A.J. Button

Financial writer/journalist. Looking for value names in Chinese tech & AI. Follow for my latest investment ideas.

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

Hello new followers who came from @BrianTycangco's post!

Here are the things you can expect me to tweet about on this account:

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

This is Grand Lisboa, a Chinese casino featuring striking architecture.

It is known for being the first Macau casino to offer Texas Hold'em Poker.

Today, many Chinese casinos offer Texas Hold'em, but Grand Lisboa remains the only building with its iconic shape.

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

@feanor_legend I don't expect Trump to do much. He might feel an urge to, but he's already dealing with too many complex global situations.

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

$NU selling off on Lula's victory:

Many NU shareholders are dismayed that the stock is down 18% on Lula's win.

The sentiment is "NU has performed so well under Lula, why would it stop?"

It's a valid question. In all likelihood, the selloff is overdone. However, when investing, it helps to know what the other side of the trade thinks. In this case, what NU bears are thinking is likely this: Trump is gonna massively retaliate against Brazil.

Bolsonaro Sr was one of Trump's main allies in his first term. Trump hasn't formally endorsed Bolsonaro Jr, but he has been involved in promoting right wing politicians in LatAm lately. Trump has been known to punish LatAm countries that defy him (Cuba) while rewarding those whose leaders align with him (Argentina). In the case of Brazil, Trump explicitly called for an end to the prosecution of Bolsonaro Sr, and started a trade war with Lula.

The bears' fear is most likely that Trump will punish Brazil for re-electing Lula, a leftist anti-Bolsonaro figure. Trump already increased tariffs on Brazil in the Lula era, maybe he's getting ready to go so far as sanctions?

Concluding note: I do not personally believe that Trump is about to sanction Brazil. I'm long NU and I think the selloff is overdone. I'm pretty confident, though, that the paragraphs above explain roughly what bears are thinking.

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

@ddash_ca yeah definitely

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

@ddash_ca Why is the real falling?

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

@EquityBrian Flat-ish

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

@TheRayMyers The high NPL ratio is the main reason I haven’t upgraded NU from a tiny position to a large one.
I also wonder if they’re going to be able to keep their high margins while plowing tons of money into expanding into the U.S.

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

@ApolloPerforms That is worth considering

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

@disk0nekted Yeah that’s true Trump cost the U.S. much trade.

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

@disk0nekted Maybe, yeah.

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

@eftegarie This in 2023 was one of my most successful stock recommendations ever. I also BOUGHT the stock, and profited.

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

@eftegarie He is the most likeable AI CEO, WTF

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

@eftegarie I wan monospace

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

@thulynnn Yeah I can definitely reschedule to February

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

I can't wait to visit Singapore! 🇸🇬

[Simon Høiberg @SimonHoiberg]

While Europe is crashing and burning (literally), I'm setting up a new business in Singapore 🇸🇬

The process of setting up a business here is so smooth - very straightforward and simple.

I also get:
- Safest country in the world
- No riots in the streets
- Everyone's behaving exceptionally
- Amazing tax deal
- Business friendly
- Advanced & high functioning

If your store got looted or your car trashed and burned, just know there are places in the world where they figured it out.

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

@CapexAndChill What do people think is gonna happen here? Lula's going to socialize NU or something?

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

@thulynnn I think I'll come within a few months, maybe January sometime.

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

@SokolGeoff 👊

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

Why are demanding hosts proving to be such a problem for AirBnb?

With UBER, the review system produced cleaner cars and better behaved drivers than the legacy system (taxis).

With $ABNB, the opposite has happened. Hosts don't want to clean their properties, a marked downgrade from hotel industry norms.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Airbnb hosts threaten to strike after the company bans them from forcing guests to wash dishes, strip beds, or take out trash before checkout.