Aaron Kopelson

I help homebuyers and homeowners close with confidence by keeping the process simple, transparent, and fast.

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

Price is not the only thing you can negotiate when buying a home. In some cases, you may also be able to discuss seller help with closing costs or a rate buydown, repairs, and other terms. The right strategy depends on the home, the market, and your financing. If you are preparing to make an offer, send me a message and we can talk through what to prioritize.

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

California is changing how HOA reserves work. Starting in 2032, AB 2050 requires associations to actually fund reserves against 30-year projections, not just study them. For owners in underfunded communities, that could mean higher dues or a special assessment down the road.

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

Fed expectations look contradictory right now. Markets are pricing only a 22% chance of a rate hike in October, but a 69% chance by December, even as Fed officials keep signaling that further tightening may still be necessary.

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

When budgeting for a home, it's important to look beyond your mortgage principal and interest. Property taxes and homeowners insurance may also be included in your monthly payment through escrow, affecting your total monthly cost. Understanding how escrow works can help you create a more accurate homebuying budget and avoid surprises down the road. If you're considering buying, I can help you estimate what your total monthly payment could look like.

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

With the 30-year fixed hovering around 7.33% APR, more buyers are turning to adjustable-rate mortgages to make the monthly payment work. ARMs just claimed their largest share of rate locks in nearly four years at over 11%, according to ICE's October Mortgage Monitor. The old ARM anxiety doesn't quite fit this time: only 1.05 million ARMs are actually adjusting, a 25-year low, because more than 90% of ARMs originated since 2022 are still in their introductory fixed-rate periods. For the right buyer, an ARM can be a smart bridge while rates stay elevated.

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

1/8

Is Too Much Debt the Reason Bond Yields are Heading Higher?
--
My argument for why this case is overstated.
(It's a problem, but a secondary one.)

🧵

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

September's jobs report came in much weaker than expected, with the economy adding just 29,000 jobs versus forecasts of about 90,000. Payroll estimates for July and August were also revised lower by a combined 60,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

A lower mortgage payment doesn't always require waiting for rates to fall. A rate buydown can lower your mortgage rate using funds paid upfront, and in some cases the seller may contribute toward the cost. Potential savings depend on the loan amount, rate, and how long you keep the mortgage. Want to see if a buydown could make sense for you? Send me a message. I'm happy to help you compare the upfront cost with the potential monthly savings.

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

Yields worldwide up and to the right. This is not just a story here in the United States.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

A debt crisis always starts in the most vulnerable places. That's what's happening now. Look at how France's 10-year yield has decoupled above the global rise in yields this year. This is causing contagion to Italy, where yields are also rising sharply...
https://t.co/glpR3SDk82

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

Inflation was below expectations in August. Headline PCE rose 0.3% for the month, bringing the annual rate to 3.4%. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2%, with annual core inflation at 3%.

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

Private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, beating expectations, according to ADP. The gain marks a rebound after three months of slowing job growth. ADP called it a "strong report."

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

U.S. home prices rose 0.1% from June to July, bringing the gain from March through July to nearly 3%. That's a resilient pace of growth, especially as mortgage rates began rising during the period. Overall, home prices are up 1.9% from a year ago.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

The 10y10y forward US Treasury yield is now firmly above anything we've seen in the past two decades. The US looks comparatively good compared to the rest of the world, where the sell-off in global bond markets is even more severe. A global debt shock...
https://t.co/e6quAS1Tzh

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

The "right" home price is one that allows you to enjoy homeownership without stretching your finances too thin. Before you start shopping, take a realistic look at what monthly payment feels comfortable for you. Remember, buying a home is a long-term commitment, so it's important to leave room for the other things that matter to you financially. A little breathing room in your budget can go a long way toward giving you greater financial flexibility as a homeowner.

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

@realEstateTrent You can upload image to Claude and ask it to make a quick daily study (quiz or flashcards).

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

Life doesn't always wait for the mortgage process to be finished. But if something changes financially while you're buying a home, it's important to address it early. Changes in employment, income, credit, or debt can affect your loan qualification even if you've already been approved. When in doubt, ask before making a move. If you have questions about your personal situation or how a change could impact your loan, feel free to reach out. I'm always happy to help.

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

New home sales rose 6.4% MoM in August to an annualized pace of 684,000 – above expectations and the highest pace of the year. July’s sales were also revised higher.

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

Getting your offer accepted is a big milestone, but there’s still a process to complete before you get the keys. Understanding what happens between an accepted offer and closing can help you know what to expect and stay on top of important deadlines. From inspections and appraisals to final loan approval, each step helps move you closer to homeownership. I’m here to help guide you through the financing side of the process, answer questions along the way, and help keep things moving toward closing. Have questions? Reach out anytime. I’m happy to help.

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

https://t.co/4mKsMt8hJc

[Aaron Kopelson @AaronKopelson]

Housing starts fell 2.6% from July to August, coming in below expectations. Building permits, a key indicator of future homebuilding, also declined by a similar 2.7%.