For the last 3 months, after losing a big chunk of my portfolio, I've been reflecting on this a lot.
"Sell when your portfolio reaches your target, not when you think the market has topped".
I always thought that it was counterproductive to sell based on your own personal targets because your trading exposure and behavior should be dictated by the market. Attached, you can see a post by @DegenSpartan defending this point.
If I've achieved my goals with BTC at $50k, why would I sell if I think it's going over $100k? It never made any sense to me, in the same way that if your portfolio is $870k and you want to reach $1M, you don't force it to go there simply because your goal is $1M if the market is topping. You have to accept it, and let it go.
However, that mentality is quite idealistic, or realistic only for that 0.01%. Yes, it would be perfect but reality is that you are not going to nail it. How much money have you guys roundtripped? I bet a lot of people here achieved true freedom and amounts they could only wish for some years or even months ago, to later see it vanish in weeks. Illiquid shitcoins, revenge trading, leverage... some even rode 8 figs to 0.
You won't know if the market is topping because you don't have what it takes. The reason why you made a lot of money in the first place will be the same reason why you will lose it all—you are a perma-bull most of the time and your high risk tolerance gave you huge returns in the good times, but this same behavior and constant positive reinforcement due to consistent wins will blind you and get you rekt on the bad times. Not to mention timing: bottoms take months to form, and the top occurs in days especially after exponential runs.
Apart from the exceptional traders out there, you will likely be bullish again at the moment to sell because you've made it that way. And when wrong, like *really* wrong, some people cannot even handle it. If you've achieved your goals, why don't you just save the game and start again operating from a position of calmness, abundance, and objectivity? It's literally like a video game—you don't do it in one-go without shutting down the console.
There's something you realize when you lose a lot: you start valuing what you had much more and it somehow becomes more real than some numbers on the screen.
On the other side, I don't think you can ever make it if you're the one that thinks: "I'll get to that point and then I'll stop". That mentality will never get you even close to the target because you must love the game: learning > improving > winning. Money is just how to quantify your progress. But that doesn't mean you can save levels as you reach your goals.
Sometimes the upside doesn't really change your life that much vs. the risk you are taking. You've always be lured to think it's the time to be max exposed, you'll ALWAYS have a reason to be bullish.
The vast majority of people trading these markets should simply have a methodological approach to take profits and risk management.
• Remove all-in behavior from your system. Accept you are not that elite trader. Maybe one day, not yet.
• Take money out progressively regardless of your views on the market as you win.
• Establish bigger clear goals with R:R on your own lifestyle: above a certain net worth you start taking less risks because the upside won't change your life, but the downside will certainly will (eg. $500k -> $900k doesn't change your life as much as $500k -> $100k even though the net difference of $400k is the same).
Take more money out and reduce risk at those levels you establish for yourself. Your goal is to operate from a position of abundance rather than from fear and scarcity. You'd be surprised how much objective you can become—suddenly, there's no emotions that control you anymore.
• Still manage your risk depending on the market. You can certainly be more risk-on after ETFs have been approved, when FED started to cut, Trump won, or the next time that Trump, Bessent, or Powell literally tell you to buy.
Your risk management and portfolio allocation should be a combination of (1) market-dependent and (2) personal life-dependent circumstances, not one or the other.
Most of the people only focus on (1) and inevitably never make it because it's not realistic for most.
• Love the game, focus on progress, money comes after that. In order to make it, you can't ever stop. If you want to stop, you won't ever make it.
It’s do nothing and wait for obvious 3-10m coins season
Don’t get chopped up trading ai larp coins, animal communities, betas
Tracked wallets that giga cooked the runners today ( $dupe / $lemon / $supfriend ) and then end up negative from trading 20 other coins
Lesson in there
Just dusted every bag I own other than PENGU
What once was one of the better trades of my career going up 7 figs+ on a diversified meme portfolio has now come down to about 400kish in realized losses
I needed to harvest some losses to end the year otherwise I'd be getting shit on for the following tax year if these memes never went back up... continue.
HOT TAKES NOW FOLLOW:
I realized I was approaching memes the wrong way, trying to build a diversified portfolio of "cults" and memes sub 100m and survive til the "memecoin supercycle"
Don't get me wrong I still think that this could happen, but ik how to trade on a daily basis so what is the point in holding these memes that are trapped in 7-8 fig hell when there's a coin that goes beyond those prices seemingly every day
For example I have been holding Brainlet for about 4 months and there are literally hundreds of coins that have came and went and outperformed me sitting on my hands with Brainlet, I love the coin but seriously now to me there is no point in holding it anymore
The time to hold these type of coins has already came and went, you get to trade 8 figure runners literally every single day and even 9 fig runners every month
And even if that were to change ? Brainlet goes to 100m+ ? To me that would mean we are in the market where the new casual daily runner is prolly a 50-100m coin so I can't even lose in that scenario cause those are the type of coins that I am trading
Imagine missing AI cause people told you buy memes and then sit with your thumb in your ass until late 2025 ? Fuck that 😂I think literally 1000 coins have prolly launched that have came and went and outperformed "USA" and "MINI" if you just buy and sell and scope for the next runner if you know how to do this there just isn't a point in holding memes
The time to do that was very long ago when WIF and Popcat started the cycle, and when AI coins made a new meta
There will ALWAYS be outliers, but I am speaking for myself when I say that I am trader and I no longer feel the need to hold coins that are trapped in "consolidation" when I can outperform them on any given day that a runner launches
I will hold Pengu because it is a top 10 meme and too me its a comfortable sol beta, I think it will become one of the best memes this entire cycle but aside from that, I gotta get back to my roots just making money and taking it out 🤷♂️