ASAP Agri Solutions

ASAP: ANALYTICAL SOLUTIONS FOR AGRICULTURAL PROBLEMS LTD is a dynamic consultancy offering round-the-clock support to agricommodities traders.

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Rapeseed: sell or wait?

📈 The Euronext rapeseed-to-wheat ratio climbed to 2.6 in June, well above the historical norm of around 2.0

“The spread between Ukrainian rapeseed CPT-port prices and the August Euronext contract currently stands at just -6 USD/MT — one of the strongest basis levels typically seen at this stage of the season,” says Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content & Analytics at ASAP Agri.

❓ What signals is Euronext sending to rapeseed sellers today?
❓ And where could prices head in the coming months?

📍 Full analysis exclusively on Latifundist 👉 https://t.co/ILovMKRRid

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🌽🇹🇷Corn market watches price reaction after temporary administrators appointed to 13 white meat companies in Turkey — ASAP Agri

Turkish authorities have appointed temporary administrators to 13 companies operating in the white meat sector as part of an investigation into alleged violations of competition rules, unjustified price increases and harm to consumers.

https://t.co/jo2mkiSP7B writes that the companies include:
- Banvit
- Akpiliç
- Bakpiliç
- Aspiliç
- Bupiliç
- Erpiliç
- Gedik Pazarlama
- Hastavuk
- Keskinoğlu
- Şenpiliç
- Orvital
- Aypi
- Lezita.

The move could influence corn market a lot, as the poultry sector remains one of the key consumers of feed grains. In the morning of 12 June, 2026, Ukrainian sellers rushed to offer their corn positions to Turkey.
"Turkey remains the key destination for Ukrainian corn in 2025/26 MY, accounting for around 30% of exports, or 5.7 MMT, from 1 October to 10 June", said Christina Serebriakova, CEO at ASAP Agri.
📍Special chart with Turkish corn prices and all quotas are available to ASAP Agri Premium subscribers.

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🌽 June WASDE adds fresh pressure to already weak corn market — ASAP Agri

The June WASDE report increased the global corn production forecast for 2026/27 by 5 MMT to 1300.4 MMT. However, the entire revision came from India, while production estimates for the major exporters were left unchanged.

More significant changes were made to the 2025/26 balance sheet. Global corn production was raised by 14 MMT, largely reflecting larger crops in India and South America. While revisions for South America had been widely anticipated, the increase for Brazil exceeded market expectations, with the crop forecast lifted by 3 MMT to 138 MMT. Argentina’s crop was raised by 2 MMT to 61 MMT, broadly in line with pre-report estimates.

On the trade side, global corn exports for 2026/27 were increased only marginally, by 0.7 MMT to 207.6 MMT, with no changes for the major exporting countries. For 2025/26, exports were revised higher more noticeably, including a 0.6 MMT increase for the U.S. to 84.5 MMT and a 0.5 MMT increase for russia to 3.8 MMT. Notably, the larger South American crops were not accompanied by higher export forecasts.

Global corn consumption for 2026/27 was raised by 7.7 MMT, but the increase was not enough to offset the larger supply outlook. As a result, global ending stocks were increased by 3.7 MMT to 281.2 MMT, exceeding the average range of market expectations, although inventories remain well below year-ago levels. Ending stocks for 2025/26 were also revised higher, up 6.4 MMT m/m.

Overall, the report added fresh bearish pressure to a market that was already struggling to find support. While many of the revisions were concentrated in India and South America’s export outlook remained unchanged, the global corn balance now appears less tight than previously expected. This is likely to keep pressure on CBOT corn futures in the near term, particularly given the lack of new bullish catalysts.

📍Detailed outlooks for all crops available to ASAP Agri Premium subscribers.

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🛳 Freight from Ukraine: Coaster and Handysize rates remain at previously achieved levels — ASAP Agri

During the reporting week, market activity remained particularly limited due to a major industry event taking place in Greece. As a result, it is difficult to determine the direction of freight rates due to the low number of concluded fixtures. However, it is still clearly evident that market fundamentals continue to be unfavorable for vessel owners. Freight rates were largely discussed within previously achieved levels, with persistent pressure from charterers.

📍Full report available to ASAP Agri Premium subscribers.

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Ask Victoria your questions at Grain Ukraine Conference — ASAP Agri

Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content & Analytics at ASAP Agri, joined the Grain Ukraine Conference on 4–5 June in Kyiv.

The event is a great opportunity to meet Victoria in person, talk through the latest grain market trends, and exchange views on what could define trade dynamics in the new season.

