If you wake up tomorrow and hyperliquid:native is at $150, will you be happy with the amount you have?
Or will you wait for $100 that never comes and buy again at $300?
Just want to point out a few things wrong/missing from this analysis to give a more informed take:
The takes on being a bucket shop are silly so won't even respond to that. I don't believe there is some "Holy" level of leverage to offer that the CME has mastered. The key is safety and being able to properly liquidate positions. People trading on high leverage want high leverage, period.
Crypto Share of Volume: Share relative to Binance is making fresh highs. Still at just 15%. Keep in mind since this is a % of Binance rather than a % of the whole, this can go above 100% in best case scenario (not saying this is likely).
AQAv2: 90% of the yield from USDC is being used to buy back HYPE. This is known but the flows don't start until October. Addition of $150-200M to ARR.
HyperCore Priority Fees: This was essentially 0 two months ago and a $20M ARR currently. This has a lot of room to grow potentially and is yet another signal that when this team ships, there is immediate uptake and boost to revenue.
HyperEVM network fees: burning around $1M HYPE/month
Ticker auctions: burning around $2.5M/year
HIP-4: brand new, currently no significant contribution. Kalshi and Polymarket have demonstrated PMF for Prediction Markets. I personally am not very bullish on this sector but maybe I'm wrong.
HIP-5 and beyond: the team continues to ship and most things they ship see real uptake. I could imagine them eventually launching options among other things.
The Regulatory Fork: Most serious money is still not allowed to use Hyperliquid. Hedge Funds are locked out because of LP agreements, and MMers for regulatory reasons. Opening up the market to America and to serious professionals like HFs/MMers. This would be tremendously bullish on volumes and liquidity. I call it a "fork" because the downside case is they get lawfared out forever. If this is your thesis, I implore you to watch this recent interview that I will link below with the CFTC chair.
Hyperliquid as a Liquidity Backend: we have already seen large uptake of builder codes as consumer-facing products such as Phantom and Fomo offer perps to users in their frontends via their builder codes. The best case scenario for Hyperliquid is that it becomes one of the liquidity backends for traditional brokers and MMers. If Hyperliquid can continue offering better pricing than CME (as they do on BTC/ETH/SOL futures), this could become a large source of future volume in the good regulatory scenarios.
Staking Rewards and Community Tokens: Lazy analysis values HYPE at its fully diluted value. More careful analysis realizes 1) most emissions go directly to existing token holders 2) future community emissions (nearly 40% of fully diluted supply) may never happen, partially happen, or be redirected to stakers over N number of years. If 1 HYPE staked today = 2 HYPE staked in N years, the price is effectively halved today (ignoring tax distortions). The circulating cap is around $17B today, and this isn't backing out any supply, including that owned by Hyperliquid Strategies DAT, which is presumably off the market.
Hyperliquid.
the entire cryptocurrency industry to date has produced one sound token in its entire existence
that token is $HYPE
more tokens are trying to mimic its success and sound design but in reality none have come close as there are very few use-cases for crypto that exists to create a consistent revenue stream even after all these years of development and progress
the only exception to this is $BTC which is a token that the industry builds itself around and perhaps $ETH which sits in a strange place on its own due to its unique history
$SOL on the other hand is nothing more than a shitcoin that funded the Solana blockchain and enriched its insiders
and due to the market structure that was formed through its shit design it will never appreciate in value again as it does not accrue any value, it only destroys and extracts it from its ecosystem
best case scenario is that maybe after significant changes and years of them taking effect the token will reach previous valuations
who will want to own such a token when there will be new and better tokens with more sound and exciting designs to come like $HYPE?
who will be the marginal buyers of such a shitty token?
nobody
this is why converting $SOL to $HYPE has been one of the easiest trades if you believe in the thesis of onchain trading and continues to be one of the easiest trades available today
hyperliquid
That's what most people miss.
The amount of fees a protocol makes literally DOESN'T matter.
Many projects in crypto make millions of dollars in fees.
99% of the time those fees go to the founders to fund their lifestyle.
With Hyperliquid 99% of fees are used to buyback the token.
If you don't benefit from holding a token - don't hold the token.
Of every $10M in daily fees Solana generates, ~$100K reaches the token. The rest leaks to apps and extractors.
$HYPE returns 97% of fees to holders.
That gap is the whole thesis. Full breakdown on why $HYPE > $SOL:
I lock $NEST on @NestExchange, I get free hyperliquid:native.
I spend my stable with @hyperbeat, I get free hyperliquid:native.
I supply $feUSD on @felixprotocol, I get free hyperliquid:native.
I stake hyperliquid:native on Hypercore, I get free hyperliquid:native.
I join @rekt_gang raffles, (if I'm lucky) I get free hyperliquid:native.
It doesn't matter if you buy them or manage to get them for free. What matters is that you have enough hyperliquid:native by the time they hit three figures.
Choosing @HyperliquidX over any CEX is a quiet, technical, slightly unhinged declaration that you actually want crypto to grow up without needing another FTX-shaped trust collapse every cycle
You want markets where manipulation has to fight consensus instead of hiding behind KYC walls and NDAs
You want the future where the rules are code and everyone can read the source
If that sounds like you… welcome to the onchain orderflow dimension
Hyperliquid.
This is not sped-up footage.
Borsa's order book now shows real-time order flow, every maker and every taker, updating the moment the book moves.
https://t.co/Vz3He78kC0
It feels like everyone owns $HYPE.
Words are cheap. Look at the facts.
In reality, only 244k people do.
The entire crypto industry is talking about Hyperliquid, yet adoption is still in its infancy.
People said HYPE was expensive at $5.
Then at $10.
Then at $20.
Then at $40.
Sideliners always say the same thing:
"It's too expensive."
Everyone buys at the price they deserve.
The House of All Finance.
HL Eco's dashboards are absolutely goated.
Elegant, true to HL branding and colors, and contains so many gems and capabilities.
Worth taking some time to explore the different dashboards and tabs.
Unpopular (popular) opinion: memecoins on hype were fun because they were the old meta we had just graduated on. People knew how to play that game. And they served a function, they validated that Hyperliquid was its own real chain with “real chain things” to trade.
They don’t really have any value now. And they aren’t interesting in comparison to the Hyperliquid ecosystem the way they were a year ago with a lot less to do as a user of the network. I’d have a lot more money if they were worth something today, so I’m pretty unbiased saying this.
That doesn’t mean none of them will ever be worth anything. I like seeing people post fat neko memes and still trying to do things with sincerity here. It’s the seed of what might become something real in time. But that’s not what most of last year was. Most of it was broke, desperate people pretending to like things so they could dump it on someone else. I’m happy to say most of the Hypio community as it stands today can count ourselves free of these types.
The point stands, though. Those degen cultural primitives pale in comparison to what Hyperliquid has become.
You can trade Chinese and Korean stocks this summer. On leverage. There are the beginnings of a prediction market layer. Yeah perps are more serious, Hyperliquid itself is more serious. The degenerate side of crypto gets relegated to a smaller part of this ecosystem, an ecosystem which in time will be massive.
When we see projects shutting down HIP-3 markets and other way more ambitious things than a memecoin or an nft, we can see that Hyperliquid is still wanting when it comes to competent teams. But the cultural side, the “old crypto” energy side is way worse off - almost entirely bereft. It is literally just us and a few other people who rep Hypurr or no nft at all.
There’s almost no one with anything worth selling on the culture side and almost no one interested in buying. For the time being it is all about $Hype and the cultural energy will have to be earned, brick by brick, like everything on Hyperliquid.
Hyperliquid