Steve

Optimism. Humility. Paranoia. Frugality.

[Steve @StevenZWang]

The most important skill in life is retardmaxxing.

Many have been practicing it for years and know it to be the way. Thanks to this dude @ElishaDLong, we finally have a catchy name for it.

Retardmaxxing basically means you want to take action to solve your problems without overthinking. That's because ruminating and introspecting lead to negative energy, loss of momentum, overcomplicating tasks and relationships, and, over time, turn you into a whiny little bitch who constantly blames themselves and others.

You are the only person responsible for and capable of solving your own problems, even if you didn't cause them in the first place. Sometimes you are just dealt a shitty hand.

Your emotions don't solve your problems -- they only make them worse. The world is a messy place. Everyone is busy dealing with their own problems and has no time to babysit your emotions. The key point here is that YOU should not waste time babysitting your emotions either -- especially you, the only person who's supposed to use that time and energy to deal with your problems.

Un-bitch yourself and start retardmaxxing today.

#retardmaxxing @pmarca @ElishaDLong

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

We’ve just published the 5 key mechanics learnings (with charts) from our 400+ variable SpaceX ‘Gigamodel’. The learnings are open to the public here...
https://t.co/bgn2UyXrrS

IMO the IRR cash allocation engine is the most insightful. It visually represents the return on investment decisions SpaceX could be making over the next 15 years.

while most focus on a ~5 year investment horizon. We forecast through 2040 because the buildout is physics-bound and predictable enough over a 10-15 year horizon.

Though imperfect, I think its helpful for investors trying to understand SpaceX as a business, which is incredibly difficult for anyone outside the company.

Once SpaceX acquired xAI, AI compute became a core business line, and the misunderstanding and confusion increased.

In our capital-allocation engine, the shaded bands show the cash percentage each business line ends up with, after we rank it by return and cap it by the demand it can absorb.

Starship customer launches show the highest returns in the 2030s, yet third-party demand is a rounding error next to compute and Starlink. So the cash flows to them instead.

As you might expect Starlink (green) shows the highest IRR and capital allocation early on, as the dual impact from Starship and Starlink V3 dramatically ramping up capital efficiency.

Once the model hits Starlink demand curve saturation in the early 2030s, it begins naturally allocating toward AI-Compute (blue) more heavily.

SpaceX business deserves taking a deeper dive into if you're contemplating being a serious long term investor.

Check out the rest of the piece as I think it will uplevel most investors understanding of spacex as a business.

Shout out to @VladSaigau and team who've been spending countless waking hours in the weeds on our gigamodel.

[Steve @StevenZWang]

China speed.

[Starship Gazer @StarshipGazer]

Super heavy booster 20 undergoing full load cryogenic proof testing today at Starbase Massey's test site in preparation for Starship test flight 13.

6/6/26

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

This is the only way to save democracy in America

[Steve @StevenZWang]

That’s my president ❤️

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Oh Wow.

Trump ended an interview with NBC's Kristen Welker mid-conversation in Wisconsin, calling her a liar to her face before walking off.

Trump: "The elections are like a 3rd world country. You're Crooked...let's call it Quits . I've had enough."

Welker asked him to stay, saying she had traveled to Wisconsin for the sit-down.

Trump: "I've sat in the rain with you for an Hour! I've given you enough time. You ought to straighten out your press. You know what? A country can never be great with a dishonest press. Let's GO."

[Steve @StevenZWang]

Suicidal empathy explained.

[Wolfgang Richter @WolfgangRichtEU]

I was in the forest yesterday with my daughter.

"A snake, dad! Run!" she suddenly said.

"Wait.", I replied. "Just because 50% of snakes in this forest are venomous, doesn't mean we can assume that this one is."

"That would be like assuming that because many immigrants are criminals, all of them are. I have taught you that such thinking is deeply racist," I continued.

To set a good example, I leaned down to pet the snake but he bit my hand. A minute later I lost my eyesight, started vomiting blood, and had to be rushed to the hospital.

I don't regret my decision, and would have done the same thing again. I would rather die than teach my daughter to make racist decisions based on statistics.

