Aaron Ang

Truth is singular. Its versions are mistruths.

[Amir @AmirAminiMD]

This is the third time the US has attacked Iran during negotiations within a year.

There is absolutely no way for the US to get out of this mess militarily.

But there will also never be a deal between Iran and this administration. This much is clear.

What is also clear now, is that Iran will become a nuclear power within months - not because it wants to

-because the US forces it to.

[Aaron Ang @AYXAaron]

@JaxTheRiverDog @SirAlexTheFifth @Osint613 Unfortunately, the blockade hurts the US and the rest of the world than it hurts Iran.

[Aaron Ang @AYXAaron]

I think Iran and the US want lower oil prices for different reasons. Trump sees cheaper oil as a sign that peace is possible and wants to limit the economic fallout. Iran may believe peace is unlikely, with the US depleting its SPR now and facing much higher oil prices later.

[Stew Peters @realstewpeters]

LINDSEY GRAHAM: “I go back to S.C. and I’m asking them to send their sons and daughters over to the Middle East. To all the isolationists: I’m not with you, I’m with Israel. God bless Israel. We should move all of our stuff to Israel.”

He actually said this on live television.

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Top secret

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

Iran just called Trump’s bluff.

Its supreme leader was assassinated. Its nuclear sites were bombed. And it is winning the war that is left.

Washington walked into a trap with three locked doors. Trump cannot settle: a tentative 60-day ceasefire has stalled for a week while he demands changes Iran rejects. He cannot walk away: the strait stays shut and the bill keeps running. And the House just voted 215 to 208 to rein him in, with the Senate one vote behind.

But the door he can least afford to open is escalation, and this is the part no one is pricing. America is draining two reserves at once. It has pulled its Strategic Petroleum Reserve down 12% to 365 million barrels to hold the oil price down, and it has fired roughly 1,100 Tomahawks and 1,200 Patriots, weapons it needs years to rebuild. Both gauges fall on the same clock. Neither refills fast: the oil reserve is not projected back to pre-war levels until 2028. And Iran can see all of it.

That is why Iran will not move. A country this battered is winning the only contest left, the contest of who can afford to wait.

The screen still looks calm. Brent is back above $100. US stocks sat at record highs days ago. But that calm is bought with a draining reserve and a spent arsenal, and neither comes back for years.

Trump called the vote meaningless. The market shrugged. Iran read it as a green light.

This war is not being won on the battlefield. It is being won by whoever outlasts the other’s reserves. For the first time, that is not Washington.

[Aaron Ang @AYXAaron]

@ShainHauk @Nostre_damus The whole point this war is continuing…is because Strait of Hormuz is closed and Iran doesn’t want to give up nuclear enrichment. Both are fatal for the US’s standing and dominance in the world. A loss here will be worse than losing Vietnam War.

[Aaron Ang @AYXAaron]

@ShainHauk @Nostre_damus He can stop the war anytime…but does it mean the blockade is going to be lifted? And if so, is Hormuz guaranteed going to open? Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a ‘flip table and get out’ option for him

[Aaron Ang @AYXAaron]

@mokhanhim I believe in the two-state solution because who are we kidding? Israel has conquered the land and is now a nuclear-armed dissident nation.

[InfoGram @_InfoGram_]

76 days ago: 🇺🇸Trump said Iranian leaders are mentally ill or sick people

36 days ago: 🇺🇸Trump said Iranian leaders are crazy bastards

16 minutes ago: 🇺🇸Trump said that he will meet with Iran's Leader. They are very respectful people🤣

This man have completely lost his mental balance.

[BRICS News @BRICSinfo]

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi says there has been "no tangible progress" in peace talks with US.

[WF @WhaleFUD]

This war in Iran is about to escalate

[Aaron Ang @AYXAaron]

@SheDrills @calvinfroedge Smarter, tougher and crazier.

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

Donald Trump has probably never been in a fist fight in his life, but right now he's learning why it's not smart to fight someone crazier than you

[Neil Stone @DrNeilStone]

The regime is currently attacking Kuwait and Bahrain safe in the knowledge that the US won't do anything about it

What

A

Mess

[Max Abrahms @MaxAbrahms]

The Iran war has become a shit-show. Basically, we’ve seen Trump threaten the Iranian leadership for months and IRGC saying it does not care. This is the product of a botched, half-assed regime change attempt going back to Day One.

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Every step of the way, Iran has played their hand to perfection. Strategic. Methodical. Calculated.

The United States, in contrast, has been ill-prepared, scrambling, and behind the curve.

Nowhere is this more clear than the recent US strikes and hour ago on an Iranian vessel near Kharg Island with a Hellfire missile, followed subsequently by immediate retaliation from Iran on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

What we see taking place here is a United States that knows they are boxed in. They have no military options that would have even a moderate likelihood of success, so now they are hoping... praying, that Iran does not have the capabilities or willingness to resume to war. This is the window the United States hopes to take advantage of.

If Iran, a country that is battered and bruised, yet still standing, is unwilling or incapable of returning to war, the United States gains immediate leverage at the negotiating table. This means that the US can continuously make probing and strategic strikes at Iran without a fear of retaliation.

Iran knows this, and they are responding the same way they have done throughout the entire war. Strategic. Methodical. Calculated.

Throughout this "hot ceasefire", we have seen the United States continually throw jabs at Iran. No haymakers, nothing overly significant, but enough that Iran has to either respond, or allow for them to continue.

And this is exactly what they did when they struck targets in Kuwait and Bahrain.

In response to the early probing strikes from the United States, Iran has responded in a very much "tit for tat" manner. You strike me, I strike you only to the level in which the pain is equated. But here's the problem... the United States can play that game. All day long baby.

So now, we see Iran turning to a slightly different tactic.

150%.

Under this strategy, Iran seeks to respond in a manner that is meant to deter future probing strikes, jabs, from the United States. But this is a tricky line to walk...

Under-escalate, and you guarantee future strikes. Over-escalate, and you could see a full resumption of the war.

But Iran, as they have throughout the war, continues to play as if they have been preparing for this exact scenario for 47 years... because they have.

Instead of over-escalating by closing down the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, or targeting Gulf energy infrastructure, or lashing out at civilian vessels in the Strait, they take the perfectly proportionate step.

The problem now for the United States, is that their probing strategy has now backfired. Iran has shown, by striking these targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, that they are not only WILLING to go back to a hot war... they are capable of doing so EFFECTIVELY.

A move from Washington meant to increase US leverage at the negotiating table by seeing Iran back down, and has produced the exact opposite effects.

Iran is emboldened. They're willing. And most damning of all... they're capable.

[Aaron Ang @AYXAaron]

@DeItaone I bet they were spamming messaging everybody..z

[Hemad Nazari @Hemadnazari]

I HAD A VERY GOOD CALL WITH HEZBOLLAH"

President of United States of America.

[Neil Stone @DrNeilStone]

It's now day 55 of the two week ceasefire during which time we have had 16 deadlines, 3 threats of oblivion, 4 requests from Pakistan, 9 social media memes, 5 absolute last final warnings and a "very good call with Hezbollah"

And the regime in Iran have conceded...nothing