Antonio R Rai

Fintech pioneer. PE. The harder you work the luckier you get!

[Bloomberg @business]

Traffic and poor infrastructure, not cartel violence, will be the big threat to visitors coming for Mexico’s World Cup. Expect passion, fun and hospitality, not a Nordic transportation system, says @JPSpinetto (via @opinion) https://t.co/kfHzDoiENM

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

💯

[Emilio Vallejo Rangel-Larios @EmilioVallejoRL]

El tráfico de fentanilo ya no es la principal motivación del Presidente Trump para actuar en contra de la narco-política mexicana y los cárteles.

La CIA le presentó un informe que le dejó helado: México podría verse envuelto en una narco-guerra civil tan mortífera y violenta que haría palidecer a los más sangrientos conflictos de este tipo en el África subsahariana. No sería una simple disputa territorial como la que hoy se vive. Estados Unidos tendría de vecino a un Sierra Leona gigantesco.

Sí. Entre varios posibles escenarios, la inteligencia estadounidense concluyó que -de continuar la simbiosis entre el poder político obradorista y el crimen organizado-, en un plazo no mayor a 10 años, el Cártel de Sinaloa y el Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación alcanzarán tal poderío armamentístico y económico, que en vastas extensiones de México habrán reemplazado en su totalidad al Estado Mexicano, convirtiéndose en entes tan peligrosos como el Estado Islámico.

El peligro radica en que MORENA capturó el poder negociando con cárteles antagónicos. Quien sirve a dos amos, con uno queda mal. Tal escenario al resultaría extremadamente peligroso de suscitarse un hecho que rompa el tenso equilibrio entre pseudo-Estados delictivos y cárteles menores, desatando una conflagración armada al interior de México que derive en la mayor crisis humanitaria, geopolítica y económica que el mundo haya visto desde la Guerra de los Balcanes.

Homeland Security estimó que el conflicto llevaría a una severa crisis de refugiados movilizando a mínimo 45 millones de mexicanos intentando ingresar a Estados Unidos. Además, al menos otros 18 millones huirían a España, Colombia, Argentina, El Salvador, Panamá, Chile, Australia y numerosos países que no exijan visa a los mexicanos.

Por si fuera poco, los 40 millones de mexicanos que residen en Estados Unidos, apoyados por sectores políticos y sociales americanos y extranjeros, exigirían abrir la frontera a los refugiados, envolviendo a la Unión America en una delicada coyuntura, acepten o no a los susodichos.

Los estragos económicos no serían menores. La doceava economía global y principal socio comercial del Tío Sam sumido en un infierno de guerrillas paramilitares narco-terroristas comprometería severamente a la economía estadounidense. El efecto Tequila se extendería sobre Canadá, América Latina, importantes países de la Unión Europea e incluso afectaría a la región de Asia-Pacífico.

La respuesta del Gobierno de Claudia Sheinbaum al escándalo de Rocha Moya terminó de despejar las pocas dudas que había: México es un Narco-Estado con todas las de la ley.

De presentarse el escenario descrito, el Estado Mexicano sería totalmente incapaz de controlar la situación. El Ejército Mexicano estaría corrompido a tal nivel que actuaría como un simple brazo armado de los cárteles. Difícilmente ejecutaría un golpe de Estado que revierta la situación.

A Naciones Unidas no le quedaría más remedio que autorizar una intervención militar en México mediante una coalición internacional liderada por Estados Unidos. Trump, bajo ninguna circunstancia, quiere una guerra total con el vecino del sur; en cuyo caso tendría que hacerse cargo, contexto que aprovecharían China, Rusia, Irán o Corea del Norte para intentar algún golpe estratégico a los intereses estadounidenses.

En resumidas cuentas, si los Estados Unidos permiten que los cárteles continúen expandiendo su poderío a niveles insospechados, alentados por la impunidad que les garantiza el régimen narco-populista mexicano, las consecuencias podrían ser catastróficos.

