A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan

Commentary and forum on post-Trump progressive policies and strategies, answering the question "What, then, must we do?" issue by issue.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

I'm all for Medicare for All, but if you're working under the delusion that it's the solution to rising healthcare costs, you're in for a sad awakening.

This is where your extreme lefty magical thinking meets reality.

Yes, big savings can be achieved if the three interacting medical bureaucracies (insurance staff, provider admin staff, government healthcare staff) can be reduced or eliminated.

However, Medicare reimburses hospitals 12% less than their costs for Medicare patients. Medicaid reimbursement is even lower.

The much-higher payments from private insurance and Obamacare make up for caregivers' losses on Medicare.

So if the 66% of Americans who have private insurance and the 10% on Obamacare insurance are merged into Medicare and hospitals get reimbursed for them at Medicare rates, then thousands of hospitals would go bankrupt and close.

Oops.

The solution is a far more radical change than just Medicare-for-all. Study Denmark: better care at half the cost per capita of the U.S.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

@Realknottalib @TheEXECUTlONER_ It's actually 5.09(b)(11) and 5.09(b)(2), not "509."

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

The official rules state that (1) he is subject to being tagged for not returning straight to the base (assuming that time has not been called) and (2) that the umpire could call him out for abandonment if the ump concludes that he's heading back to the dugout. Rules 509(b) (11) and 509(b)(2).

FYI: it behooves one to look up the rules before arguing with me because I do.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

@lyajohan @TheEXECUTlONER_ If you mean he tagged the hitter/runner, the video seems to show that you are wrong on that point. He tagged only the one standing on first. If you listen to the video sound, you can hear others yelling to him to step on the base to get that runner out.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

No, ignorant one, Medicare does not set prices for the 66% of Americans whose care is paid by private insurance, or Obamacare exchange insured patients, self-pays, or veterans hospital or military hospital patients. Nor does it set prices for Medicaid patients.

It sets prices of care only for the 21% of the population who are Medicare patients.

Even for that 21%, CMS (the agency that administers Medicare) doesn't set prices by itself in a vacuum. Each year, physician reimbursement rates are negotiated. Typically, CMS accepts 90% of the price increases recommended by the RUC.*

*Look it up. Learn something.

Congress also gets into the act; masses of medical lobbyists go to Capitol Hill and persuade Congress to force CMS to raise doctors' pay for this or that. Happens all the time.

The same dynamic happens with hospital prices. CMS gets pushed into raising hospital reimbursements.

You should quit this discussion. You have already demonstrated that this subject is far beyond your knowledge and your intellectual limitations.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

I don't support United Healthcare, fool. I support facts. If you want to fix the problem, you need to know what the problem is. You are demonstrating that you lack a clue.

So here are some facts:
1. New healthcare technology. It's the biggest cost driver: gene therapy, robotics, GLP-1 drugs, gene therapy, advanced diagnostics, electronic health records, et cetera.

2. Big healthcare providers (not insurance companies) have created local and regional monopolies and force insurance companies to pay what they demand or their patient in that area aren't covered. This is the second biggest single factor in constantly rising health care costs.

In fact, UnitedHealthcare got into this scheme late by buying Optum, which in turn buys up local physician practices.

3. Doctors' income has risen from about $210,000 to $374,000 in the past dozen years -- almost 80%.

4. Insurers have no control over that price-gouging. In fact, by law, they are forced to pay 85% of the premiums they collect in benefits to providers. Their staff pay, office rent, utilities, IT costs, taxes, and profits all come out of that other 15%.

5. Obesity is a giant and rising factor in healthcare costs. Obese people get all the very expensive chronic diseases at much higher rates: diabetes, heart disease, cancers, major orthopedic breakdowns (hips, knees), etc. The percentage of obese Americans has risen from 16% when I was a college student to 40% now. We are by far the fattest big country in the world. And the new obesity drugs being passed around like Halloween candy cost about $1,000 a month per obese person, multiplied by about 15 to 20 million Americans currently on these drugs.

