tapstrafe

Crypto. Data. Edge.
Markets | Probability
@Polymarket @M1poly

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Dudes on @Polymarket
I have a cool idea for your market: add a stop-loss)
I'm tired of losing money on sleeping.
@PolymarketTrade @PolymarketMoney

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@Nekt_0 Sounds very convincing

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A new week, a new opportunity to earn on the price of #BTC.

As always, I'm placing a bet on the weekly price of #BTC. Every week, I encourage everyone to safely earn 20-25% PNL for their bank. Delta-neutral positions provide the safest way to earn money on @Polymarket. While everyone else is gambling on #sports, #politics, and other things, there is a safer way to earn money — the weekly price of #BTC or any other coin (I stick with #BTC because it has the most liquidity and is the easiest to open positions on).

So, as usual, I opened at $94,000 “NO” and $82,000 “NO,” a classic range between two prices where you can safely ride out any jumps in the chart. Also, today I was lucky and was allowed to open one position with a spread of $92,000, the sum of two bets of 97 cents per share, i.e., 3% net profit after the event is over.

@PolymarketTrade @PolymarketMoney

https://t.co/CjDPkCh1OP

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@Nekt_0 Elon always provides opportunities to earn money

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@miniffer_eth good idea, let's give it a try

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Movies again, and profits again.

The movie Marty Supreme has been released, and of course I found an interesting bet on @Polymarket related to this movie. The last bet on Avatar brought a good profit, and I think this movie can also be a good source of income. So, to the point, the bet is on the number of Oscars this film will win, which is a very interesting situation because we don't really need to guess how many Oscars it will win. We will take the odds, but first let's think about how many Oscars this film can actually win.

So, the film is nominated for nine Oscars, but it's not good enough in all categories to win them all. This film is an indie project and doesn't have much weight behind it, while in previous years, Oscars have gone to big projects with huge budgets and deep studio pockets. It will be difficult for it to compete for nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, etc., but it has something that other films don't have, and that is the lead actor in the lead role. The only chance this film has of winning an Oscar is @RealChalamet, who has been nominated in this category at other awards and has really gotten into the role, plus he's been on a roll lately.

One might think that @LeoDiCaprio is a good contender in this category, but unfortunately, an average action movie will not find recognition. @michaelb4jordan is also an interesting option, but not this time, as horror movies rarely receive recognition and it is difficult to deliver something outstanding in such films.

Conclusion: the film could win an Oscar, but in my opinion, it will only be for Best Actor, and that's where we'll make our money.

No one is asking you to guess exactly how many Oscars the film will win, but we already know that “0” is not an option for us, and the film has nothing else to boast about, so we need to bet on the negative outcomes of the other options. If we bet on “NO” outcomes: “6+”, “5”, ‘4’, “3”, then we can already collect 20% PNL after the event is over, and I think that's an incredibly smart move. We leave a gap in the form of a second Oscar that the film may receive, but we collect a large amount of profit from other bets.

Think about it, the cards are in your hands, make your assumptions, but I believe that the film will only receive 1 Oscar and I plan to make money on it!

@PolymarketMoney @PolymarketTrade

https://t.co/GazN8RDgm5

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Well, I closed this deal with a +30% PNL.
As mentioned earlier, @Polymarket gives you the opportunity to earn money if you set your priorities correctly. Delta-neutral positions allow you to trade in a fairly safe way for your bank, which is why I recommend that everyone explore this option for earning money.
I also noticed an interesting trend in the markets: when there is a small movement in BTC, people start selling their positions in a panic, and it is at this moment that you can find very attractive odds on events.

https://t.co/GejVuvJ0bH

@PolymarketMoney @PolymarketTrade

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It's me again, and once again there's a good bet on @Polymarket available.

Two days ago, a new week began for the price of BTC. I didn't touch it because I had seen many posts before that said BTC could rebound to $94,000, and that's what happened. Now is the time to take a delta-neutral position at $88,000 “NO” and $100,000 “NO” to collect your 20% PNL. Personally, I have opened such positions more than once and consistently earned a small percentage on my balance. I highly recommend studying this topic.

@PolymarketMoney @PolymarketTrade

https://t.co/4gaxhJQS0a

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@M1poly @PolymarketBuild @Polymarket @PolymarketMoney lfg

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Esports and why are the odds on the favorites so low again?

Recently, @Polymarket opened betting on IEM Krakow 2026: Winner, where the odds are unfairly high for the underdog teams and low for the favorites, Team Vitality and Team Spirit have a measly 30% and 20% respectively. How is this possible? This is a 100% flip bet, as these two teams will tear up the tournament, and it is very likely that they will play in the final.

Personally, I picked Team Spirit only for a 2x-3x flip, without any hold. Once again, @Polymarket is giving those who want to earn money the opportunity to do so.

@PolymarketMoney @PolymarketTrade

https://t.co/EAgiqRtsCt

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@Mot1o_n Pure math and the clock

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@crypt0b3ar @Polymarket thx

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Avatar: Fire and Ash, a new candidate for money besides Stranger Things has been found.

While browsing the @Polymarket website, I came across an interesting event, “Avatar: Fire and Ash total domestic gross by January 31.” This raised the question, “How much can it really gross by January 31?”

