Abstract.banter

Once more into the fray, into the last good fight I'll ever know, live & die on this day, live & die on this day!

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Four ideologies shape the Bitcoin community. Maximalists bring conviction. Capitalists bring integration. Technologists bring innovation. Fundamentalists bring preservation. Bitcoin reaches its full potential when these four forces work in harmony.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: The full text for Congressman Nick Begich's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill is now published online 🇺🇸

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

JUST IN: U.S. CONGRESSMAN FRENCH HILL JUST TOLD FOX JAMIE DIMON WILL HAVE TO ACCEPT THE #BITCOIN CLARITY

"WE NEED THIS BILL, WE NEED MARKET STRUCTURE"

AMERICA WILL "LEAD THE WORLD" IN CRYPTO

IT'S HAPPENING 🚀

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

BREAKING: U.S. CONGRESS JUST DROPPED 7 #BITCOIN TAX BILLS AHEAD OF A HEARING NEXT WEEK

0% TAX ON EVERYDAY BTC PAYMENTS IS COMING

MASSIVE FOR BTC ADOPTION 🚀

[Bitcoin Archive @BitcoinArchive]

BREAKING: Morgan Stanley and Galaxy Digital launch Bitcoin-to-ETF conversion service for wealthy clients

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

JACK MALLERS JUST SENT A MASSIVE WARNING TO EVERYONE WHO ISN'T BUYING THIS #BITCOIN DIP

WE ARE ABOUT TO SEE THE "GREATEST WEALTH TRANSFER IN HUMAN HISTORY"

BTC IS "GOING TO THE MOON"

SEND IT 🚀

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

BREAKING: IRAN JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THEY NOW ACCEPT #BITCOIN OVER THE LIGHTNING NETWORK AT THE STRAIT OF HERMUZ

OIL IS NOW BEING PRICED IN BTC

THE NEXT RESERVE CURRENCY 🔥

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸CNBC JUST REPORTED THE US HAS OFFICIALLY APPROVED #BITCOIN FUTURES FOR THE FIRST TIME

BTC "CAN NOW BE TRADED THROUGH EVERY MAJOR FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT IN TRADITIONAL MARKETS"

BTC TAKING OVER WALL STREET — NOT PRICED IN 🚀

[Shankar Sharma @1shankarsharma]

Since this Bear Market started ( and Yes, it's a full blown bear market, not a silly " correction" etc), Indian SM has been calling a bottom for the past 2 years.

That's okay: there is swarth anywhere you look: finfluencers, fund & wealth managers, MFDs, Media, etc.

So they have to believe a bull market is just seconds away.

The real intellectual question to ask is: how do you actually spot when the bear market ends in the Bull market starts?

The methods I have used broadly ( there are nuances- like the SS- Agreement in Motion, the secrets of which shall go to the grave with me, Lake of Returns Theory, explained superficially by me last couple years - etc.)

are:

If a decline in a market, ( say, India) is systemic, accompanied by a widespread decline in most markets ( 2000 bear market, 2008 bear market, 2020 short crash), then a 30-40% decline WITHIN 2 years, is a good enough level to start getting in.

Similarly, if a stock has declined but the entire market has also declined similarly, then that stock or sector becomes a decent buy within a fairly finite level of all - there is also science & data to determine this.

BUT BUT BUT

The falls that should never be bought - not for a long while - are isolated , tanhai-waali falls in a particular country or in a particular stock, without much obvious explanation - while the rest of the world or rest of that market itself is in a bull market

Companion-free falls & underperformances are huge red flags in my book: they point to reasons that are not visible just yet but there is something seriously wrong for a particular market to go in a totally different direction than the overall wind.

India, on all previous occasions, did exactly in line with what the rest of the world was doing: it fell after the NASDAQ crashed in 2000. It fell during 2008 in a global bear market. It fell exactly inline with the Global bear market in COVID.

But this time it IS DIFFERENT.

And that is why this time it is dangerous.

Because India is totally forsaken , desolate in the kind of market performance or the lack of it that it has displayed.

