Abdullah Haider

Passionate supporter of Pakistan cricket team and Ferrari F1 enthusiast. Alumni @KingsCollegeLon - graduate in Political Economy

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

As for excl. Iran’s role in the region, evidently the US is willing to have both Leb-Syria recognize Israel, their only policy is “to bendover to” Israel, they’ve no real substantive solution to offer Arabs under occupation. Ergo, Hezbollah voters don’t desert on voting days. 2/2

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

Iran’s hawkish Leb policy clearly resonates with a certain bloc of voters (time-tested too), as for Hezbollah’s paramilitary its non-disarmament has forced the Trump admin., to even give Netanyahu a ‘slap on the wrist’ vis-a-vis Leb. Iran’s Leb policy has forced the US’s hand.1/2

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

However sometimes real news is overlooked as no new news, that's simply untrue. A clear signal is given in this article, military needs of Iran (regular Army Artesh under Defense ministry) is prioritized above even reformist econ manifesto. 2/2 https://t.co/fUQgxsrGbp

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

Some (even mainstream) can justify as rhetorical/unchanged policies, Iran's stance vis-a-vis Lebanon-Palestine remains unchanged, if anything the news is the lack of new news, as some wildcard analysts had (wrongly) predicted of Zarif during Rouhani, Aragchi during Pezeshkian.1/2

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

SNSC appt jointly by President & Supreme Leader, Pezeshkian's choice is another indication (after Ali Larijani) of pragmatism amongst reformists, building coalitions with conservatives, and side-stepping Rouhani's 'dovish' cabinet from full restoration. https://t.co/WUNvSTkYpn

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

Strange how journos take this, and spin an interpretation, as implying President's 'dovish', if not anti-war. Clearly prioritizing army leaders, and Supreme Leader means national security over Rouhani-style econ is his own alignment instead of surrender-for-sanction relief.

[Tehran Times @TehranTimes79]

Regarding decision on war and peace, Iranian President Masoud says: “Whether we should fight or not, the military commanders know better than you or me. They know their own capabilities. The Leader will make the decision, and whatever decision he makes, we will stand firm to the end.”
https://t.co/zLeMeXCZKC

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

(Persian) Gulf analysts and journos, would again commit an amateur dismissal as 'rhetoric/motivation'.
It's a strategic signal, Artesh (Iran's Army, not IRGC), are unwilling to back out from the Hormuz closure, and signal they're ready for a land invasion.
https://t.co/7RyFa2lqME

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

Another example of the disconnect in reformist = dove, and conservative = hawk between media of the west, and media of the rest, Pezeshkian's uncompromising reality with protestors, and west's media arguing his reformist-alignment has protest sympathies. https://t.co/9rLnwPKTqR

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

Pres instead stands for Iran's local politics, widely conflated as reformists = doves, and conservatives = hawks. RE: narrative Pres. of Iran isn't seeking conflict, because Pres positions Iran, as a defender (Persian Gulf), rather than aggressor (US). 2/2 https://t.co/PbXqsVWRrQ

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

Illogical yet expected, how media of the west vs the rest fare, the mainstream imply Pezeshkian or others, position themselves to present to Western leaders as a preferred interlocutor. This isn't the neo-imperial age, his pol. base is domestic Iranian 1/2
https://t.co/HawoCxSG1x

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

Analysts would again dismiss it as 'business-as-usual rhetoric', glossing over the fact that a card-carrying Reformist VP isn't emphasizing the 'dovish' peace talks scenario, but is readying Iran for a 'hawkish' scenario of war during remainder of tenure. https://t.co/5WjP6vdBtJ

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

Ex-FM Zarif's analysis of US-Israel dynamics, is a reminder that diplomacy with the US by Iran over the Persian Gulf, hasn't degraded Iran's support of Palestine into a half-baked 2-state solution. Even Iran's JCPOA US 'doves', are still firmly anti-Israel.https://t.co/g6OBfD3DtI

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

I guarantee >90% of analysts will read this article and declare it 'rhetoric'. https://t.co/WeeiC5qgVA

Instead, is a blending of the Sepah (external) and Artesh (internal-interior) doctrines into one where even Artesh is expected to have an overseas milOps capability.

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

Perhaps 'doomed' is not the right word, but relocating bases would not be easy for Trump's supporters to 'spin' as a win, it will look like "a withdrawal". And is unlikely, because the US believes (with rationale) it can overcome Iran's weaker airpower https://t.co/QnSqvqy9lB

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

Double standards on Pers. Gulf, between Leb-Yemen, whereby the media are willing to label Iran's Leb partners as non-regime entities. And Yemen, where the Houthis run the capital city, feign behind a de jure UN certificate, that has no connection to who controls the capital city.

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

Striking how mainstream media news outlets typically those omitting Persian from Gulf, avoid saying the Hormuz is closed, although the overall conflict means it de facto is closed for economic use, regardless of de jure who dominates the war overall. https://t.co/0A5wt9z9bY

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

Footage (can) matter, it is the mainstream media's tendency to peddle the US narrative. How reliable was Bush's media in Iraq's WMDs? How reliable was the media coverage of Afghanistan prior to 2021? And on the flip-side, how reliable was the Syria coverage before 2024...

[Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi]

POTUS is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service.

Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will remain so FOREVER.

20% is of course too much. We will be fair

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

Authoritarian or awaited Ayatollah aside. Iranian people always celebrate the heroism of soldiers attaining martyrdom, in millions whether Bagheri or Soleimaini. Amongst ultra-conservatives clergy, ex-President Raisi’s thin funeral turnout a stark contrast to Khamenei’s numbers.

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

Another tiresome narrative is development economics. The mainstream theory is that Iran's reformists focus on the domestic economy to placate protesters. That's simply untrue, econ itself is about war and he says red lines are non-negotiable (war-ready): https://t.co/dZpJyTxKtM

[Abdullah Haider @AbdullahHaider]

Hassan Rouhani was indeed a peace-seeking President, that's because his JCPOA worked with Obama's dovish stance. Pezeshkian isn't peace-seeking, his realism is in Trump's era, peace is merely rhetoric for two purposes:

1. Make new allies to isolate the US.
2. Delaying tactics.