+$91k all-time on polymarket. 3,716 trades. Mostly tennis.
Last week that number was +$200k. I gave back $110k in three days. that's not a typo and i'm not hiding it - the wallet is public, you can watch it happen on the chart.
Starting this account for one reason: everyone posts their equity curve at the peak. Nobody posts the week after. I'll be logging entries, exits and mistakes here, in that order of honesty.
No signals. No courses. No "dm me". If a number sounds too clean, check it yourself
Sabalenka -Zhang tonight, 7pm ET. Moneyline says this is basically decided before a ball's hit.
> match winner: Sabalenka 93.5¢, $77.3k volume, $137k liquidity - real size, real market
> straight sets (under 2.5): only 79.5¢ - the book isn't nearly as sure Zhang won't steal a set
> match total O/U 22.5 games: $57 liquidity, 78¢ spread - nobody's actually pricing this one
> match total O/U 23.5: $3.63 liquidity, spread almost the full dollar - that's not a market, that's a placeholder
93.5¢ on the winner looks like conviction. Move one line over to the game totals and the same book is basically empty.
Don't confuse a deep line with a deep market. Check what actually has size before you read confidence into a number.
On @Polymarket
Zverev opened this at 84.5¢ overnight. Big name, should be routine, right.
Then the match actually started.
> 19:20 ET: kickoff, 85.5¢
> 20:00: down to 78.5¢
> 20:15: 76.5¢
> 20:30: spikes to 92.5¢
> 20:45: crashes to 70.5¢
> right now: 66.5¢
That's a 26-point swing inside 21 minutes on a National Bank Open quarterfinal. $304k traded today, $443k sitting in the book - real size, not some thin ITF card nobody's watching.
If you bought the pregame number and walked away, you have no idea what you're actually holding right now.
Piros opened dead even against Dedura-Palomero in Hagen. 50¢/50¢, nobody home.
Then the book started moving before a single point got played today.
> 08-04 10:30 UTC: 50¢ flat, no signal yet
> drifted to 58¢ overnight on pure positioning, zero live action
> match went live 09:05 UTC
> 8 minutes into play: 62¢, fresh high on the board
$57.4k traded in the last 24h. $373k sitting in liquidity - for a Hagen Challenger nobody outside the bracket has heard of.
Spread's still 1¢ wide at 62% live. Somebody's quietly making a tight market on a match that isn't trending anywhere else.
If you're only checking the pregame number, you already missed the move.
+$91k all-time on polymarket. 3,716 trades. Mostly tennis.
Last week that number was +$200k. I gave back $110k in three days. that's not a typo and i'm not hiding it - the wallet is public, you can watch it happen on the chart.
Starting this account for one reason: everyone posts their equity curve at the peak. Nobody posts the week after. I'll be logging entries, exits and mistakes here, in that order of honesty.
No signals. No courses. No "dm me". If a number sounds too clean, check it yourself
The pregame line on HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX barely moved.
The live line did all the work: -61% in one hour, $238k traded.
If you're only trading the open, you're leaving the actual edge on the table.
@Polymarket esports markets are a live-trading game now, not a pick'em.
+$91k all-time on polymarket. 3,716 trades. Mostly tennis.
Last week that number was +$200k. I gave back $110k in three days. that's not a typo and i'm not hiding it - the wallet is public, you can watch it happen on the chart.
Starting this account for one reason: everyone posts their equity curve at the peak. Nobody posts the week after. I'll be logging entries, exits and mistakes here, in that order of honesty.
No signals. No courses. No "dm me". If a number sounds too clean, check it yourself
A sportsbook won't move a line to 0.1¢ mid-game. Too much liability - they'd rather round it to "basically over" and eat the rest quietly.
Polymarket doesn't round. Watched a moneyline get repriced point by point tonight as the game actually happened - down to fractions of a cent, live, on the board.
That's not a book protecting itself. That's just people pricing what they're watching, in real time, with real money.
Sportsbooks smooth reality so they don't get exposed. An exchange just shows you the truth, updated every point.
+$91k all-time on polymarket. 3,716 trades. Mostly tennis.
Last week that number was +$200k. I gave back $110k in three days. that's not a typo and i'm not hiding it - the wallet is public, you can watch it happen on the chart.
Starting this account for one reason: everyone posts their equity curve at the peak. Nobody posts the week after. I'll be logging entries, exits and mistakes here, in that order of honesty.
No signals. No courses. No "dm me". If a number sounds too clean, check it yourself
+$91k all-time on polymarket. 3,716 trades. Mostly tennis.
Last week that number was +$200k. I gave back $110k in three days. that's not a typo and i'm not hiding it - the wallet is public, you can watch it happen on the chart.
Starting this account for one reason: everyone posts their equity curve at the peak. Nobody posts the week after. I'll be logging entries, exits and mistakes here, in that order of honesty.
No signals. No courses. No "dm me". If a number sounds too clean, check it yourself
+$91k all-time on polymarket. 3,716 trades. Mostly tennis.
Last week that number was +$200k. I gave back $110k in three days. that's not a typo and i'm not hiding it - the wallet is public, you can watch it happen on the chart.
Starting this account for one reason: everyone posts their equity curve at the peak. Nobody posts the week after. I'll be logging entries, exits and mistakes here, in that order of honesty.
No signals. No courses. No "dm me". If a number sounds too clean, check it yourself