🚨 CPI COOLS — FED HOLD STILL FAVORED
July inflation showed little cause for alarm:
🔸 Headline CPI: +0.1% M/M | +3.4% Y/Y
🔸 Core CPI: +0.2% M/M | +2.5% Y/Y
🔸 Energy: -1.5%
Prediction markets still favor the Fed holding rates in September at 68.2%, versus 17% for a 25bp cut and 9.6% for a hike.
For now, hold remains the base case.
https://t.co/3TXWilnZWT
OIL MARKETS BRACE FOR VOLATILITY AFTER KHARG STRIKE
Oil markets are set for a turbulent week after a US strike on Iran’s key export hub, Kharg Island, heightened fears of supply disruption across the Middle East.
President Donald Trump warned attacks could expand to energy infrastructure if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran threatened retaliation against US-linked facilities.
Brent crude surged 11% last week, briefly hitting $119.50 a barrel, and analysts expect further volatility as the fate of Kharg — vital to Iran’s exports — remains unclear.
Shipping through Hormuz is near standstill, pressuring global energy flows and pushing fuel prices higher worldwide.
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