AEA

Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered...

[AEA @AEA__1]

“Some years we win. Other years we build character.” — Steve Jobs

Since launching the fund in 2019, the team’s commitment and sacrifices have been unwavering. Today, we celebrate another important milestone. Thank you all for your continued support and engagement.

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

So we have $1T in cash on hand and $40T of debt, and are discussing…buybacks?!

[Ben Hunt @EpsilonTheory]

Weimar-a-Lago

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

Reminder:

You don't buy the first panic.

You buy the last panic.

[AEA @AEA__1]

Coal and Dutch TFF back on the menu ahead of European winter.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

CHART OF THE DAY: The Rhine river, a key waterway for petroleum refined products, chemical commodities, coal and steel, is closing due to low water levels.

As a result, the freight cost for Rhine barges has zoomed to an all-time high.

🔗: https://t.co/dPWkrwLVZ4

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

I don’t care what you want to call it. A sovereign that has to buy its own bonds to set the price has already conceded that the market won't.

Yesterday Scott Bessent doubled long-bond buybacks, two weeks after publishing the quarterly schedule and one day after the 30-year hit 5.32%. That is a level we’ve not seen since 2007.

But he had little choice: it was the final option in a long list of interventions: first oil, draining the SPR below 300 million barrels to control the term premium, then dollar backstops to keep foreign holders of Treasuries from selling, with Tokyo and the Gulf states in front of the queue.

Then there was FX, selling euros to buy yen for the first time since 1998. Each lever one step closer to the bond market itself.

Now they are buying. The market read it instantly: gold rose 4% to $4,510 within hours, silver nearly 5%, and the Quantix Commodity Index closed at an all-time high. (2/11)

[Danny Dayan @DannyDayan5]

I have still not seen a single week of FCI tightening in my models since May.

Now Bessent gets desperate for more.

Passive easing at work. More inflation.

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

Bessent showing his hand here in a scramble panic move with the long end buy back increases but he is bringing a knife to the gun fight here with this size (from $2bn to $4bn). It's not enough when you consider all the AI capex issuance we have been seeing lately and the massive deficit spending increases globally.

I suspect markets are going to quickly say it's not enough and will force him to do even more at the next QRA in November.

Buckle up for a fun ride between now and the elections.

[Patterns @Patterns0001]

BREAKING: India is now the least favored Asian stock market among Global fund managers

[DCinvestor @DCinvestor]

~35,000 Americans died to help create South Korea, and it remains home to several key US military bases. they have historically been a very good ally

meanwhile, North Korea is sending its soldiers to fight on behalf of Russia in Ukraine against US/NATO interests

this statement, endorsing one of the most significant destabilizing forces in the region, will have a chilling effect across all of our allies in Asia (Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, etc.)

as i've said for months now, you are watching the speedrun destruction of the US empire happen live as a result of a war of choice where we chose not to build any multi-lateral justification or coalition beyond Israel

it's so over

[AEA @AEA__1]

Quite often this is paired against single stock positions.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Asset Managers and Hedge Funds have now built the largest Nasdaq Futures short position in history 🚨🚨

[Kateri Seraphina @KateriSeraphina]

′′ Le vélo est la mort lente de la planète ".
Un banquier a fait réfléchir les économistes quand il a déclaré : ′′
Un cycliste est une catastrophe pour l'économie du pays :
il n'achète pas de voitures et n'emprunte pas d'argent pour l'acheter.
Il ne paie pas les polices d'assurance.
N'achète pas de carburant, ne paie pas pour la révision et les réparations nécessaires de la voiture.
N 'utilise pas de parking payant.
Il ne provoque pas d'accidents majeurs.
Ne nécessite pas d'autoroutes multiples.
Il ne devient pas obèse.
Les gens en bonne santé ne sont pas nécessaires ou utiles à l'économie.
Ils n'achètent pas de médicaments, ils ne vont pas dans les hôpitaux ou chez les médecins, ils n'ajoutent rien au PIB du pays.
Tandis que chaque nouveau magasin McDonald' s crée au moins :
30 emplois,
dont 10 cardiologues,
10 dentistes,
10 experts en régime alimentaire et nutritionnistes,
ainsi que les personnes qui travaillent dans le magasin lui-même, évidemment ".
Choisissez donc avec attention : un vélo ou un Mc Donald ?
Ça vaut la peine d'y penser...
PS : marcher c'est encore pire car les piétons n'achètent même pas de vélo !

[AEA @AEA__1]

This is why having a process is key....

[AJ Signal @aj_geo_analysis]

You need to know this: The Stock markets are now run by algorithms and machines and sentiment analysis models.

These Sentiment models do NOT read a sentence and decide whether it is true. They read who said it, then apply a source authority weight. A head of state carries the highest multiplier in the stack, and no analyst thread will ever match it.

So when the line is that the "Strait is open", that talks are advancing, that normalization is close, the machine does not verify the claim.

It measures that the claim was made, by whom, and how fast it travelled.

Tens of millions of followers plus news channels pickup registers as breadth. Breadth gets read as confirmation. Crude, tanker rates, war risk premiums and defense names reprice inside seconds.

Verification lands hours later, sometimes days. By then the position is closed and the correction moves nothing.

Markets have always moved on information. What is new is that they now move on attribution, and the machinery, AI and sentiment analysis cannot tell the difference between a fact and a well sourced assertion.

Oil still cannot get through the strait of hormuz but the AI does not consider that, it considers that Trump (the actual President of the United States issued the statement and that statement gets ranked the highest, because all news channels and media channels start to report on it).

Read my latest analysis on how the markets are being manipulated here: https://t.co/KnDylx2e73

Signal, Not Noise!!

[Danny Dayan @DannyDayan5]

No press conference > gibberish press conference.

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield just hit 5.21%, its HIGHEST level in nearly 19 years

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨: Japanese Stock Market enters technical correction after falling more than 10% from June's all-time high 📉 🐻

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US PPI falls to 5.5%, lower than expectations.

[Michael J. Kramer @MichaelMOTTCM]

NVDA 5-Yr CDS

[Barchart @Barchart]

Almost 60% of Tech Stocks are now in a bear market 🐻 📉 😱

[AEA @AEA__1]

🤘

[Dr Simon @DrSimonsTravels]

Absolutely incredible #EnterSandman

[James Hetfield @real_papahet]

London… what a way to kick things off. 🤘

You brought the passion, the voices, and the energy from the first note to the last. Nights like this remind us why we keep doing what we do.

Thank you for making Night 1 unforgettable. Rest up we’re not done yet. ❤️

#Metallica #M72WorldTour #London #MetallicaFamily #LiveMetal