See you at Grain Ukraine! Join ASAP Agri Premium subscribers community! Enter the New Season fully equipped!

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Ukraine expands share in Egypt’s wheat imports as russian dominance eases – ASAP Agri

Egypt sharply increased purchases of Ukrainian wheat in July–April 2025/26, with Ukraine’s share in total Egyptian wheat imports rising to 23% from 15% over the same period last season. In volume terms, imports of Ukrainian wheat almost doubled to 3.3 MMT, compared with 1.7 MMT a year earlier.

“Egypt increased wheat imports this season to 13.9 MMT, up from 11.3 MMT in July–April last season, with Ukraine expanding its share and taking part of the market previously held by russian and French origins,” said Ahmed Elsebaie, General Manager at Egyptian Swiss Group.

Premium subscribers of ASAP Agri have already got next info:
🔹 The share of russian wheat and other origins in Egyptian wheat import
🔹 Latest wheat market prices CIF Egypt
🔹 Prospects for the new season import to Egypt

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🌽🌻Ukraine’s spring planting campaign is approaching completion as of 1 June. Despite earlier delays, corn and sunflower sowing have now exceeded last year’s pace, while soybean planting is also nearing the finish line.

👉 More details are available to ASAP Agri Premium subscribers — now through our dedicated report:

🌦 ASAP Weather & Crops Weekly

▪️ Fieldwork progress across Ukraine
▪️ Weather risks and short-term forecasts in Ukraine and globally
▪️ Crop condition insights and yield implications — both local and global
▪️ Clear maps and visuals for fast decision-making

📅 Released every Thursday

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#ASAPAgri #ASAPPremium #CropUpdate #UkraineHarvest #UkrainePlanting #WeatherForecast #GrainMarkets

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🛳 Freight from Ukraine: rates continue to slide amid limited market activity — ASAP Agri

Freight rates continued to soften during the reporting week as already subdued trading activity slowed even further, with many market participants in the Middle East away from their desks due to the Eid al-Adha holiday.

As a result, the persistent shortage of fresh cargoes continued to put pressure on vessel owners across the coaster and Handysize segments. Looking ahead, a major industry event scheduled in Greece at the beginning of June is expected to further reduce market activity, leaving owners with little choice but to show additional flexibility in order to secure employment for spot tonnage.

📍Full report available to ASAP Agri Premium subscribers.

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🌻 Argentina’s sunflower boom gains pace

📈 Argentina’s share in global sunflower oil exports is forecast to rise to 14% in 2025/26
🇮🇳 Argentina has already overtaken Ukraine in sunflower oil exports to India in 2025/26 so far
🌱 Sunflower acreage in Argentina expanded from 1.26 MHA in 2013/14 to nearly 3 MHA in 2024/25

“Argentina is building a structural advantage in sunflower. Export taxes on sunflower products have fallen toward 4%, while soybean products still face duties above 22%. According to Argentina's industry estimates, this could create an additional margin advantage of up to 150–200 USD/MT versus soybeans,” says Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content & Analytics at ASAP Agri.
❓ What else is driving Argentina’s sunflower boom?
❓ And what opportunities is it creating for the country’s crushing industry?

📍 Full analysis on Latifundist 👉 https://t.co/4juIDWOz9I

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🌾 Smaller crops do not automatically mean easier grain sales

That was one of the key messages shared by Kateryna Mudriian, Chief Analyst at ASAP Agri, during Profit Fert 2026 today.

Despite weather risks and lower global crop forecasts for 2026/27, high carry-over stocks are still keeping grain markets relatively well supplied — while competition for export destinations remains intense.

For Ukraine, this means the new season could become less about shortages and more about the battle for demand.

A special thanks to the Ukrainian information agency Infoindustry and its head Dmytro Hordiychuk for the invitation and continued trust. We truly appreciate that ASAP Agri has already been part of this forum for the third year in a row.

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🌍 Fertilizers are back in the market drivers' seat

Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran have already pushed fertilizer prices sharply higher.

For grain markets, this is no longer just about input costs. It is about acreage decisions, production risks, and global competitiveness.

That is why ASAP Agri joined Profit Fert 2026 as an analytical partner — a conference uniting key players of Ukraine’s fertilizer market to discuss the risks and opportunities shaping the new season.