6. The giant, growing bureaucracies that your health insurance pays for.
--Care providers' administrative staffs have risen from 1.1 million people to 2.9 million at significantly higher wages per employee since 2000.
-- Health insurance company staffs have risen from 340,000 to 585,000 at significantly higher wages per employee since 2000.

If you insist on doing nothing but yammering like an idiot about the insurance companies' profits and calling me names because I point out that you're ignorant, you will never see the real causes or grasp the path to solving the problem.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

@hitchrogers @Acyn Yes, exactly.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

@hitchrogers @Acyn Here's one of the 24x7 videos:
https://t.co/vf1CoatdB7

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

@KrollMik123 @DarrigoMelanie Translation into English: You know I'm correct, so you default to name-calling.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

Here are the official Treasury deficit numbers:
Trump FY 2017: $0.67 trillion
Trump FY 2018: $0.78 trillion
Trump FY 2019: $0.98 trillion
Trump FY 2020: $3.13 trillion.
Trump FY 2025: $1.78 trillion
Total: $7.34 trillion

FY 2021 is mostly Biden's, not Trump's. The appropriations are made the year before, but 75% of the actual spending and control over the spending takes place in the calendar year. The last round of COVID checks, for example, were a Biden decision.

Biden FY 2021: $2.77 trillion
Biden FY 2022: $1.38 trillion
Biden FY 2023: $1.70 trillion
Biden FY 2024: $1.83 trillion.
Total: $7.68 trillion.
Source: https://t.co/BtAZ4TQFjk

Also, if one were to calculate your way, and count FY 2021 as Trump's, subtracting Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, and put the $1.78 trillion FY 2025 deficit on Biden's ledger, then the comparison would be even less favorable to Biden.

This is not a defense of Trump's insane budget profligacy. But saying he was worse than Biden before 2026 is delusional. Up through last year, Biden was a much worse spendthrift.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

That $4.6 trillion you're citing is a fake number. The real amount added to the debt in FY 2020 is $3.13 trillion (which was bad enough).

Here's why it's fake: The government did indeed borrow $4.6 trillion under Trump in 2021, but crucially, IT DID NOT SPEND ALL OF IT. The spending total created an FY 2020 deficit of $3.13 trillion. That is the real number.

The stated National Debt accounts for only total amounts BORROWED by the Treasury plus interest, not amounts borrowed minus cash sitting in Treasury accounts.

So yes, Trump borrowed $4.6 trillion. However, at the end of the Trump administration, the Treasury was holding onto an unprecedented $1.8 trillion in cash.

Again, that unspent cash did add to the formal, stated "National Debt" (that is, money borrowed). But it did not add to the actual national debt (amounts borrowed minus cash on hand).

Trump could have paid that $1.8 trillion back on his last days in office. But he did not.

Then in 2021, the Biden administration spent nearly $1 trillion of that borrowed money and paid back about $600 million of it.

Biden's deficit in FY 2021 was an extremely wasteful* $2.8 trillion. However, because he used about $1 trillion of the previously-borrowed money, he borrowed only about $1.8 trillion in FY 2021, thus adding "only" about $1.8 trillion to the national debt.

*The economy was already roaring back from COVID by January 2021; there was arguably no real need for deficit spending to send new COVID checks.

Biden faced a clear choice: Bill Clinton-style fiscal responsibility or pork-barrel spending. He chose the pork barrel. The really BIG pork barrel.

The big question (which you seem to be making monumental effort to avoid) is:

What is the Democratic plan going forward?

And what's yours -- tax the rich?

Yes, of course, raise taxes on the rich.

But as I previously wrote, three AI bots calculated that rescinding every tax cut back to an including Reagan's will get us about third of the way to balancing annual budgets --at most.

So again, what's the Democrats' plan? What's yours?

I have one that would get us most or all of the way toward balanced budgets.

Mine would also provide healthcare to everyone.

What's yours? Keep ranting, "Trump is bad"? We already know that.

You'll be able to read all about my plan when I get around to creating the New Democratic Deal discussion forum on Substack.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

@NotHoodlum @iamgabesanchez Either way, what this points to as the fundamental cause is the same extremely reactive, toxic element in the periodic table: Trumpium.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

I looked it up again.

You're correct that hydrogen peroxide can cause paint to detach, but:

"Pool experts point to a failure to properly prepare the surface and hydrostatic pressure as the primary reasons the "American flag blue" coating is delaminating from the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in giant sheets. While the timing of the hydrogen peroxide treatment raised eyebrows, chemical analysis and industry experts suggest it played a secondary role at most. "

1. So says Google, citing NBC News, in turn citing experts.

2. Washington Post: "Steve Goodale, a swimming pool expert who viewed footage of the peeled sheet of paint, believes the pool’s surface may have been improperly prepared for the treatment.
“If there are any deficiencies with the surface prep, the surface can fail just like you see here,” he said, via email, “sheets and chunks peeling off.” Another culprit, he added, could be groundwater or pool water seeping underneath the lining.
"Hydrogen peroxide can affect a pool’s surface, too, but not in the same way: “Less of a sheet peeling off and more like fading, hazing or breakdown of the material,” he said."

3. Reddit r/chemistry -- most likely surface prep or water intrusion from below:
https://t.co/nnupt9SU2a

4. Swimming Pool Steve on Youtube: Most likely surface prep or pressure from below, just as he told the Post: https://t.co/j9QDmk9Cgx

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

What is unfair or unreasonable about a rule that bans premeditated, wholly optional antagonistic behavior toward an opponent?

It's not as if this is an infraction that occurs instantaneously in the heat of competition.

How hard is it, what sort of strain on the body or soul is it, to comply with the rule?

The rule was imposed because covering the mouth was routinely used to hide racist and homophobic comments.

So what you're arguing is that it should be permissible to call someone the N-word or any other personal slur while masking your lips from lip-readers so that no one can see evidence that you did so.

Moreover, as the star of the team, why, one might ask, is he engaging in such behavior? What sort of example is that? And it's a one-game suspension, not three.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

Prompt:
In MLB, in a situation in which a runner is trying to advance and a fielder is trying to field the ball in the same location, who has the right of way? For example, is it interference by the runner if, in merely running the basepath, he forces the fielder to slow down his charge to the ball to avoid a collision? Or does the runner have the right of way? Cite the correct MLB rule. "
MLB: Fielder has the right of way. https://t.co/IikTx4qHOw

DeepSeek AI: fielder has the right of way.

Claude AI: fielder has the right of way. Rule 6.01.

ChatGPT: fielder has the right of way. Rule 6.01.

Gemini AI: "In Major League Baseball, the fielder has the absolute right of way when they are in the act of fielding a batted ball." Rule 6.01.

Grok: "The fielder has the right of way when attempting to field a batted ball." Rule 6.01.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

@PedroRubberBall @DNVR_Rockies 🤣Only when he's insulting the opposing ump under FIFA rules.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

@BizziBob @DNVR_Rockies Speed up, slow down, go behind the fielder, stop, whatever. The rule is that the fielder has an absolute right of way. See my other response in this thread.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

@shackel4044 @DNVR_Rockies Look up the rule.

[A New Democratic Deal-Commentary by Bill Donovan @ANewDemDeal]

Prompt: "
In MLB, in a situation in which a runner is trying to advance and a fielder is trying to field the ball in the same location, who has the right of way? For example, is it interference by the runner if, in merely running the basepath, he forces the fielder to slow down his charge to the ball to avoid a collision? Or does the runner have the right of way? Cite the correct MLB rule. "
MLB: Fielder has the right of way. https://t.co/IikTx4rfE4

DeepSeek AI: fielder has the right of way.

Claude AI: fielder has the right of way. Rule 6.01.

ChatGPT: fielder has the right of way. Rule 6.01.

Gemini AI: "In Major League Baseball, the fielder has the absolute right of way when they are in the act of fielding a batted ball." Rule 6.01.

Grok: "The fielder has the right of way when attempting to field a batted ball." Rule 6.01.

Evil Pepe Mogul: "no. the base runner has a right to the bath paths."

Me to Pepe: Look it up before you post.