Gold is sitting right at its 200-day moving average.
Yes, the last time we were here turned out to be a great buying opportunity…. but I try not to get too fixated on technical levels alone.
What stands out to me is how dramatically sentiment has shifted.
Just a few months ago, gold was one of the market’s favorite trades.
Today, it feels almost completely forgotten.
Not to steal from Buffett, but I'm starting to get greedy while others are becoming fearful.
https://t.co/P4sfxoqBM9
This distribution phase feels like a massive change of hands.
Bitcoin investors' average cost basis is around $53K.
Historically, bear markets ended only after the price fell below the realized price. I thought that level would be hard to revisit, given institutional inflows and MSTR barely selling any BTC.
But current price action suggests unusually strong sell pressure.
• Since Jan 2023, MSTR bought 711,206 BTC and sold only 32 BTC, removing 711,174 BTC from circulation.
• Since BTC was also $63K in Mar 2024, ETFs absorbed 509,102 BTC and MSTR bought 650,706 BTC. That is 1,240,808 BTC absorbed, yet price is back at the same level.
• For context, exchange reserves are around 2.7M BTC, and Satoshi is estimated to hold around 1M BTC.
More BTC than Satoshi’s stack, nearly half of exchange reserves, has been absorbed, and price is still back at the same level.
$BTC is below $65K due to macro noise: sticky inflation, strong DXY, AI capital rotation, and ETF outflows.
But look under the hood. Price and ownership behavior are pointing in completely opposite directions.
Long-Term Holders (LTH) now control 16.3M BTC—near an ATH. They’ve added 200K $BTC just this month. The people who have held Bitcoin the longest are NOT selling into this weakness. They are buying your panic.
21M hard cap. Less than 1M wholecoiners. Don't get shaken out. Stack the dip.
Bitcoin is a hedge against uncertainty, and the market is very certain about one thing: AI will absorb the next decade of capital, earnings growth, power demand, semiconductor demand, data-center buildout, and productivity upside. BTC crash has nothing to do with Saylor or Iran.
Only absolute retards think they'll perfectly time the bottom.
Wealth is created by buying while we hit peak fear, like now, and even if we go lower, then you buy more or sit on your hands.
It's not hard. But few do it.