🎤 Kateryna Mudriian, Chief Analyst at ASAP Agri, will present our outlook for Ukraine’s grain market in 2026/27, including:

▪️ production & export expectations
▪️ price dynamics
▪️ key fundamental signals for the season ahead

📍 Registration: https://t.co/uxAopFJt6t

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#ASAPAgri #ASAPSpeaks #ProfitFert #Fertilizers #GrainMarket #UkraineGrain

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Ukrainian barley prices fall as Turkish demand fades amid start of local harvest – ASAP Agri

Ukrainian old-crop barley prices continue to face pressure amid weak import demand from Turkey, where farmers have already started harvesting the 2026 crop.
“The harvesting campaign started on 24 May. Very initial results show test weight at 64–65 KG/HL in southeastern regions,” said Salih Karagöz, commodity broker at Atria Brokers.
Turkey is expected to harvest a significantly larger barley crop this year. USDA estimates 2026/27 production at 8.3 MMT (+63% y/y), while the Turkish Statistical Institute projects an even bigger crop of 9 MMT (+50% y/y).

As domestic supply increases, Turkey’s need for imported barley in 2026/27 could collapse. USDA currently estimates Turkish barley imports at just 150 KMT, down 90% y/y.

The start of the Turkish harvest has added additional pressure to Ukrainian barley prices, which were already weakening amid fading demand.

“A coaster parcel of Ukrainian old-crop barley was sold at 217 USD/MT FOB Danube,” said Dmitry Kromkin, commodity broker at Atria Brokers. This was around 5 USD/MT below old-crop offer levels reported at the end of last week.

As Turkish demand fades, the key question becomes: where will Ukrainian barley go next?

ASAP Agri has already analyzed the TOP destinations that may remain attractive for Ukrainian barley amid weakening Turkish demand. More details, trade flows and market insights are available in ASAP Agri Premium Analytics.

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🛳 Freight from Ukraine: bearish sentiment continues to prevail on market, Handysize rates remain steady though — ASAP Agri

Bearish sentiment continues to dominate the Black Sea market, with an acute shortage of fresh cargo orders. The cargo-to-tonnage imbalance remains especially severe in the coaster segment, where owners have little choice but to concede to charterers once workable firm cargo appears on the market. As a result, freight rates for coasters have edged down by a further 1–2 USD/MT on certain routes, while Handysize owners have so far been managing to prevent further declines.

📍Full report available to ASAP Agri Premium subscribers.

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🌾 The world is losing wheat. Will Ukraine really benefit?

📉 Production in 8 major exporters could drop by 48 MMT in 2026/27
📊 Exportable supply will decrease by only 24 MMT
🌍 MENA + Southeast Asia may cut imports by ~10 MMT

“Key wheat exporters are expected to close the current season with near-record carry-over stocks of 74.6 MMT. These stocks will cushion much of the production decline, shifting the global market from a very comfortable balance into a more sensitive one — not a real deficit,” — Victoria Blazhko, Head of Analytics & Content at ASAP Agri.
❓ Will a smaller global crop bring real opportunities for Ukrainian exports?
❓ Or are we heading into another tough battle for buyers?

📍 Full analysis on Latifundist 👉 https://t.co/SVLR8XNPxl

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#ASAPAgri #Wheat #BlackSeaGrain #GrainTrade #ASAPInsights #Latifundist

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🛳 Freight from Ukraine: rates for Coasters edge lower amid weak demand, while Handysize levels stay stable — ASAP Agri

No major changes were observed on the Black Sea freight market by mid-May, with the shortage of fresh cargo orders continuing to persist across both the Coaster and Handysize segments. However, during the reporting week the imbalance between available tonnage and cargo supply became particularly evident in the Coaster segment, forcing owners to concede amid an acute lack of firm cargoes. As a result, freight of coaster for grain shipments from Ukraine eased by around 1–2 USD/MT (depending on the destination), while Handysize rates remained at previously achieved marks.

📍Full report available to ASAP Agri Premium subscribers.

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🌾🌍Global grain export supply to remain strong in 2026/27 despite lower output — ASAP Agri

Global grain export supply in 2026/27 MY is expected to remain close to, or above, the five-year average, Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri, said during her presentation at the Grain Storage Forum in Lviv on 15 May.

“We are entering the new season with large grain carry-in stocks, which will partly offset the expected sharp decline in production. For the eight largest exporting countries, exportable grain supply may reach around 240 MMT. This would be 24 MMT lower than in 2025/26, but still well above the five-year average,” Blazhko said.

As a result, competition in the global grain market is expected to remain strong in the new season.

