Markus S

Weekly sentiment read on the Stock-market/AI-boom debate: media tone, flows, positioning — scored 0–100 every Sunday. Discretionary, not a model. Not advice.

[Markus S @AOTraeder]

I used to post weekly DAX analysis here. Then I stopped, in 2020.

Coming back with something different: a weekly 0–100 read on market sentiment — media tone, fund flows, positioning.

Discretionary, not a model. Not advice.

Method next post. First reading today.

[Markus S @AOTraeder]

Discretionary read, no backtest. One input among many, not a timing signal.

Not investment advice. Corrections go in their own post, never a silent edit.

[Markus S @AOTraeder]

Narrative Shift Meter: 50/100 (▼8 w/w)

Bubble warnings are back on magazine covers — and $22bn left US equity funds in a week the index still closed higher.

Price and positioning parted ways. 🧵

[Markus S @AOTraeder]

The read:

A record chip print was bought within hours. Breadth kept thinning. Money left anyway.

Meanwhile the market prices a coin-flip rate hike in under three weeks while equity vol sits at a year-to-date low.

Those two facts don't belong in the same week.

[Markus S @AOTraeder]

Limits, stated up front:
- discretionary, no backtest
- one observer, so one bias
- not a timing tool, not a forecast
- no single names, no positions of mine

Corrections get their own post. Never a silent edit.

[Markus S @AOTraeder]

What the Narrative Shift Meter actually measures
— and the part that trips people up. 🧵

[Markus S @AOTraeder]

Scale: 0 = bulls capitulate · 70+ = warning zone
· 100 = euphoria.

Every week I publish the level, the change, and
the single headline or event that moved it.

[Markus S @AOTraeder]

It's a discretionary read, not a model.
No backtest. One input among many, never a
timing signal.

Not investment advice.

Method in the next post. First reading today.

[Markus S @AOTraeder]

Every weekend I score market sentiment 0–100:
media tone, fund flows, positioning, surveys.
Same format, every week.

I built it because everyone is asking whether
this is an AI bubble — and I wanted something
better than a gut feeling to answer with.

[Markus S @AOTraeder]

@Allianz The inspiring @MichaOhneL , who moved from Munich to Seattle some time ago and realized his dream. Circle would close ito see a Seahawks game in Munich.

[Howard Lindzon @howardlindzon]

Doctors and nurses are important but nobody thanks the Toner guy working the printer at the Treasury.

Thanks man.

[Markus S @AOTraeder]

No #dax analysis at the moment. Moneywise, its important to protect your money in these times. There is so much volatilty, dont gamble. Safe ur bankroll and wait until stock markets stabilize. But more important, stay healthy. Be short on socaial interactions. #SocialDistancing

[Markus S @AOTraeder]

#Trump brings definition "Troll" to a new level :)

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

BIGGEST STOCK MARKET RISE IN HISTORY YESTERDAY!

[Markus S @AOTraeder]

#dax More than just damage was done. To all, who traded that short trigger around 12.900, well done. Momentum break of 200 EMA as well, so more short moves are likely. So watch out for weak consolidation moves, for new short entries. At least 11.000/11.300 is likely.

[Markus S @AOTraeder]

#dax Shorting at alltime highs is not a good idea. Lets see if market is topping out, but as long we trade above 13.000/12.900 without any strong bearish momentum you should be careful with your shorts. Long is to expensive atm for me. So stay in cash or trade other markets .