ALeX Nguyen

"Misericordes sicut Pater”- Luke (6,36), Computer Hardware Specialist, Crypto Trader, Real Estate Investment

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Something I cannot quite understand

Why people take losing trades personally

The markets don't know you. They have no idea who you are. They could care less what your hopes, fears and aspirations are. The markets are totally cold. Unfeeling

So why take a losing trade personally

Probably because you have misplaced assumptions and expectations. You assume the market cares about you enough to offer a profit. Your expectations are falsely placed

When I enter a trade I expect it to be a loser. I assume it will be a loser. This way I take risk management seriously

I know my trading stats. Over 200 trades I can come within a 10% on my estimate of ROR, win rate, PF, etc

But on any given trade or series of trades I do not have a clue. I may think I know where a market is going, but in reality I have no idea

So why would I take a loss personally. A trade is nothing more than a datum point in a series of data points subject to random probability theory. A loss is not a personal indictment

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@ForgiatoBlow47 Oh well we dont care his words any more, Trump is weak leader

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

A harsh reality
Are you out to turn a little into a lot in a hurry?
Look folks, there has been tons of research done on the success rate of retail traders. By exchanges, regulatory agencies, brokerage houses, trading platforms, academic researchers and the like.
The numbers are in and you are a fool to begin with if you think your are an outlier -- although all retail traders think they are outliers (and they usually are on the left side of the bell curve distribution).
Expectations and eagerness to trade for the sake of money are inversely correlated with success. Sorry, but true (of course except for in your dream world).
You want to turn $50k into $5 million in five years? Well, go for it if you that is your dream. But know that professional career traders in zero-sum markets (like futures, day trading anything and crypto) plead with you to trade their asset class. Please, I beg you to trade futures (my asset class).
Fresh meat is always welcomed.
Maybe you are among the 2 in 1,000 that can with a few years of experience achieve back-to-back-to back-100% years. I do not want to do anything to prevent your effort. I wish you well. In 50 years I've witnessed many try.
Or, do you have realistic profit expectations and want to become excellent in some niche of market speculation?
Then you have a chance.
But your chance depends on your ability to protect your capital and avoid big losses.
Here is the reality folks -- the real world where 99% of us live.
Pick your asset class. Now have adequate capital (the amt is disputable but I use the figure of $50k). Next know that no matter what you do it will take three to five years to even pick up the scent of where your excellence might be hiding.
Your challenge will be to develop some scheme or system or approach that is repeatable. Every successful trader has a different method. No exceptions. You cannot copy anyone. There are reasons why I won't go into.
You might have to try a few different approaches to find what methods are suitable to you.
But here is the HUGE challenge you face.
You will have to keep your capital intact (relatively speaking) or have deep pockets to get through the three to five years of the steep learning curve.
You will also need to avoid the fast talkers who want you to believe they have your answers.
Following are appeals I received via email in just the past week from "reputable" trading services (these are verbatim):

-$10,000 into $30,417. 14 out of 20 trades doubled
-that's a 1,004% return in 6 days, turning a $605 bet into $6,684
-1004% on UMAC
- +100% on BBAI in a day
-See how stock flips could have made $92,000 in one year!
-Soured 1,025% in just six months
-convinced this could be this year's next 1,000%

You fall for these lines, you are done for. Another reality is that not everyone is made for crazy success in trading. Most people would be better off living frugally and putting as much money as they can into a 50% SPY, 30% fixed income, 10% energy and 10% precious metals portfolio and let it work over time. Then pursue a day job that excites you.

So, don't be conned by the circus acts that promise you the moon. Trading is hard work. Tedious. Boring often. Stressful.

My standard recommendation to most young people is to get an education in a field that you like and where jobs are available. Like welding. Or supply chain management. Or engineering.

98% of you young folks will thank me for this advice someday.

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@Osint613 Never mind, but Trump is really really hated by the American and the world now!

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@elonmuskrosay Trump

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@Natalia_yael4 100% but not Trump admin, for sure🫰

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@0ivankaTrump1 Never

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@Nemiaishere YES

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@israelititan Trump is the loser, dont need his admin Israel still stand strong 🫰

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@DanBig9953 YES, and Fck Trump

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@igchampcom I respect him the greatest leader of the 21st century, Trump is just a cloud 🫰

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@NiohBerg Yeah, Israel is actually still stronger than without the Trump admin, Trump is the loser

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@Netanyahu_News C.

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@magicLgge C. Yes, I do

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@israelititan A. He is the great leader, not like the bigmouth Donald Trump, Trump just made a big mistake

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@MOSSADil LOL Trump is idiot when trying to deal with terrorists

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@itswpceo Bullshit, the world and American hate Trump the most, Fuck Trump

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@MOSSADil the Trump's peace deal is bullshit

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Taking a profit is often a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" dilemma.
While taking a profit is always better than taking a loss, there are times when taking a profit can create anxiety and outright regret.
Let's say you buy a stock at 50 with a mental target of 100 and maybe the possibility of 150.
Next let's say the stock goes to 100 but you do not take profits.
Next let's say that your trailing stop (if you use these) takes you out of the trade at 80.
Do you then regret not taking profits at 100? Of course you do if you are even part human being.
But what if you would have taken profits at 100 but then the stock kept running? Chances are you would have also regretted the decision to take profits at 100.
You see, taking profits is a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't business.
I hate regret. I decided many decades ago in my 50 year career that regret is something a trader needs to avoid. Living in a cycle of regret is not healthy for trading will sooner or later come back to bite you.
So I made a decision to create rules and stick by them. Rules created process for me so that my emotions were not led around by my last or current trade.
I take profits at targets when I have a light position on. If I take a heavier position I will then take profits at the initial target on a portion of my trade and hold out for a 2X profit on the other portion.
Do I miss the occasional rocket-ship market by taking profits? Of course. There is no perfect trading plan.
There is an alternative way that from time to time I will employ in a trade. That is using a simple moving average on a partial position so that I adopt a trend following approach on some of the risk I take.
In a trade following approach inevitably the top cannot be picked so some money is given back at the trend change or major correction. But again, there is no perfect model.
My recommendation to new traders is to commit yourself to the path of least regret, whatever that might be.

[ALeX Nguyen @ALeXusCrypto]

@MOSSADil Fck Macron toy-boy 🤧