BREAKING: The US 10Y Note Yield officially surges above 4.70% for the first time since January 2025.
This puts yields above the "Liberation Day" high in April 2025, set to drive interest rates to new 52-week highs.
The bond market is flashing red.
BREAKING: Houthis have hit a pair of Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea with missiles and drones
The attack comes after the Houthis declared Red Sea naval blockade on Saudi Arabia and its trading partners, warning vessels against entering the Bab-el-Mandeb.
Florida's housing downturn is entering a new stage: severe mortgage distress.
It now ranks #1 in the U.S. for foreclosures.
And we're starting to see listings like this, where the homeowner is trying to sell for $130,000 less than they paid in 2022.
That's a 40% loss in just four years.
Many people who bought near Florida's housing peak in 2022-23 are now running into financial trouble.
But what's remarkable is that mortgage distress is still nowhere near 2008-09 levels. Yet we're already seeing individual homes lose 40% of their value.
If this trend continues, today's discounts may only be the beginning.
Check the value estimate of any listing with Reventure's analyzer: https://t.co/nXb7WRppuD
Bearish bets on US stocks are surging:
Short interest in the S&P 500 is up to ~3.7% of its free float, near the highest in data going back to 2010.
Short interest in the Russell 3000 is up to ~6.1%, also near an all-time high.
Both metrics have steadily increased since the start of 2025.
Furthermore, short interest across all NYSE-listed stocks rose to a record 9.0% of shares outstanding in late June.
By comparison, this metric peaked at ~5.0% during the 2008 Financial Crisis and ~6.0% during the 2020 pandemic.
Conditions for a short-squeeze are rising.
China is leading the global nuclear race:
China now has 39 nuclear reactors under construction, more than the next 12 countries combined.
This is followed by India and Russia, at 8 and 7, respectively, less than half of China's total combined.
China also has a much younger pipeline of nuclear projects, with reactors currently under construction averaging just ~2.8 years since work began.
By comparison, the global average stands at ~5.8 years, inflated by long-delayed projects, such as India's 22-year construction timeline and Brazil's 16-year timeline.
Meanwhile, the US currently has no large commercial nuclear reactors under construction.
China is building the world's largest pipeline of nuclear reactors.
BREAKING: Trump announces the US will hit Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility "pretty soon very heavily," adding "there's nothing they can do about it," indicating he will use nuclear earth-penetrating bunker busters, as these are the only weapons that can properly destroy pure granite mountain fortifications at depth of up to 145 meters.
BREAKING: At least 8 oil tankers have aborted transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait following the Houthi naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, including 3 Chinese VLCCs carrying Saudi crude.
Three tankers loaded with Saudi crude bound for China and one for India have made U-turns in the Red Sea and are now aborting their transit through the Bab El-Mandeb.
4 additional tankers turning north in the Red Sea have been identified as Agios Gerasimos, MICA, NAVIG8 Express, and Trust.
BREAKING: Brent crude oil prices surge above $91/barrel as the Iran War continues to escalate.
US gas prices are officially back above $4.00 per gallon.
Today we learned what $1 Million to the MAGA Inc. PAC gets you: A public apology from @US_FDA for opening an investigation into your company. Incredible.
• March 2025: Taylor Farms contributes $1 million to Make America Great Again Inc., days after the FDA delays the Food Traceability Rule.
• The FDA informs Taylor Farms that one of its iceberg lettuce products tested positive for cyclospora, prompting a voluntary recall.
• During the cyclospora outbreak: The New York Times reports Taylor Farms hires a former Trump White House official.
• Last week: Taylor Farms executives meet with White House and FDA officials, where the company challenges aspects of the government's outbreak conclusions, according to the New York Times.
• Now: Taylor Farms says the FDA apologized, calling the positive test a false positive and stating no Taylor Farms product has tested positive for cyclospora.
BREAKING: Yemen’s Houthis announce a "maritime embargo" against Saudi Arabia, effectively banning Saudi maritime traffic through the Bab al Mandeb Strait.
Saudi Arabia exports 4.5 million barrels of crude oil per day through this key waterway.
US debt growth is outpacing everything since 2000
CAGR since 2000:
- US debt: 7.7%
- Nominal GDP: ~4.5%
- Interest expenses: 6.7%
- 10Y Treasury: 4%
- Gold supply: 1.5%
Imagine you're a central bank looking at this chart.
Would you rather own debt that's compounding at almost 8% in an economy growing at roughly half that pace while yielding ~4%...
Or an asset whose supply grows by just ~1.5% per year?
One asset becomes more abundant every year... The other remains scarce.
Federal Reserve purchases of US Treasuries 1-year or less just surpassed $500 billion.
Back in December 2025 Jerome Powell claimed this intervention was necessary because of a potential liquidity shortage in April 2026 tax season.
We are now 3 months after tax season and the Fed is still purchasing roughly $40 billion worth of T-Bills per month.
The only other time we've seen interventions like this was in the lead up to the 2020 "virus" that they used to cover up the REPO banking crisis.
We still have no idea what's going on here or why the Federal Reserve continues to massively intervene.