Aaron Burnett

Founder, CEO @ Mach33 | Research and Investment in Expansion Technologies

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

There has been a lot of hand wringing on the appropriate valuation of SpaceX. Some large institutions believe SpaceX can only be valued at half what the market seems to be willing to pay for it. Others are claiming it has 15X appreciation ahead of it.

Almost all of this difference of opinion comes down to how comfortable you are modeling beyond 2030 and what valuation method you use.

2030 valuation using a traditional Gordan DCF produces a very different result than a 2040 EV/EBITDA Multiple. Both have pros and cons. Most analysts don’t really discuss this and lead with a headline number.

We are very comfortable modeling out to 2040, as large portions of what SpaceX is proposing is real world infrastructure, which provides modelable physics constraints to anchor against.

The analysis we released today explores this in-depth, its open to the public all the way through IPO. I highly encourage you check it out prior to then.
https://t.co/McShCl78uo

We’ve run 5,000 monte carlo runs across 500 variables (real number, even though it sounds fake) and three valuation methods.

This video is of a 3D cloud chart showing every simulation outcome expected in valuation output across two of the most impactful variables to the model when using an EV/EBITDA multiple from 2026 to 2040.

The horizontal axis is the steepness of the orbital data center demand S-curve.

The vertical axis is the rate at which chip compute efficiency becomes cheaper.

Each of the 5,000 dots is one simulated future; green dots are the ones where SpaceX's 2040 value clears the $1.77T IPO line, over time.

Under EV/EBITDA valuation through 2040, 96% of our simulated futures clear the expected IPO price once the bell rings Friday.

We aren’t publishing this publicly to tell investors what the stock is worth, we’re publishing this to help investors understand the world of outcomes, what the fundamentals suggest through 2040, and what frankly most analysis simply won’t share.

SpaceX is a generational company working on long term infrastructure harnessing a domain no one has been able to tap in so far: space.

It deserves doing the work as an investor. because this in not financial advice.

The cleanest way to hold SpaceX is a bond stapled to a call option (AI-Compute); Starlink is the bond, the near term SatCom annuity that funds the next flywheel.

Understand the world of outcomes and take your position accordingly.

Comparables and P/E won't take you far enough.

[Matthew McConaughey @McConaughey]

bets still on the table America, yet.

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

Cool project but good reminder that there is not a vibrant menagerie of open source reusable rocket companies while there are many open source LLMs and their lag is normally measured in months behind other leading models. Rockets are harder than most things.

[Mario Hernandez @AStarryDawn]

World's first open-source turbopump successfully tested.

Developing 35 kW of shaft power spinning at 26000 rpm, it delivered 1.8 l/s at 90 bar, with the gas generator and turbine running at up to 1300°C for 15 s. No significant damage recorded.

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

@bradsferguson It’s an arbitrary line. Particular for late stage privates. I expect much less selling than skeptics expect. But these sellers exist.

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

If you’re an LP you legitimately have to ask yourself what else would I rather own. Outside simple concentration risk, it’s a hard answer despite what traders pushing their stock flavor of the week tell you. The only people I’ve talked to in favor of selling and distributing cash are professional managers strictly incentivized by IRR with a tight mandate in privates, or certain growth envelopes. Any end owner who is actually trying to make a real allocation decision isn’t thinking that way.

[Natasha Mascarenhas @nmasc_]

Scoop via @arroyanieto: Antonio Gracias is so bullish on SpaceX and its future that he told his LPs that he'd rather not sell SpaceX shares to pay them out, according to a recent investor call.

Gracias instead plans to distribute the firm’s SpaceX investment “in kind,” meaning he would dole out shares in the rocket company in lieu of cash.

https://t.co/i64xBGK3OY

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

@StevenZWang Probably just a feature of the vehicle active management or none prior to a certain age. Also restricted stock can be used.

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

@jade__42 @tottaway22 It’s also an example of why some ODC cost crossovers using existing supply chain networking and IT costs is just wrong. They’re building their own purpose built rack they don’t bend to the supply chain outside the chip/memory makers for now.

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

Looking deeper into inference networking coherence, and it almost seems like SpaceX knows exactly what they’re doing with AI1 satellites. Also recent rumored acquisition makes more sense.

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

@BassonBrain We’ll have to make sure the deep Starlink questions get at least a couple of up votes 😅

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

Can’t wait for starship updates on quarterly earnings calls.

[SpaceX @SpaceX]

Starship 60-second static fire ahead of the thirteenth flight test

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

Ones who’s incentives are ever so slightly different than the LPs. Stricter DPI on an investment they manage could be optimized for that. The others I’ve heard are just professional money managers whose mandate is narrowly defined so owning the best risk adjusted return to them doesn’t matter if it’s a public company, they want to recycle the cash as soon as possible back into their mandated strategy. Tbf, thats their job.

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

@Patryn23 Their iteration on raptor is nuts

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

What most people know about space tech is that reusability and scalability matter for cost reduction. SpaceX made this obvious. A vibrant space economy needs dramatic cost reduction across many areas.

What may be less obvious is that technology built for massive scalability and reusability aren't always maxing out capability or metrics. SpaceX's Raptor is a good example. It's an engine designed for maximum reusability, even though some other designs get better ISP, thrust, or whatever. In some ways, scalability and reusability are the only capabilities that matter, at least for this stage of the space economy.

Portal's builds space platforms targeted on this ethos. propulsion systems that can be relight by default thousands of times and can be optimized to tens of thousands. And with so few moving pieces they can be reliably and predictably scaled to thousands of systems.

Exceptional execution along this path unlocks net new capabilities and markets, similar to the way Falcon 9 unlocked global connecticity via Starlink and Starship is unlocking global intelligence via StarMind.

SpaceX has solved access to space with massive reusability and scalability. Portal will solve movement in space (and the markets that come with it) with the same playbook.

@DMaguireARK had a great write up on their Portal thesis here.

https://t.co/r2HwKYwrey

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

@tottaway22 Tbf, SpaceX moves to fast to keep it all straight 😂

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

@tottaway22 Mesh optical is the one I’m thinking of

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

@RKLBMan Very small errors (totally reasonable) can cascade into year long shift backs in revenue. Happens all the time.

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

Execution risk is generally under appreciated among public space investors imo

[RocketMan @RKLBMan]

I'm with you mostly. But $RKLB at $60B is small compared to $SPCX at $2T. Long way to go, especially as SpaceX continues to appreciate in the next 5-10 years.

Space is a meritocracy. Be careful buying companies with execution risk, or you'll see your gains evaporate with a failure.

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

@danheld I also like memes

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

If true I wonder how lock up works if there is one.

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 WOW! President Trump reveals Elon Musk might donate SpaceX stock to TRUMP ACCOUNTS, which are held by America's children

That would be INCREDIBLE, @ElonMusk! 🇺🇸

Q: Do you think he would donate SpaceX stock to Trump Accounts?

TRUMP: "I think he WILL do that!" 👏🏻

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

it's a little eerie that in my experience consistently the best analogies to explain some nuance about LLMs is directl correlation to human thinking/working. may be a self fulfilling prophecy at this point

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

@TenaciousBit Aug I think

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

@jbrooksokc I’ve talked to some managers (minority) who are looking to lock in a DPI or just have no mandate for public. But the end LPs consistently have little to no interest in selling.