America First Insight

Practical, no-nonsense U.S. political analysis. Pushing real America First ideas.

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[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

We are incredibly proud to be launching this for our Second Anniversary of America First Insight!

Two years ago, AFI was launched to be a scorecard and possibly some light aggregation.

We could have never imagined how far we have gotten. From endorsements, to live race results, memberships, our analysis. It has all been thanks to the many many amazing patriots that have helped us along the way.

Whether you purchased a subscription, bought a bumper magnet, interacted with us, or even just looked at our tweets, we have come so far, and the best has yet to come!

This is one of the few high quality polls released in the Florida Governor Race, and it just made sense to be sponsoring a poll to our home state. Afterall, politics is local!

Genuinely thank you everyone, we have so much more to do this year, but we wanted to give thanks to you all!

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

🚨NEW FLORIDA POLL🍊

America First Insight has sponsored a Quantus Insight poll for the Florida 2026 Governor GOP Primary!

Byron Donalds comes out with nearly 50% of the vote, while Jay Collins and James Fishback are both battling it out for 2nd place.

More Questions below!

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

@soccerfananon Probably the issue would be if other circuit courts would agree? Would a California Judge see the regulation as unconstitutional? Probably not.

So this will enter this weird limbo state almost. If the DOJ isnt appealing here they might not appeal. We will see.

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

While this fight isn't over, as the law remains on the book.

As a GOA member excited to see this win from the OBBBA finally resolve itself!

[Gun Owners of America @GunOwners]

🚨BREAKING🚨

Congressman Andrew Clyde has "received confirmation from the Trump Administration that the DOJ will NOT appeal our historic court victory against the NFA."

Thank you, President Trump, for restoring our Second Amendment rights and gutting the National Firearms Act!

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

NOT A LAWYER DO NOT USE OUR ADVISE

The NFA regulations were declared unconstitutional because there was no longer a tax attached to them.

The judge who declared them unconstitutional did NOT do a national injunction. Members of GOA were one of the categories of individuals who dont have to follow those struck down regulations. There are some others as well, and 17 states.

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

SNAP benefits by state has fallen in all 50 states.

Some more than others.

National about 5 million less people are on SNAP.

Arizona lost 54% of its Snap recipients. Texas lost 15%, Florida lost 22%, Georgia lost 27%.

California lost 7%, New York lost 6%, Illinois lost 12%.

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

Polling is bad and it isn't just overpolling progressives.

Minnesota
Poll Average: 🔵Flanagan +2
Actual: 🔵Flanagan +20

Poll Average: 🟡Lindell +7
Actual: 🔴Demuth +6

Wisconsin
Poll Average: 🔴Tiffany +60
Actual: 🔴Tiffany +91

Poll Average: 🔵Hong +24
Actual: 🟡Crowley +0.5

Michigan
Poll Average: 🔵El-Sayed +15
Actual: 🔵El-Sayed +1

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

The new social contract is Gen Z gambling their money to older folks and then giving the related taxes to them as well.

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

@Morris_Fan_ Likely has something to do with too many connections in the state.

Everyone is asking for opposing favors for endorsements, and unlike other states FL, everyone has been to Mar-a-lago. So.

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

Trump redid his Florida Endorsements.

- Donalds, Uthmeier, Moody, Simpsons for their statewide spots.
- Only open seat was FL-16 after he backed Sydney.
- All other open seats he remains quiet.
- He also reendorsed all the incumbent Congressmen, except Cory Mills.

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

No.

Generally primary polling is different from general polling, and typically it can change on a dime.

Last second buys and such. As we normally grade based on averages of polls instead of their last, primary polls is also bad for that.

Minus sponsored polls or very interesting primaries most pollsters only do 1 primary poll.

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

Polling is bad and it isn't just overpolling progressives.

Minnesota
Poll Average: 🔵Flanagan +2
Actual: 🔵Flanagan +20

Poll Average: 🟡Lindell +7
Actual: 🔴Demuth +6

Wisconsin
Poll Average: 🔴Tiffany +60
Actual: 🔴Tiffany +91

Poll Average: 🔵Hong +24
Actual: 🟡Crowley +0.5

Michigan
Poll Average: 🔵El-Sayed +15
Actual: 🔵El-Sayed +1

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

The DOJ has indicted, the former CFO of the SPLC in a Montgomery court.

The new charges are:
Charges of conspiracy to commit wire fraud
Conspiracy to submit false statements to a federally insured bank

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

The new social contract is Gen Z gambling their money to older folks and then giving the related taxes to them as well.

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

Gen Z is moving money from stocks to sports betting in wealth plans, 52% of them have redirected inv funds to sports betting and quarter of them treat sports betting as a deliberate part of their long-term financial plan, according to survey from Betterment. Wow.

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

Yeah we are cooking.

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

One of the best, @karolineleavitt, will be taking a step back from her job as Press Secretary.

She wants to spend more time with her family, she will be missed!

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

Multiple reasons.

Reason 1 was the Federal Work Requirement in areas with "sufficient jobs" made some Native areas previously exempt, no longer exempt.

The OBBBA also added that states with a higher mispayments will be penalized by having to pay part of their SNAP, which Arizona was at about 11% error. Which was the highest tier.

This caused AZ to basically rework how they approve SNAP and renew.

[Verexel @verexel]

Dawg why did AZ lose so much more than everyone else.

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

@HFCEnjoyer Interesting.

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

There is an exception!

Quantus Insights basically got SC Special perfect (mean 1.8 miss), and considering a special is harder to figure out the LV model, speaks to the qualilty of the poll.

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

Polling is bad and it isn't just overpolling progressives.

Minnesota
Poll Average: 🔵Flanagan +2
Actual: 🔵Flanagan +20

Poll Average: 🟡Lindell +7
Actual: 🔴Demuth +6

Wisconsin
Poll Average: 🔴Tiffany +60
Actual: 🔴Tiffany +91

Poll Average: 🔵Hong +24
Actual: 🟡Crowley +0.5

Michigan
Poll Average: 🔵El-Sayed +15
Actual: 🔵El-Sayed +1

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

SNAP benefits by state has fallen in all 50 states.

Some more than others.

National about 5 million less people are on SNAP.

Arizona lost 54% of its Snap recipients. Texas lost 15%, Florida lost 22%, Georgia lost 27%.

California lost 7%, New York lost 6%, Illinois lost 12%.

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

Suing to discharge mentally ill patients has been policy for 20 years?

Yeah sounds about right.

[Shiloh Marx @Shilohmarx]

🚨IT'S OFFICIAL: DOJ's Civil Rights Division has QUIETLY ENDED its 20-year policy of suing states to discharge mentally ill patients from institutions under Olmstead.

Per AAG Harmeet Dhillon's July 13 directive:

"The Department will not rely upon the Olmstead Guidance in its enforcement of Title II of the ADA."

The homeless-NGO complex is losing its backbone.

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

Today we learned that people think Congressman apparently approve H-1Bs for their districts.

There are plenty of the online right masses who genuinely lack any understanding of how the government works. This strongly overlaps with people who dislike Trump.