Ahmed Aboudouh

AF @ChathamHouse. Director, East Asia @EmiratesPolicy. Co-author "A Dragon's Odyssey". PhDing @DSD_Kings. Teaching IR @warstudies.

[Ahmed Aboudouh @AAboudouh]

If this isn’t rhetoric only, it’d amount to a shift, if only temporary and contingent, in Egypt’s ‘strategic balance’ doctrine and taking no sides foreign policy under Sisi.

[Bloomberg @business]

Egypt says it’s ready to offer any kind of support to Saudi Arabia in its fight with Houthi militants in Yemen https://t.co/jJNCGGxlej

[Bloomberg @business]

Egypt says it’s ready to offer any kind of support to Saudi Arabia in its fight with Houthi militants in Yemen https://t.co/jJNCGGxlej

[Patrick Heinisch @PatrickHeinisc1]

Washington is attempting to break a multi-year deadlock by proposing specific operational rules for the Nile waters. The #US framework suggests that #Ethiopia should primarily use the GERD for electricity generation and... https://t.co/E6MtePx8PM

[Giorgio Cafiero @GiorgioCafiero]

“He reportedly beat rival candidate Lenin Vladimir Rodríguez Valverde after campaigning on the slogan ‘I'm the good Hitler’”.

[Ahram Online @ahramonline]

Egypt, South Korea sign 12 MoUs and agreements during El-Sisi’s Seoul visit https://t.co/aPdxGfxgTR

[Ahmed Aboudouh @AAboudouh]

@_hudsonc is right to argue China may hesitate to interfere. With the exception of Somalia, China avoided being seen as taking sides, even during Xi’s recent visit to Cairo. This is likely to continue if escalation broadens to include a level of Egyptian intervention.

[Cameron Hudson @_hudsonc]

Some thoughts from me on how China may react to the growing Egypt-Ethiopia tensions: “China might hit the pause button for the moment and re-engage when things have settled down. They typically let Washington do the heavy diplomatic lifting.” https://t.co/6PI5tLfXW5

[Kholood Khair @KholoodKhair]

Reminder that in #Sudan's history there's never been an ARMED group that has brought down the (military) regime.

Only non-violent CIVIC protests do.

Hence RSF doesn't want to CHANGE the military system, they want to CONTROL it. History says they too will fail
#KeepEyesOnSudan
+

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Egypt marked the 53rd anniversary of the 1973 Suez Canal crossing with a spectacular Nile boat display in Cairo.

Dozens of lit boats arranged as the Egyptian flag with "73" in gold lights, visible from the air alongside Cairo Tower.

The date commemorates Operation Badr, when Egyptian forces crossed the canal and breached Israel's Bar Lev Line, ultimately leading to the return of Sinai under the 1979 peace treaty.

[عمار علي حسن Ammar Ali Hassan @ammaralihassan]

كان لا يجب الاكتفاء بخروج "مصدر مطلع" أو "إعلاميى السلطة" على وزير المالية الإس .. رائيلي المتطرف سيموترتش (وهو من أصول أوكرانية) حين قال "مصر إذا هاجمت إسرائيل فلن تكون هناك سيناء".
المصدر المطلع وصف تهديدات سيموترتش، المتزامنة مع احتفالات مصر بنصر أكتوبر 1973، بأنها "جوفاء"، وقال، في تصريحات لوكالة أنباء الشرق الأوسط الرسمية، لسنا في حاجة إلى أية تأكيدات بشأن قدرة مصر على حماية أراضيها.
في مثل هذه المواقف، يجب أن يأتي الرد واضحا، وعلى أعلى مستوى، فالمواربات في هكذا قضايا لم تكن مصر تعرفه من قبل، لكنها زادت كثيرا في السنوات الأخيرة، حتى أصبحت نمطا في سياستنا الخارجية، ولهذا عيوبه، إذ من شأنه أن يؤدي إلى طمع فينا، وتطاول علينا.
نصف السياسة في الخطاب ...

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷U.S. Military ordered to be ready for possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran as Trump weighs timing. My story on @axios
https://t.co/J4ZDjrPlJ6

[Simon Marks @MarksSimon]

🚨Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of sending troops into its territory and demanded their immediate withdrawal as tensions escalate between the two countries amid renewed conflict in the Horn of Africa nation.
https://t.co/eegjCzbAPX

[ابتسام الكتبي @ekitbi]

رويترز: بيانات Kpler تظهر أن واردات الصين من النفط الإيراني هبطت في سبتمبر إلى نحو 590 ألف برميل يومياً، وهو أدنى مستوى منذ يناير 2023، فيما انخفض النفط الإيراني المخزن على ناقلات خارج منطقة الحصار من نحو 100 مليون برميل في أواخر يوليو إلى 45 مليون برميل فقط. وتقول Kpler إن إيران لم تصدّر أي شحنة خام في سبتمبر للمرة الأولى منذ بدء تتبعها للتدفقات عام 2013.