Today is January 9, which means there are 21 days left to collect. The January holidays are coming to an end, but they still offer a chance for increased collections. The film also has no competition in theaters, which allows it to take over most of the market. In other words, the film has every chance of grossing over $400 million. With this conclusion, I turned to @gork to ask him to analyze the situation and evaluate my assessment. He also concluded that the film should easily gross $450 million by the end of January.

So, my idea is this: we will flip the bet instead of holding it. Now is a good time to enter the “400-440 million” event. I have already opened a bet at 29 cents per share and plan to flip at 2-3 times the current price at the end of the month, as I believe this is free money that we are being given to earn. Don't hope to win the bet; if you repeat it, make sure you flip.

The logic is there, the opportunity is there, and the confidence is there, so the bags are loaded and we are waiting for growth.

@PolymarketMoney @PolymarketTrade

https://t.co/Q5AyDqpK7o

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@irexlaz @cavs @Timberwolves Minnesota’s chemistry is paying off right now. At 57¢, this looks like solid value.

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@LayerYapper Thank you, it couldn't be any other way. It's just logical

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Stranger Things is back, and so is the schizophrenia surrounding this series.

The scandalous debate over El's death has only recently ended, and now the betting has started again, but this time on whether there will be another series and a sequel. I heard a theory on which this event is based: “There are a lot of inconsistencies in the last episode, which seem to suggest that all this is happening in someone's fantasy. That is, the military calmly lets go of the children who have done a lot of bad things, Vecna dies from a stake in the heart when his tanks couldn't take him, etc.”

To be honest, this is all nonsense that people make up to justify the leaked season finale with its famous happy ending. The Duffer brothers have clearly stated that there is nothing more to wait for — all the episodes have been released, the ending is what they intended, and there is no need to turn on SPGS with expectations of something else.

And now, against this backdrop, a bet has been launched on @Polymarket regarding the release of a new episode. In my opinion, this is free money, because no one in their right mind would re-release the last episode, which cost Netflix $80 million. The project is already overflowing with content and invested money to engage in a re-release.

With confidence, we press NO on the event and take our money.

@PolymarketMoney @PolymarketTrade

https://t.co/RuPF7w5qZ4

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How to hedge positions on @Polymarket with futures on exchanges?

What am I talking about?
If you want to open a trade on Polymarket at the price of BTC, ETH, SOL, or any other coin, there are two hedging options: either open another trade on Polymarket, using a delta-neutral position, so to speak, or open an opposite trade on futures.

So, let's say you decide to open a trade on BTC for the event “Bitcoin above ___ on January 9?” $96,000 “NO.” Then you need to open a long position on any major exchange that supports orders for the BTC pair with good liquidity and adequate quotes. Let's say the Bybit exchange.

To calculate the volume of a long trade, use the following formula: X * (price increase / current price) = position size on Polymarket in dollars, where X is the position size on Bybit. In our case, the formula will look like this: X * (96,000 - current price)/current price = position size. In my case, the position size will be $17,000.

It is also important to note that the hedge will not be perfect, as Polymarket is a binary option, while futures are a linear instrument. You will have to take risks if you make a mistake at any point. This is not financial advice — DYOR, the risks are yours. I just explained how it can be done, and how you use it is up to you.

@PolymarketTrade @PolymarketMoney

https://t.co/yra2BQ7xeH

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@Poly_PlayBook @Polymarket Recently, most insiders have switched to Polymarket. You're right, it's worth checking out

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The bot earns $60,000 per day on @Polymarket.

Humans cannot work around the clock without rest, but bots can. A typical bot can literally print money on BTC, XRP, ETH, and SOL. It trades on price increases and decreases.
— 106 trades in 3 days
— net profit of $106,000

This bot does not guess the price; it buys both outcomes if the price for both options is less than $1 in total, i.e., it is real arbitrage between two outcomes at once.

Why am I bringing this up?
Together with the DAO I am a part of, we have developed a copy-trade bot that you can give your wallet address to, and it will repeat all the trades for you. What's more, it's completely free and available on Telegram. In the era of technology and automation, it is impossible to earn money manually — machines will take all the money for themselves, and you will be left with empty pockets.
If you still decide to try to repeat the success of the guy in the screenshot, here is the name of the bot: @m1_trading_bot

@PolymarketMoney @PolymarketTrade

Account in the screenshot: https://t.co/7Aw14WBYLt

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I found an interesting spread on @Polymarket regarding the ATH (all-time high) on #BTC. The price difference is 5%, meaning that in either case, we can achieve a +5% PNL. However, this bet will be a long-term one until people notice it or until it is fulfilled.
I believe that you can really make money on Polymarket with such spreads. There is no risk here, since the event has a specific wording and cannot be interpreted in any other way, i.e. the outcome will be 100% correctly determined.
Try to look for more reliable ways to make money, and spreads are almost 100% reliable. Anyone who has ever done this understands what I am talking about.

UPD: I forgot that the bet can be reversed and a 15% spread can be found.

@PolymarketTrade @PolymarketMoney

https://t.co/3NDhcuvwme
https://t.co/2UqHQpGu1m