APlus

College Basketball Talk!

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

My final bracket for 2026- my first year doing this!

▪️ Moved Purdue to a 2 seed, regardless of outcome today.

▪️Penn slots in as a 14, bumping N Dakota St to a 13 and UNI to a 12!

▪️ Auburn and SMU barely hang on to the field.

▪️ CONTINGENCY: If Wichita comes back against USF, they would be a 12 with Akron as an 11.

#bracketology #BracketMatrix #MarchMadness #BubbleWatch

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

I like this better than the current system, but I still dont like the idea of certain one-bid leagues being in scenarios where they benefit greatly from a specific team losing. Like if the MVC would get a second bid from Belmont losing, i feel like it would create a super weird vibe for 1-bid conference tournaments.

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

@BuckeyeDore Who couldve predicted something like that? 😂😂

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

@trumwill @clonesjer I mean just go look at their Wins Above Bubble ratings... neither of those teams were even CLOSE to Texas

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

Yeah unfortunately it came down to non conference performances- not the conference performances. Cincy lost to an atrocious Eastern Michigan team, and WVU didnt beat a single top 100 team in non con. Not that Texas was extremely impressive there either... but they were better than either of those teams.

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

@BuckeyeDore I honestly think the committee messed up with this one

[JBR @JBRBracketology]

Closing thought on why I had Auburn in the field:

-6 of 7 Auburn metrics were <= 44 (#44 was the last at-large team selected)
-Auburn is the first team to ever miss the field (NET era, since 2018-19 season) with every metric <= 46 as of Selection Sunday
-Excluding teams that won 3+ conference tournament games, Auburn is the 1st Power Conference school to ever miss the field with both a NET and resume avg < 45.0
-Auburn is the first team to ever miss the field with a resume average < 50.0 and a true road win at a 1 seed
-Auburn had three notable elite wins over SEC regular season champ Florida (A), SEC Tournament Champ Arkansas (H), and Big East double champ St. John's (N)
-Auburn alone had six wins vs the at-large field. SMU, NC State and Miami OH combined had seven wins vs the at-large field
-Auburn played an extremely difficult schedule, #4 overall/ #15 Non Conference SOS, and the metrics account for this

Obviously, I could have gone with consensus and had Auburn out. But consensus also had West Virginia in last year... The Committee tends to throw us at least one curveball at the bubble. I took a shot, I was wrong. I can live with that.

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

Yeah I'd be fine with calling Navy/ Pitt and Mizzou/ UT a wash. Vandy/ USC wins can also be considered pretty equal. And then TAMU/ Oklahoma losses a wash as well. So then we're basically comparing a week 1 loss to FSU and 1-1 away from home vs Georgia to Notre Dame's 0-1 against Miami. In my mind, I was totally fine with giving the bid to the team that proved that they could beat a national champ contender- because I didn't feel like there were many teams who could do that this year. But to be fair Miami hadnt looked like a team who could beat a contender and they ended up beating 2!

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

It could work... but I'm not sure how they could be certain that they're weighting travel distances accurately. We wouldnt want to all of a sudden give teams a huge advantage for scheduling long-distance road games against mid teams lol. And i feel like NET and the metrics are already convoluted to the point where people don't trust them- and adding another complicated layer would probably only make that worse. Not that appeasing people should be the main goal of metrics but u know what i mean...

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

@BuckeyeDore Yeah the only other solution would be to somehow incorporate travel distance into the metrics so that not all home / road games are equal. But that sounds like a nightmare that would only be more controversial 😂

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

That's fair! I personally was very unimpressed with BYU all season and don't think they would have faired any better at all against IU. Notre Dame is valid though. It's just hard to compare a team who went 0-2 vs playoff-caliber competition to a team who went 2-2 plus a bad loss. Like do you take the team who proved they CAN beat elite teams but could also lose to a bad one? Or the team who hasn't proven either of those things? Its obv a tough call.

Also, I think it's worth noting that they didn't punish SMU last year for losing their champ game!

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

@XavierHarkness That's an interesting take! Did you think Oklahoma shouldve been in?

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

@XavierHarkness Oh? I didn't realize there were people thinking Alabama should have been out. Who did you think should've been in instead?

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

@XavierHarkness Thats true! Although nobody was really debating whether they should have been in, that was kind of a given.

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

@MiniHoopsAlert I agree that I think they should've been in regardless... although I wouldn't say "comfortably"... but I also don't hate the logic that a team who goes 0-5 against at-large tournament teams doesn't belong in. That was definitely a rough look for them

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

@kerrancejames Also Nebraska who had an argument for a 3 seed, but instead got a 4 AND placed in a pod with a 5 seed who ALSO had an argument for a 3 lol

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

@sportsdailymed Mizzou getting a pod in St. Louis 👀

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

@FizBracketology Yeah I kinda assumed I wouldn't do too well this year anyways. Just wanted to see where my mistakes were!

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

Looks like I went:

67/68 on the field
49/68 correctly seeded
66/68 correctly seeded within 1 line (WTF with Vanderbilt!?)

Honestly not that sure how good that is- but not too worried about that anyways. Had a lot of fun in my first year trying this and will look to improve next year!

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

@XavierHarkness Sorry if i gave that impression- SOS was not a factor in my decision! My only reason for having Auburn in was that last year the committee selected the field strictly by metrics and I thought this year would be the same. I was wrong though and you were right! Good work!

[APlus @APlusBrackets]

@XavierHarkness Do you think I'm an Auburn fan?