Follow ASAP Agri Premium Reports to catch the right market signals and make better-timed grain sales decisions.
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Global crop concerns and volatility erase old/new wheat spread in Ukraine — ASAP Agri

Buying ideas for Ukrainian 11.5% protein wheat are gradually strengthening on a CPT-port basis. Bids for old-crop wheat are currently seen at 224–227 USD/MT CPT, while new-crop bids are holding at a similar level of around 224 USD/MT CPT, Natalia Levkoniuk, trade advisor at ASAP Agri and broker at Atria Brokers, said on the sidelines of the UCAB Agrotechnology 2026 event on 24 May.

The absence of a price gap between old- and new-crop wheat is unusual. Farmers are not rushing into forward sales and prefer to wait for clearer market signals amid expectations of a sharp decline in global wheat production in the 2026/27 season, as well as heightened market volatility driven by the war in Iran and fluctuations in crude oil prices.

For comparison, a year earlier, the spread between old- and new-crop wheat stood at around 16 USD/MT.
CPT wheat price trends, and correlation vs. Euronext is available for ASAP Agri Premium subscribers.
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🌾 May WASDE sends CBOT wheat to the highest level in nearly two years — ASAP Agri

The May WASDE report delivered a clearly bullish signal for wheat, with the USDA projecting a much tighter global balance for 2026/27. Global production was forecast almost 25 MMT lower y/y, while ending stocks were placed below the average trade expectation. The estimate for 2025/26 global ending stocks also came in below even the lowest market forecast.

Global wheat production in 2026/27 is seen at 819.1 MMT, down 24.8 MMT y/y, with lower crops expected across all major exporters. The sharpest reduction is projected for the U.S. wheat crop, forecast at 42.5 MMT, the lowest in 54 years, down 11.5 MMT y/y, amid lower area and weaker yields as severe drought weighs on winter wheat. The USDA also expects smaller crops in the EU at 136 MMT (-9.1 MMT y/y), Argentina at 21 MMT (-6.9 MMT), Australia at 30 MMT (-6 MMT), Canada at 35 MMT (-5 MMT), russia at 86 MMT (-4.3 MMT), Kazakhstan at 15 MMT (-4.3 MMT), and Ukraine at 23 MMT (-1.1 MMT).

On the trade side, global wheat exports in 2026/27 are forecast at 211.7 MMT, down 12 MMT y/y, reflecting smaller crops in key exporting countries and weaker import demand from the MENA region amid larger domestic harvests in several countries. Lower shipments are expected from Argentina at 14.5 MMT (-4 MMT y/y), the U.S. at 21.1 MMT (-3.7 MMT), Australia at 23 MMT (-3 MMT), Kazakhstan at 9 MMT (-2.5 MMT), and Canada at 28 MMT (-2 MMT). At the same time, larger carry-in stocks are expected to support higher exports from russia at 47 MMT (+1 MMT), Ukraine at 13 MMT (+0.5 MMT), and the EU at 31 MMT (+0.5 MMT).

Global wheat consumption is projected only slightly lower y/y at 823.2 MMT, down just 0.3 MMT. With consumption broadly stable and production falling, global ending stocks are forecast to decline by 4.2 MMT y/y to 275.0 MMT, with the largest reduction expected in the U.S.

Overall, the report confirmed a noticeably tighter wheat balance for the new season and pushed CBOT wheat to its highest level since late May 2024. Geopolitical risks and ongoing concerns over U.S. crop conditions added further support to the rally.

📍Detailed outlooks for all crops available to ASAP Agri Premium subscribers.

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Romanian new-crop barley prices look more attractive vs. Ukrainian — ASAP Agri

Romanian new-crop barley is currently offered at around 191 EUR/MT FOB Constanta, equivalent to roughly 225 USD/MT, for July shipment, said Daria Marchenko, trade advisor at ASAP Agri and broker at Atria Brokers, reporting from the GrainCom 2026 conference in Geneva.

“Romanian new-crop barley looks more attractive compared with Ukrainian origin, which is now offered at about 230 USD/MT FOB POC for July shipment,” she noted.

As a reminder, Romania may harvest around 3 MMT of barley in 2026, according to the European Commission. While this would be lower y/y, the crop is still expected to stay well above the country’s average production level, supporting Romania’s strong presence in export markets.

ASAP Agri already prepared for its premium subscribers main destinations, which they can knock in order to sell Romanian origin barley. To get your private export pie 📲 message Olga Ramazanova 👉 https://t.co/akjiX3jA0Z

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