Andreas Schulz

Curious about everything, and markets in particular. No financial advice here - please do your own due diligence. May trade securities mentioned any time.

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

Well said. I also think people taking the long view on $LMND will be richly rewarded.

Geico is sometimes called Warren Buffett's greatest investment. Berkshire bought 33.3% of Geico between 1976 and 1980 for $45.7 million. The stake grew to 50% over the following 15 years from share repurchases, so effectively Buffet got his initial stake at a sub $100 million valuation. We can only guess what standalone Geico would be worth today (as it is part of Berkshire), but $PGR has a market cap of $113 billion, so Geico was likely something of a 1000 bagger for Buffett (not counting the additional benefits he derived from Berkshire's float).

Geico at the time had a structural cost advantage from selling direct to customers, which allowed the company to take significant market share. And the insurance TAM grew as US GDP and asset values grew. That combination led to the eventual 1000 bagger.

Today $LMND is already demonstrating their structural cost advantage in LAE. But as the business scales their AI driven cost advantage will show up in other places. And I think the overall insurance TAM will continue to grow (never mind the fact that $LMND is not restricted only to the US...).

And one final point - Buffett bought Geico after a spike in loss ratios during the inflationary spike in the 1970's. Many of us bought our $LMND in the aftermath of the spike in loss ratios during the inflationary post-Covid era. Just saying...

I am not predicting any specific outcome for $LMND, but there are some real structural reasons for optimism long-term here...

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

I was already excited a couple of days ago when Shai promised an update on $LMND car. But this exchange makes me extra curious...
https://t.co/xFW2sa7a4Q

[equityXplorer @_equityXplorer]

For anyone thinking the Indiana announcement was the update @shai_wininger said would be coming soon, think again! Still so early $LMND

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

@SemiAnalysis_ When did this first cross over? Do we know how much of this is AI agents vs. old fashioned bots and web crawlers?

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

Thank you for this great video. I like the ballet analogy - $LMND makes the difficult look effortless.

I have been writing that I think $LMND could have produced much bigger earnings surprises this year if they wanted to, but that they chose to reinvest the "excess" into high ROI initiatives that accelerate long-term growth.

As you point out, it shows in the results. Growth continues to accelerate (for the 10th straight Q), while LTV / CAC actually appears to be rising (which is amazing, considering you would expect decreasing marginal returns as you increase spend).

Do you agree with that read, based on your work and your conversations with management? Is this a purposeful strategy of maximizing long-term value subject to a positive 4Q26 EBITDA constraint?

Even though shareholders should celebrate this high ROI investment, I think this "pushing on the accelerator" may have been indirectly been responsible for the current drawdown.

Without evidence of high ROIC, higher expenses are problematic. Ironically, there was lots of compelling evidence of high ROI in 1Q26 (the simplest one being rising LTV / CAC), but it takes a little work to calculate them. And we know that many bears in $LMND dismiss the company based only on top line combined ratio without actually modeling the business. So we got an unusually high number of misguided bear takes after 1Q26, even by $LMND standards.

The current drawdown is painful, but if this is the full story all we have to do is wait. The beauty here is that the returns will keep coming, until some day the financials look so compelling that the stock will violently re-rate higher.

And I guess that is the point of your video - just wait and let consistency play out.

Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

@SamvegPatel @shai_wininger $LMND at scale will the the low cost producer or consumer insurance (they already have industry leading LAE, despite their small scale) with the most loyal customers.

With that advantage they will keep taking share from legacy carriers and earn attractive margins.

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

This is why $LMND wins. They strive for a level of perfection in their customer interactions that no legacy carrier will ever achieve. And @shai_wininger leads by example, tracking down a customer's issue with the new FSD insurance product.

Awesome.

https://t.co/x4TY5yG1K2

[Shai Wininger @shai_wininger]

@StellarNimbus @ASchulz888 @Tesla @Lemonade_Inc DM me please. This should be the case. Maybe a local issue.

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

@CloisterRes Sounds very plausible. I also think it creates a screaming opportunity in $NKTR. The stock looks super cheap here, even compared to $ABVX ...

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

@jayabacus Absolutely. The last six weeks since the AA data have been a slow motion train wreck... But honestly (and I know I will get some flak for this), I think $NKTR at 60 is a fair bit cheaper than $ABVX at 97...

And the pretrial meeting with LLY is an underappreciated catalyst.

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

@Idomeneus_OG 💯

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

For a long time, the consensus was that oral peptides were doomed, and that small molecules would own the oral obesity market.

But peptides are better - more weight loss, fewer AE's, and patients are noticing.