📌 هذه من أوضح الإشارات حتى الآن إلى أن الحصار الأمريكي لا يضغط على صادرات إيران فقط، بل يعيد توزيع السوق الآسيوية فعلياً لصالح منتجي الخليج الآخرين. العراق وقطر يتحولان إلى بديل مباشر للخام الإيراني لدى المصافي الصينية الخاصة، بينما تتآكل في الوقت نفسه ورقة إيران الاحتياطية المتمثلة في النفط المخزن عائماً.

كما أن الصين لا تبدو مستعدة لانتظار عودة الإمدادات الإيرانية بأي ثمن، السوق بدأت تتكيف من دونها. وإذا استمر استنزاف المخزون العائم بهذا المعدل، فإن قدرة طهران على الصمود أمام الحصار من دون استئناف التصدير ستتراجع تدريجياً، بما يزيد قيمة أي تفاوض حول رفع الحصار وهرمز.

[ᴅʀ. ʜ.ᴀ. ʜᴇʟʟʏᴇʀ 🖖🏾 ⚜️ @hahellyer]

Note: if the UK does this, it is completely entitled. These Israeli diplomats are on UK soil. Whereas the British Consultate is definitively *not* in Israeli territory (and its establishment predates the establishment of Israel).

[Ahmed Aboudouh @AAboudouh]

This challenges the assumption that Iran’s Hormuz card has run its course. Iran is benefiting from the US safe maritime corridor, and the more oil transits through it, the more money the regime makes. Ironic.

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Hidden in a Treasury press release of sanctions designations is a clear admission that Iran IS getting PAID by some countries and companies for transit:

“Since June of this year, OFAC-designated Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority has used BitBank to transfer payments it received to the Iranian regime.”

[Ahmed Aboudouh @AAboudouh]

For colleagues and journalists asking me about Egypt’s priorities in the Red Sea/Horn of Africa, language here is the best representation of these priorities published in a single statement in a long time.

[Cameron Hudson @_hudsonc]

The joint statement of the summit between Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia mentions international law 2 times, territorial integrity 4 times, sovereignty 5 times and Ethiopia 0 times. And yet its clear what it's all about.

Its a list of shared grievances and priorities that ignores the conflict at the center of the region that brought them all together. And yet, it takes aim at Ethiopia in ways both passive and aggressive: supporting Sudan's territorial integrity; rejecting Somaliland recognition; reinforcing the exclusive role of Red Sea littoral states to security and freedom of navigation; rejecting unilateral moves on use of Nile waters. Message received. https://t.co/Q3HsPItbTh

[Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham]

💥Boom - it's ready, the joint Franco-German paper / letter to VDL on China.

Berlin & Paris - previously at polar opposite ends of the scale on China policy - now want a kill switch to cut China out of the EU market. This would have been unfathomable a few short months ago 🤯

[Cameron Hudson @_hudsonc]

A lot of analysis seems to conflate Abiy's Red Sea port ambitions and doesnt distinguish between commercial and military access. Many officials in the region I speak with understand and even agree with the need for Ethiopia to have dedicated and diversified commercial port access to feed its fast growing economy. What people seem to take issue with is his ambition to establish a Red Sea naval presence. Regional leaders argue that his aggressive, expansionist rhetoric creates the impression that he would not be a team player in the Red Sea and would use a military to further destabilize the region and possibly allow proxy access to UAE, Israel and others to increase... https://t.co/2xsvkpq5zg

[Dr Andreas Krieg @andreas_krieg]

Saudi and UAE plan an offensive against the Houthis in Taiz to dislodge them from the Bab El Mandab

This is highly ambitious to say the least and Tariq Saleh's forces will likely be relieved of their area of responsibility there with Giant Brigades and other more UAE aligned forces taking the lead
https://t.co/bKHlal3mBv

[Mada Masr مدى مصر @MadaMasr]

On Thursday, the quiet posturing that’s been going on for months burst into the opening. Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrea diplomats persona non grata for “involvement in activities that pose a direct threat to Ethiopia.” Hours later, Addis informed the Egyptian embassy that one of its diplomats would have to leave the country in 48 hours. Egypt and Eritrea reciprocated. Asmara cut diplomatic ties. Cairo expelled an Ethiopian diplomat.

What’s behind this diplomatic scuffle? Over the past six months, Mada Masr has spoken to sources across East Africa about how once-separate theaters are increasingly converging. Facing Ethiopia’s expansionist ambitions is a group of actors brought together as a counterbalance. Read how Eritrea, Egypt and Somalia have found themselves part of the anti-Ethiopia bloc.
https://t.co/3RisBzr2vo

[ᴅʀ. ʜ.ᴀ. ʜᴇʟʟʏᴇʀ 🖖🏾 ⚜️ @hahellyer]

This is a really big claim about Iranian responsibility for the flyDubai incident, and thus far, the UAE has not remotely indicated this in the slightest