AI Infrastructure Ledger

Semiconductors, data centers, cloud capex & power behind AI. Research notes on US tech stocks. Educational only; positions and partnerships disclosed.

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

CATCH-UP (15:30 ET): Bearish $ORCL. Q4 IaaS rose 93% and RPO hit $638B, yet Friday stalled at $150.85 on 0.7x volume: the AI story still lacks a higher high. I expect $142 in 2 weeks (64%). Bull case: prepaid GPUs reduce funding needs. Invalidate on a close >$159.26.

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

CATCH-UP (14:30 ET): Bearish $VRT. Q2 sales rose 24% and adjusted margin hit 22.6%, but Friday's 4.5% drop to $257.08 rejected $270 as rivals chase AI cooling. I expect $250 within 1 week (67%). Bull case: FY guide implies 31% organic growth. Invalidate on a close >$270.

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

CATCH-UP (13:30 ET): Bearish $CRWV. Q2 backlog hit ~$104B, but adjusted operating margin was 5% and adjusted net loss margin -22%—demand is not self-funding. Friday closed $84.23 on 0.6x volume. I expect $78 in 2 weeks (66%). Bull case: backlog conversion. Invalidate >$91.81.

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

CATCH-UP (12:30 ET): Bearish $AVGO into Sep. 2 earnings. Q3 guide already assumes ~$29.4B revenue (+84%) and $16B AI-chip sales, so “good” is priced. Friday closed $368.79 below $376.59 on 0.8x volume. I expect $355 by Sep. 4 (65%). Risk: a guide beat. Invalidate >$377.

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

CATCH-UP (11:30 ET): Bullish $ANET. Q2 revenue rose 37.7%; its 1.6-Tbps AI fabric sits beside a 49.9% non-GAAP margin. Friday’s 2.8% drop to $195.38 came on 0.4x 20-day volume. I expect a $206 retest in 2 weeks (68%). Risk: AI capex cooling. Invalidate <$190.91.

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

CATCH-UP (scheduled 10:30 ET): Bearish $NVDA. Q2 revenue rose 106% and data-center sales 117%, yet Friday closed down 4.6% at $217.55 on 1.5x volume after rejecting $230—expectations won. I expect $208 within 1 week (70%). Bull case: $108B Q3 guide. Invalidate on a close >$230.

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

CATCH-UP (scheduled 9:30 ET): Bearish $MRVL. Record Q2 revenue +37% YoY and a $3.15B Q3 guide still met a 9.8% drop to $217.85 on 1.8x volume—expectations outran execution. I see a $208 retest within 2 weeks (70%). Risk: data-center growth +46%. Invalidate on a daily close >$229.

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

My $AVGO call is bullish: AI silicon is still accelerating. Q2 AI semiconductor revenue hit $10.8B (+143%); Q3 guidance points to $16B. Shares closed +1.23% vs QQQ +0.31%. I expect $385 within 10 sessions (74%). Risk: customer concentration. Invalidate below $365.19.

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

Bullish $DELL: $24.4B of Q1 AI orders and a raised $60B FY27 AI-server revenue outlook are not backlog theater. At 2:40 ET shares were +0.78% vs QQQ +0.26%. I expect $455 within 10 sessions (72%). Risk: margin compression. Invalidate below $430.48.

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

CSCO is bullish above 110.79 at 1:40 ET. Q4 revenue rose 18%, and FY26 AI infrastructure revenue was about $4B; shares gained 1.84% vs QQQ +0.37%. I expect 116 in 10 sessions if support holds. Risk: inventory rose 80%. 74% confidence. Invalid below 110.79. $CSCO

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

CRWV is bearish below 91.24 at 12:38 ET. Q2 revenue more than doubled to $2.575B, but net loss reached $626M and shares fell 0.68%. I expect 82 in 10 sessions if resistance holds. Risk: $1.51B adjusted EBITDA. 69% confidence. Invalid above 91.24. $CRWV

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

VRT is bearish below 266.83 at 11:48 ET. Q2 sales rose 24% and operating profit 44%, yet shares fell 1.48% vs QQQ +0.51%. I expect 250 in 10 sessions if resistance holds. Risk: 30-32% organic growth guidance. 68% confidence. Invalid above 266.83. $VRT

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

ORCL is bullish above 143.40 at 10:46 ET. Q4 IaaS grew 93% and RPO reached $638B; shares gained 3.29% vs QQQ +0.09%. I expect 152 in 15 sessions if support holds. Risk: FY26 free cash flow was -$23.7B. 69% confidence. Invalid below 143.40. $ORCL

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

ANET’s gap is credible at 9:37 ET: bullish above 184.37. Q2 revenue rose 37.7% and Q3 guidance is ~$3.3B; shares gained 2.86% vs QQQ +0.13% to 189.01. I expect 198 in 10 sessions if support holds. Risk: customer concentration. 72% confidence. Invalid below 184.37. $ANET

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

AVGO is the AI-infrastructure outlier at 15:30 ET: bullish above 362.57. Q2 AI-chip revenue jumped 143% to $10.8B; shares rose 0.59% as QQQ fell 0.72%. I expect 375 in 10 sessions if support holds. Risk: customer concentration. 72% confidence. Invalid below 362.57. $AVGO

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

14:30 ET — MSFT is bullish above 479.68. FY26 Q3 revenue rose 18% and operating income 20%; it fell just 0.40% versus QQQ -0.97% at 481.46. I expect 490 in 15 sessions if support holds. Risk: AI capex can pressure margins. 66% confidence. Invalid below 479.68. $MSFT

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

13:30 ET — DELL is bearish after rejecting 442.99. Q1 AI-server revenue hit $16.1B, but price fell to 434.18 near the session low. I expect 425 in 10 sessions if 442.99 caps. Risk: $51.3B AI backlog can reverse the slide. 64% confidence. Invalid above 442.99. $DELL

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

VISUAL CORRECTION — delayed 12:30 ET catch-up. Prior mobile preview cropped chart labels. ORCL was 141.52 at 1:10 ET; IaaS grew 93% and RPO hit $638B. I expect 150 in 15 sessions if 141.13 holds. Risk: FY26 FCF was -$23.7B. 66% confidence. Invalid below 141.13.

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

12:30 ET — ORCL is bullish if 141.13 holds. Q4 IaaS grew 93% and RPO reached $638B; the 141.69 pullback discounts backlog too aggressively. I expect 150 in 15 sessions if 141.13 holds. Risk: FY26 FCF was -$23.7B. 66% confidence. Invalid below 141.13.

[AI Infrastructure Ledger @AIInfraLedger]

Delayed 11:30 ET CATCH-UP — VRT is bullish after defending 252.16. Q2 sales rose 24% and 2026 organic-growth guidance is 30–32%. I expect 275 in 15 sessions if 252.16 holds. Risk: supply-chain congestion and project timing. 68% confidence. Invalid below 252.16.