Have a wonderful European Sunday,

Wolfgang

[Steve @StevenZWang]

@cornfed_88 sure enough. I'm just not speculating about the future IN THIS POST. I have many opinions and predictions, but I like to focus on making one important point per each short tweet

[Steve @StevenZWang]

Just in case you are wondering why the "all-in $TSLA bulls" seem to be doing nothing all day except talking about a Tesla-SpaceX merger. I can totally understand the frustration and the anxiety. I don't want to speculate on a potential merger - that's Elon's decision and his only. No one else should or will have a say in ti. But what is the key lesson here from an investor's perspective, though? Here's my take: Holding great companies does not guarantee great returns (or any return at all) even over a genuinely long-term holding period. Ask yourself: How many five years does an average investor have in their investing career? TIMING is very, very, very important.

[Steve @StevenZWang]

the key is to figure out a way to do this without further expanding and empowering the government

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

I still believe this…

[Steve @StevenZWang]

There will be hundreds of SpaceX billionaires, hundreds of Anthropic billionaires, and hundreds of OpenAI billionaires. Just make sure you are on a ship you really understand and believe in so you don't fall overboard when the sea inevitably gets rough.

[vincent @SPCX100T]

Ron Baron sees SpaceX $SPCX will become $10T , $20T , $30T or more in 10-15 years. I am personally expecting $100T in 30 years.

Investing is inherently a subjective endeavor, involving differing levels of industry insight, an investor's personal discipline, and a profound understanding of corporate culture.

[Steve @StevenZWang]

@EmilianoLausell @SPCX100T there is no such thing.

[Steve @StevenZWang]

@cornfed_88 again, my post is not about speculating on a merger.

[Steve @StevenZWang]

@micmat02 @SPCX100T at 270 it was. went to 500 from there. now at ~400 it's hard to say. my latest post is not about outlook. it's about what lesson we can learn from its underperformance since the peak of last bull market.

[Steve @StevenZWang]

@Singularitybook @SPCX100T Yeah exactly

[Steve @StevenZWang]

The West. We want the West to win!

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

Work some over time for the good of humanity! If Elon walks out of this with a commitment from ASML to double their expected build rate the world wins in a major way.

[vincent @SPCX100T]

For anyone wanting to learn more about SpaceX $SPCX from pro investor @RonBaronAnalyst, I highly recommend listening to the latest @BaronCapital call, now on YouTube.

https://t.co/xcFVTtmHlG

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Time for change in Germany

[Steve @StevenZWang]

sounds about right

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

I may be getting a bit ahead of myself here, and it's important to note that Elon said the Anthropic deal is a short-term one. Still, it's possible that @SpaceX could exit 2026 with an annualized revenue run rate approaching $60B. SpaceX did $18.7B of revenue in 2025.

The rough math:
• Starlink, Starshield, launch services, 𝕏, etc: ~$22 billion. If Starlink continues growing at its current pace, this estimate is likely conservative.

• Compute-capacity leasing agreements: ~$30 billion annual revenue run rate. The announced Anthropic and Google agreements already represent roughly $26 billion in annual recurring revenue. Assuming SpaceX (SpaceXAI) signs at least one smaller additional deal, reaching a $30 billion run rate absolutely seems achievable. The Google agreement is expected to remain in place through at least early Q2 2027, per their agreement, provided SpaceX delivers the contracted GPU capacity by end of October 2026. After December 31, 2026, the agreement may be terminated by either SpaceX or Google upon 90 days' notice.

• Cursor (assuming the acquisition closes): ~$6–7 billion annual run rate. Media reports say Cursor was at a $3 billion annual revenue run rate about a month ago, up from $2 billion earlier this year. Those same reports suggest it could double again by the end of 2026. If true, that's a strong addition under the SpaceX umbrella.

Combined, that would put SpaceX near a $58–59 billion annual revenue run rate by the end of 2026. To be clear, this is all very speculative, but SpaceX has been surprising us a lot lately with its ability to generate additional revenue in ways most didn't expect.

If the Cursor acquisition is completed, SpaceX may eventually want to reclaim some of the compute capacity currently being leased out, which would reduce near term revenue, but could set them up well long term if they create stronger competitive products/services using that capacity.

SpaceX could also build additional data center capacity while continuing to lease out its existing infrastructure. Given how quickly SpaceX has been deploying these data centers - and that its competitors don't appear to have figured out how to do so at the same pace- the latter doesn't seem out of the question.

It's worth pointing out that SpaceX has another 220,000+ Nvidia GB300s coming online soon, as well as many other important milestones ahead. Even if the scenarios above don't play out, this one hell of a roadmap: