@JoshuaSteinman @__searchlight_ @DOGE Cost benefit analyses are always doomed to fail due to incommensurables and overlapping probability distributions. The methodology Pierre Sprey and others used to get to A10 was sound, generally theorized in Boyd's destruction and creation.
@SubBrief The amount under construction is so high because the backlog is so great. This isnt a measure of thruput, as it was conveyed to me, but the tonnage on order being worked on. While VCS buildspans were supposed to get down to 60 months, they are actually around 96.
This, from the Walter Isaacson biography, is both an underrated aspect of SpaceX’s success, and the perfect example of why “cost plus” manufacturing (used by many aspects of US Government) is a terrible idea
@MergeNewsletter The 700B IC estimate is likely purchasing power adjusted. Chinas 2022 budget was like $230B, IISS estimates $319B, and if you adjust that MER for PPP instead (1.7x) you get like $550B. But in some things 4-5x might be more appropriate, maybe over $1T on the higher end.