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Sam starts with the whole market, then his time frame, and enters only after both. The big picture first: "Bitcoin and liquidity, dominance, we see the volume". The time frame tells him the kind of trade and where the exit and take profit sit. Where does your analysis start?
Amazing momentum can make the top of a rally look like the moment to get in. Sam's lesson checks history first: the last time price reached that height, it went down. "The sellers were very aggressive that moment." What do you check before you chase a rally into an old high?
Momentum shows how fast price got to the top, not what the market did there last time. In Sam's lesson, price rallies back to where it fell before. That height is your resistance, "your memory, your history". Last time, it went down. Do you look back before trusting momentum?
It's not the first stop-out that blows the account. In Sam's example, the trader gets stopped out, finds a new line and buys again. Then again. Sam calls that loop revenge trading, and says that's how you blow your account. What breaks the loop for you after a stop-out?
Revenge trading doesn't feel like revenge. It feels like one more beautiful support line. In Sam's lesson, a trader draws one, gets stopped out, says "lesson learned" and draws the next to buy again. Four lines, four stop-outs. Ever bought the next line after a stop-out?
When a familiar name starts selling crypto, the logo tells you who sells it. The terms tell you what you hold. This week has a clean example.
On Thursday, Schwab's CEO said: "All clients can now access Schwab Crypto." That is its account for buying bitcoin and ether. Schwab says the account is unavailable in New York, Louisiana, U.S. territories and all international jurisdictions. Its own pages answer four questions worth asking of any app before you buy:
1. Who holds the coins? Schwab says you own them. A Schwab bank is the custodian, with Paxos as subcustodian.
2. What protects them? Schwab says the crypto is not SIPC protected and not FDIC insured; cash in the account can be, within FDIC limits. Its security guarantee covers losses from unauthorized activity.
3. Can you move them out? Transfers are rolling out in phases. Once they are on, a new address waits at least 24 hours before use, and withdrawals are capped at 3 every 24 hours and $5,000 each.
4. What does it cost? A buy costs 0.75% and a sell costs 0.75% of that trade's value, with a $0.01 minimum per trade. Sending coins to another wallet also incurs a network fee.
None of these answers makes an app good or bad. Together they tell you what you hold, what covers it and how you get out.
Another app will answer differently. Ask it the same four questions before you buy, not after you need the answers.
The name is on the door. The terms are inside.
A week in our free Telegram community: market analysis of the last 24 hours, recent lessons (candles, support lines, fake login pages) and an open chat for your questions. Join us: https://t.co/r9cEtrXWSz
The EU's banking regulator (EBA) has classed USDC as "significant" under MiCA, the first of 45 notified e-money tokens (Oct 14). From Nov 12, the EBA directly oversees the EU issuer's reserves, liquidity and redemption plans. Do you check who supervises your stablecoin?
The Call, US CPI (September): called it. September CPI came in at 3.7% year on year. Markets priced a 49% chance of CPI above 3.6% year on year. Record: 1 of 1, 1 against the market (1 right).
Crypto isn't gambling. Trading without a plan is. Same coin, two trades: one on a stranger's tip with no exit, one with a plan made before the click. Risk 1% a trade and even 10 losses in a row cost about 10%. Which one was your last trade?
Crypto isn't gambling. Trading without a plan is. Buying on a stranger's tip with no exit is a bet. A plan answers three questions before you click: why am I in, where am I wrong, and how much can I lose? Can't answer all three? Then it's a bet. Which do traders skip most?
Two words should end any crypto pitch: "guaranteed returns." Mathieu explains why no one can honestly promise a profit, and the one question that ends the pitch. Has anyone ever promised you a guaranteed return?
A crypto pitch that promises "guaranteed returns" has told you enough. Prices move both ways, so no one can honestly promise a profit. Ask who pays the "guaranteed" part if prices drop. Whatever the answer, the risk stays with you. Ever been promised guaranteed returns?
When a security story breaks, sort it into three piles before you react: what the company said, what others estimate or suspect, and what you can check yourself. Friday's Ledger news is a clean example.
What Ledger said: it is investigating reports of lost funds from users in Southeast Asia who bought from one reseller, and, as a precaution, has asked that reseller to pause all sales and shipments. It advised that reseller's buyers from the last 90 days not to start setup, or, if they had, to consider moving assets to a new Ledger device with a new seed. The new seed matters: the old phrase on a new device is still the old wallet.
What others estimate or suspect: some suggest tampered devices, and one blockchain researcher puts reported losses from drained wallets above $86 million. How much links to this reseller is unclear. Ledger has confirmed neither a figure nor a cause.
What you can check on any hardware wallet:
1. Was the recovery sheet in the box blank? Ledger says it always should be.
2. Did the device create the phrase during your own setup? Ledger says not to use one that arrives with a phrase or PIN set.
3. Have you ever typed the phrase into an app, a website or a computer? Ledger says never to.
4. Has anyone, "support" included, asked you for it? Ledger says its support never will.
No check catches everything, and none explains what happened here.
The first pile can be quoted. The second can change by tomorrow. The third is in your hands.
Day 2 at TOKEN2049 Singapore: panels on the main stages and a full expo floor. What we're bringing home: a view from a stage is still an opinion, and any offer can wait until you've read the terms. Thanks to WEEX for the invite. Talks or booths: which should we cover next time?
Day 1 at TOKEN2049 Singapore, from the walk in at Marina Bay Sands to the evening at a WEEX side event. Thanks to WEEX for the invite. Have you been to a crypto conference, or would you go to one?
The Crypto Academy team is at TOKEN2049 Singapore this week. What's the one question you'd ask the builders and traders in the room? Reply with it and we'll put the best ones to people on the floor.
A support or resistance line is a question, not an answer. Before you trust one, check how often price reacted there, how recently, and how sharply. Three clear reactions this month say more than one touch long ago. Which do you check first?