This has never happened before.

The rest of the world has been in a massive Bull market, AI and without AI ( LATAM, CEE eg).

My Global macro fund has never had an easier time making money while doing the least amount of work.

But looking at India you would think that the rest of the world was in a bear market.

But the world Bull markets are breaking open bottles of champagne.

India's bull is reduced to drinking tharra.

Exactly like a stock that does not rise in a broad bull market but keeps falling: never ever get into that stock.

There is something that the market knows that you do not.

India looks suspiciously like that haveli that nobody occupies, while all other havelis have all the lights and parties on.

These havelis are spooky.

These havelis have secrets. They are just not saying them out.

It is best to let Manoj Kumar or Biswajit open the haveli first & pry out evil aatma inside.

It is best to occupy a neighbouring chawl in the meanwhile.

But in my book, my method -

unexplained bear markets when everything around it is going gangbusters...

.I never try calling the bottom to those...

You just never know what lies beneath...

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

JUST IN: $920 BILLION WALL STREET GIANT STANDARD CHARTERED JUST SAID #BITCOIN IS GOING TO $100,000 THIS YEAR

"WE WILL LOOK BACK AT TODAY AS A GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY"

THEY ARE TELLING YOU, THE BOTTOM IS IN 🚀

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

BREAKING: The first Federal National Mortgage Association-backed mortgage using Bitcoin in the US just closed using Coinbase 🇺🇸

The homebuyer said: “We closed on our home and my Bitcoin stayed intact. We didn’t have to liquidate, didn’t have to time the market” 🙌

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

JUST IN: $12 TRILLION CHARLES SCHWAB JUST SAID LIVE ON BLOOMBERG THAT THE #BITCOIN BOTTOM IS IN

"BTC IS BACKED BY ENERGY"

"MINER COSTS HAS HISTORICALLY SERVED AS A PRICE FLOOR"

WALL STREET IS TELLING YOU 🔥

[🚨Indian Gems @IndianGems_]

Meet Rajesh Mehta,

Owner of Rajesh Exports

Showed Rs 15.15 lakh crore revenue in 5 Years

LIC invested 2,000+ crores

No one flagged for 5 years

Today SEBI announced Rs 15.15 lakh crore revenue was fake

Rajesh share dropped 80%

LIC lost almost 1,600 crores of common people money.

Believe it or die but Corruption in India is almost at the highest level.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he's looking forward to working with lawmakers on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve 👀

"We are proceeding with all deliberate speed. And we are making sure...we use best practices and things will be durable for the future" 🚀

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

BREAKING: CNBC JUST REPORTED ELON MUSK'S $2,000,000,000,000 SPACEX IPO FILING IS EXPECTED TODAY

THEY OWN OVER 18,000 BTC IN THEIR BALANCE SHEET

THE 1st TRILLION BTC COMPANY IS HERE 🚀

[Bitcoin Archive @BitcoinArchive]

BREAKING: MasterCard, Visa, and Stripe are closing in on a massive stablecoin venture.

[Bitcoin Archive @BitcoinArchive]

SOUTH AFRICA: High Court rules that Bitcoin constitutes both "capital" and "money" under the country's exchange control laws.

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

JUST IN: CFTC CHAIRMAN MICHAEL SELIG JUST SAID LIVE ON CNBC THE US HAS ENDED THE WAR ON #BITCOIN AND CRYPTO

"WE'RE DONE WITH THE LAWFARE"

"WE'RE DONE WITH PURSUING CERTAIN INDUSTRIES"

AMERICA WILL BE THE CRYPTO CAPITAL OF THE WORLD 🚀

[Bitcoin Archive @BitcoinArchive]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 The SEC has officially designated Bitcoin and crypto as a key focus in its new 5-year playbook.

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 THE #BITCOIN AND CRYPTO CLARITY ACT WAS JUST OFFICIALLY ADDED TO THE SENATE LEGISLATIVE CALENDAR

A FULL SENATE FLOOR VOTE IS COMING

IT'S FINALLY HAPPENING 🚀