4/ Intense storm events are not new, but our perception of them has increased because there are more humans, more gauges, and more documentation than ever. That said, there’s strong evidence that rare events are becoming less rare.
Flooding is once again in the news, and this time I’m seeing a great deal of uninformed and dangerous information getting shared. Intense rain events are difficult to comprehend despite clear, science that explains the phenomenon. Check out my lecture 1/ https://t.co/Q5zuTwj17V
3/ scale in meteorology is also difficult for humans to comprehend. The atmosphere is capable of holding a phenomenal amount of water. The only thing humans are doing at a meaningful scale to the atmosphere is continuously releasing carbon for two centuries.
2/ probablistic discussions are difficult for humans. The notion of a 100-year storm does the science no favors, it’s best to think of these events as 1% chance events.
@JennaLaineESPN Glad you spoke up. It’s not clever, it’s not cute, it’s like trying to watch MLB in a sad little bar in a sad little town and this guy IRL is hitting on a girl and blocking your view of the game.
I explained girl dinner to my Gram and she went “wow that’s every dinner I’ve had since your grandfather died, just a plate full of cheese sticks and pickles and fruit and then a Hershey bar after”
The past couple of HRRR model runs depict a concerning flooding setup for our two counties overnight with training storms dropping multi-inch rainfall. Where exactly this sets up is anyone's guess, but this model suggests it sets up over us. So, it has our full attention.