://t.co/81Mrv1RiFg

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Office vacancy rates are skyrocketing:

The latest data shows that the office vacancy rate in the US is about to hit 20% for the first time in history.

Even during at height of the pandemic, office vacancy rates did not break above 19%.

As a result, the price of office buildings is now down nearly 50% from its high.

Just last week, a Canadian pension fund just sold its 29% stake in this New York office building for $1.

The pension fund had already poured $71 million into the property and the building currently has a $220 million mortgage.

Remote work has changed the world.