Alan Duggan

Research Fellow @NottsPolitics / @OpenElectionsUK. Views are personal. He/Him Cis 🖖 🇮🇪

Account not in use, moved to @aduggan.bsky.social

[@politicalquarterly.bsky.social @po_qu]

Local Leaflets: Constituency Issue Messaging at the 2024 General Election

@CaitlinMilazzo @SiimTrumm @ADuggan

Part of the forthcoming general election SI edited by @po_qu SI eds @pjsloman and @colm_m

https://t.co/o98ZHKTFw6

#campaigning #candidates #communication #leaflets

[evan kate @evankate760]

Philip Dwyer was told he wasn't wanted in Ballaghaderreen this evening. He was at a vigil held by local people in support of an alleged assault victim. The locals have genuine concerns over incidents in the town. But they don't want Dwyer anywhere near their town. Well done folks

[RTÉ Brainstorm @RTEBrainstorm]

Does negative election campaigning work in Ireland? Analysis by @michelecrepaz @HAPPatQUB @QUBelfast @ADuggan @SocSciStir @NottsPolitics & Liam Kneafsey @TCDPoliticalSci @tcddublin @IrishResearch https://t.co/3DfeR3iANb

[PRXJournal @PRXjournal]

🍊 Fresh out!

🪃@ADuggan @michelecrepaz & Liam Kneafsey examine if negative campaign messaging is effective for attackers in multiparty systems? 🇮🇪

👉 https://t.co/Mri3mMrTuS #OA

#politicaladvertising #election #surveyexperiment #Ireland #facebook

[Michele Crepaz @michelecrepaz]

🚨 Publication Alert (1/4): @PRXjournal https://t.co/ZeLSxUcwvl #OpenAccess

Liam Kneafsey, @ADuggan and I conduct a survey experiment to test the effects of negative campaigning on voting intentions in Ireland. #STV is 🤯 but great to observe complex mechanisms behind NC!

[Open Elections UK @OpenElectionsUK]

Happy Election Day from the OpenElections team! It has been a fabulous 6 wks of leaflets. As of today, we have +10k coded leaflets from 5 GEs, including +1.2k from #GE24 - and plenty more still to be coded. Watch this space for our post-election analysis!
@SiimTrumm @ADuggan

[Open Elections UK @OpenElectionsUK]

We've just added our 1,000th content-coded leaflet for #GE2024! We now have leaflets from 270 constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales.

@SiimTrumm @ADuggan

[Caitlin Milazzo @CaitlinMilazzo]

Great to see our @OpenElectionsUK research featured in @thetimes!

@SiimTrumm @ADuggan

[Open Elections UK @OpenElectionsUK]

As of today, @OpenElectionsUK archive includes 600+ coded leaflets, covering 221 constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales!
@CaitlinMilazzo @SiimTrumm @ADuggan

[Open Elections UK @OpenElectionsUK]

We have had lots of interest in the use of tactical messages (e.g., "X can't win here", bar charts) in leaflets. What does our latest data say about the use of these messages in #GE24 vs. previous elections?

[Alan Duggan @ADuggan]

@ste_mueller @ElectoralStdies @michaelj505 I had forgotten about this analysis Stefan, such a great paper!

[Shrill by Mouth @Iskesullas]

How it started... How it's going...

[Caitlin Milazzo @CaitlinMilazzo]

Nothing says election spirit like leaflets! Over the next 5 weeks, the @OpenElectionsUK team will be analysing the content of your leaflets.

How can you help?

Upload your #GE2024 leaflets to @thesc or https://t.co/A8boFqzn9P. You upload them, we'll code them!

[Open Elections UK @OpenElectionsUK]

Issue prevalence in our #GE24 leaflets so far:
🩺Health: 81%
💰 Economy: 75%
🍃 Environment: 68%
👩‍🎓 Education: 32%
🏛️ Governance: 31%
👩‍👩‍👧Social Welfare: 24%
🛬Immigration: 5%
🇪🇺 Brexit/Europe: 3%

@CaitlinMilazzo @SiimTrumm @ADuggan

[Open Elections UK @OpenElectionsUK]

🚨Countdown to General Election 2024! 🚨

We now have 59 #GE24 leaflets posted on our site! Check them out - https://t.co/7q91vJyatr

Thank you to everyone who has uploaded their #GE2024 leaflets so far! Please keep uploading them at https://t.co/lI6uAD6ddL

[Hansard Society @HansardSociety]

Who votes by post? Research by @CaitlinMilazzo et al shows it's those with time/mobility constraints, esp the elderly. Older people tend to vote Cons so this is an 'interesting' approach to take.

Read the research in our Parliamentary Affairs journal. https://t.co/nYYntFba0W

[Open Elections UK @OpenElectionsUK]

🚨Countdown to General Election 2024!🚨

Check out the #GE2024 leaflets already posted at https://t.co/TDSyrHHA5Z. So far, we have leaflets from four parties across 13 constituencies.

Please upload your #GE24 #GE2024 leaflets directly to our site (https://t.co/Fr7EUcrpZX…).

[Alan Duggan @ADuggan]

Looking at the underlying numbers, the 'public' backing Kate Forbes over Swinney is driven almost solely by Tory voters. Not much of an electoral asset to appeal to a section of voters that will steadfastly never endorse the SNP or independence.

[The National @ScotNational]

NEW: John Swinney is the preferred choice to replace Humza Yousaf as first minister among SNP voters, but the public back Kate Forbes in the role, according to new polling from Ipsos.

Both are seen as better picks than Anas Sarwar or Douglas Ross.

[DilinODose @MimiVonPeach]

Killing a man for not speaking English in Ireland, while not one of these murderers has a word of Irish.

Them and their kind call themselves 'patriots'.

Never see them do a tap for us, our language, our culture, unification.
Aye, they're patriots alright, English patriots.