Just wait until $VKTX's oral VK2735 hits...

https://t.co/SKDsFN5mvN

[Investseekers @investseekers]

Fierce Pharma has finally updated its oral GLP-1 prescription tracker for $NVO and $LLY

The latest data show:

• Oral Wegovy: 146,000 prescriptions in week 20, up from 142,000 in week 19.

• Foundayo: 16,011 prescriptions in week 7, down from 16,698 in week 6.

For context, oral Wegovy recorded 66,748 prescriptions in its own week 7.

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

Hey @netflix - how about you start using AI by giving us AI dubbing and subtitles in every language, so that everyone can enjoy all the content on your platform?
https://t.co/g5azOZsPM0

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

@acidicsweetie I hear you, but the evidence shows that many people love orals.

But if you prefer an injectable, VK2735 is also the most potent subq GLP-1 / GIP dual agonist. We'll see how it holds up against retatrutide, but at a minimum it will be competitive with tirzepatide.

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

@morrismok5 @Neil_X10 Recently there have indeed been. My current $LMND position is my largest ever.

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

Seems like a good day to add more $LMND (I just did).

Somehow the stock did not squeeze higher when all of SaaS did, but it did go down with the group after the squeeze ended. YTD $LMND is now again down a similar amount as many large SaaS companies. But unlike SaaS companies who are decelerating, $LMND's business continues to accelerate.

And I will reiterate a point that is perhaps less understood (and may be related to the current sell-off). $LMND management has delivered on every target they have publicly set since their 2022 investor day. But unlike some other companies, when $LMND significantly outperforms their targets, their objective is not to maximize short-term earnings beats, but to maximize the long-term value of the business.

This means they are reinvesting some of the outperformance back into their business. Investors should applaud this. If the returns on investment are attractive, the investments will deliver many times the value over time that a slightly bigger earnings beat could have brought today.

This is what is happening this year. $LMND is making targeted, high ROI investments that are improving their IFP growth and marketing efficiency. As a result LTV / CAC is improving even as IFP growth is accelerating, which is a rather magical combination. Even as they are adding more customers, their growth machine is becoming more efficient.

I believe we are seeing the tip of the iceberg of these investments whenever $LMND announces a new state launch for one of their products (there have been many such announcements lately).

It is clear to anyone who takes the time to model the business in detail that things have been improving. I don't know what 2Q26 will bring, but my bet is more of the same - accelerating growth and improving underlying business economics.

Some bears were questioning why $LMND was not raising full year guidance more after their 1Q26 results. As I have just explained, I think that is the result of a rational, purposeful business strategy - maximizing long-term business value subject to the constraint of delivering their guidance of turning Adjusted EBITDA positive in 4Q26.

No one can precisely predict when this current drawdown will end, but at this price I am willing to wait for it.

Good luck to $LMND and fellow shareholders.

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

Jake van Naarden was promoted to head of Corporate Business Development at $LLY late last year. Since then $LLY has been on a record pace of M&A.

Crystal clear from this interview that the deals will keep coming...

https://t.co/SBngngTImb

[S A I ™️ @WallStSai]

$LLY Eli Lilly's top dealmaker says don't be surprised to see more M&A deals that pushes Lilly into new areas

Van Naarden doesn’t want to set arbitrary size spending limits. He says it’s about how compelling the science is and how big the opportunity is for patients and for Lilly

$XBI $MDGL $ABVX $NVO #MASH

https://t.co/EZ08M7ZsHo

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

So @shai_wininger - given that you are not allowed to show FSD quotes to them - what is your recommendation for $LMND customers in this exact situation (existing auto customers who want to check FSD pricing)?

And is there anyone on the regulatory side we as a $LMND community can raise this to to help get it fixed?

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

@shai_wininger @StellarNimbus @Tesla @Lemonade_Inc That sucks. One would have thought that you would at least be allowed to show customers a quote for FSD insurance, so they know their options before having to cancel their car policy. This sounds like a pretty big problem.

I hope insurance regulators read this...

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

@Idomeneus_OG I probably should be bigger too... Good luck to us both.

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

“What important truth do very few people agree with you on?” (Peter Thiel)
$VKTX
https://t.co/vBVIut8Z42

[Bioinvestor24 @bioinvestor24]

$VKTX longs. Vk2735 is going to generate revenues in 2030 as much as $ABVX and $RVMD drugs combined. Without going into details re competitive positioning of each one and TAM. ..

and I will share this with you then if I am still around.

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

@jayabacus @vladtenev Thanks. Great idea for $HOOD, and there is definitely a big marketing synergy. But honestly, I don't want anyone to buy $LMND anywhere near this price. Too much opportunity to sell it away for a small premium.

Of course, there is a price for everything in the stock market...

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

@takshed Good luck to us both...

[Andreas Schulz @ASchulz888]

@Golden_Labs_cap It is head scratching all right... Thanks for sharing that fun fact, by the way.