De momento, Irán puede esperar. Trump necesita atar ese enorme cabo suelto al sur del Río Bravo.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on an all-time high $397 Billion in Cash, enough to buy 478 companies in the S&P 500 🚨🤑

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

S&P: MEXICO OUTLOOK DOWNGRADED TO NEGATIVE DUE TO ERODING FISCAL FLEXIBILITY; 'BBB' FOREIGN CURRENCY RATING MAINTAINED. ANTICIPATES TRADE TIES BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE U.S. WILL STAY ROBUST, THOUGH DOUBT OVER THE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT RENEGOTIATION DAMPENS INVESTMENT CONFIDENCE

[Barchart @Barchart]

Japan's 10-Year Yield just hit its highest level this century 🚨🤯👀

[Bloomberg @business]

Mexico Rating Outlook Revised to Negative at S&P as Debts Mount https://t.co/LOz6kb5Sdc

[JP Spinetto @JPSpinetto]

If the Mexican economy doesn't start to grow faster (+3% instead of 1%), the country's stable macro framework will get tested by markets..

➨ MEXICO OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE FROM STABLE BY S&P

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The world is using more US Dollars than ever:

Offshore US Dollar deposits held in banks outside the US are up to a record ~$14.5 trillion.

This is +220% more than the ~$4.5 trillion held at the beginning of the century.

By comparison, only ~$3.5 trillion worth of euros are held in offshore banks, outside the Eurozone.

And, the Fed and domestic commercial banks hold over $19.0 trillion.

This means offshore US Dollar deposits are now equivalent to~43% of US domestic bank deposits, with no other currency coming close to this percentage.

Global demand for USD is incredibly high.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

BREAKING: Odds of a recession this year plummet from 40% to 17% — a record low.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Risk appetite among investors is skyrocketing:

Risky asset fund inflows have exceeded safe asset fund inflows by a record $220 billion over the last 4 weeks.

Risky assets represent equities and corporate bonds, among others, while safe assets include money markets and Treasury bonds.

This stands in sharp contrast to 2025, when safe asset funds drew more inflows than risky funds for most of the year.

The recent surge even surpasses the highs of ~$200 billion seen during the 2021 meme stock frenzy.

To put this into perspective, during the 2020 pandemic, safe asset fund inflows exceeded risky fund inflows by more than $500 billion.

Investors are taking on more risk than ever.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

The US blockade aims to do two things: (i) give Iran a taste of its own medicine for blockading the Strait of Hormuz; (ii) send Iran’s economy into a tailspin and thereby bring the regime to the negotiating table in good faith. It’s doing both. https://t.co/YQ4wGpWVrd

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

🇺🇸 U.S. oil exports hit a record 6.4 million barrels per day

[Bloomberg @business]

Mexico’s economy shrunk by the most in nearly six years in the first quarter in the latest setback for President Claudia Sheinbaum https://t.co/vvIhPji1dR

[JP Spinetto @JPSpinetto]

Tough day for Latin America's leaders today:

➞ Sheinbaum had a top ally indicted in the US on drug charges 🇲🇽
➞ Lula humiliated by the Senate, which rejected his Supreme Court nominee 🇧🇷
➞ Milei stood up for his chief of staff amid illicit enrichment allegations

Never easy..

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

US economic data keeps surprising to the upside, while European data keeps surprising to the downside. That gap just keeps growing, according to Bloomberg economic surprise indexes.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Here's my discussion with @paulkrugman from March 19 where I argued oil prices won't go to $150 or $200 and recommended the US blockade Iran. It's as relevant to global oil markets today as it was back then. The blockade is working and Iran is in trouble.
https://t.co/q2xmlFYMku

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: OpenAI's pre-IPO valuation has officially hit a record $1 trillion.

Pre-IPO instruments trading onchain, backed 1:1 by SPV exposure on Jupiter, are providing a real-time proxy for the company’s implied IPO valuation.

OpenAI’s implied valuation is now up +163% since October 2025, when rumors first emerged of a potential $1+ trillion IPO.

This comes as Anthropic is also nearing a potential $1+ trillion IPO and SpaceX is reportedly targeting $1.7+ trillion.

The world has never had this many trillion-dollar private companies.

AI is accelerating.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The Trump Administration has asked FIFA to replace Iran with Italy in the upcoming World Cup amid the Iran War.

Trump's envoy argued that Italy’s four World Cup titles in the history of the tournament justify awarding it the slot.

The plan is reportedly an effort to "repair ties" between President Trump and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

The blockade is a success. It's crimping Iran's oil revenues materially while barely pushing up oil prices. There's an big lesson here. Had we done this to Russia, it wouldn't still be causing mayhem in Ukraine. Lots of lessons to learn for the future...
https://t.co/P8ylpTutU6