IMHO, the reaction to @LukeGromen's latest pod is even more compelling than the content itself.
In prior years, this subject matter would have GUARANTEED weeks of attacks that we're "alarmist" and "exaggerating", and "fear mongering".
This time, it's ALL positive, and I'm getting CALLS AT HOME from people I know in pro finance saying everyone is raving this is the best podcast ever.
THESE ARE ALL SIGNALS. It's CONFIRMATION of Luke's view that we're moving from "Slowly at first" to "then all at once".
China isn't "on the cusp of commercializing" any fusion technology, US or otherwise. It's a total red herring/bunch of bullshit.
Of far greater significance is what China is in the process of commercializing (and it will take many years): the TS-MSBR first conceived by Alvin Weinberg in the 1960s. The TMSR-LF1 isn't a breeder, but that's their strategic aim and -LF1 has already made more progress than was made in MSRE at ORNL.
What's important to understand is that the real economic "game changer" won't come from Fusion. It will come from Fission fueled by fertile rather than just fissile source material. That can either be Thorium in thermal spectrum or DU in fast spectrum.
Fusion is way cooler for techno-geeks to marvel at, but what can change the world is using the economies of scale inherent to robotic assembly line mass-production to make nuclear energy cost less than fossil fuel energy. That's the game changer - the economic lever of cheaper-than-coal-or-gas. China gets this and is working toward mass-production of Thorium fueled MSRs. That's the angle that could eventually cripple the west economically. Fusion is a side show.
But almost nobody seems to care to learn and understand any of this stuff. I don't get it.
I just gave y'all some nuclear investing wisdom at least 1000x more insightful and valuable that my recent "viral" tweet restating well known expectations around SPUT ATM setting up a positive feedback. But I bet this post will see ~5% of the engagement the "dumbed down" tweet got.
Let's see what happens! People who didn't understand all of the above can easily get @grok to explain it to them if they're willing to invest five minutes. My prediction is few will care. This tweet doesn't give you a ticker symbol to buy tomorrow, so my prediction is much lower tweet engagement than the one that did. TLet's see...
Separate from Socrates, the War Cycle builds in intensity as does the ECM. I am trying to merge these models into a coherent book that I hope will be out for the WEC in November. This is not an easy project. https://t.co/b6c3GaPdwW
Another electric night on Ashe. Bright lights, loud music, rap royalty in the crowd. Few tough moments but NYC your energy got me through 🙌. Time to Lean Back 😆 then forward to R4.