Adam Wolnikowski

AI @Nominal_io • “The choice is between constructing Babel or rebuilding Jerusalem.” - Pope Leo XIV on AI

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

Enough of this “SF is so back” nonsense

[delian @zebulgar]

My Nominal Series B memo (12/29/25):

Hey team,

We’re evaluating a pre-emptive FF double down (something like [redacted] at [redacted] post).

The company builds data pipelines and testing software, primarily for software that lives on hardware. A simple analogy would be Databricks for software that operates in the “real world.”

We did the seed back in fall 2022 ([redacted] at [redacted] post) and currently own [redacted] in FF7. They started this year at [redacted] commercial CARR + [redacted] federal ACV ([redacted] total), and are tracking to end the year at [redacted] commercial / [redacted] federal, which gets them to [redacted] total “blended ARR” for 2025. The 2026 base case is [redacted] blended ARR (CEO’s 90% confidence case) and internal target is [redacted] (50% confidence case).

We spent the last few days speaking with customers across a variety of use cases and industries, including Anduril, Radiant, General Matter, Shinkei, Regent, Wisk, and Antares. The feedback is positive, with a handful of exceptions from when the product was less mature very early on, or where the use-case is hyper-specific. We also spoke with Boeing and Lockheed Martin and they referenced very well there.

The deal setup is similar to the [redacted] round we led with Ramp last summer—it’s not a “value” deal but we have access edge as an insider, and Cameron really wants to deepen his relationship with FF. He has interest from [redacted], [redacted] etc. at [redacted]+ but he would be willing to take a small / low dilution round from FF now, and then raise a bigger round at a higher valuation in the spring from others. One added benefit is that we should be able to fund this via FF7 recycling (so we can effectively double our ownership in the same fund).

This round is definitely on the higher end of multiples. However, we think the company is sitting on latent P/M-fit potential. They’ve added [redacted] ARR this past year with only 2 sales people, which they plan to ramp to 15+ with a strong VP Sales from MongoDB. There’s also an incredibly large market of “software for hardware” that has largely been ignored by Silicon Valley.

The vast majority of venture dollars have flowed into developer tools made for engineers building SaaS/Social Media/Crypto, e.g. pure software/cloud products, vs developer tools made to interface with the real world. This has applications across A&D, Auto, Manufacturing, Chemicals etc. There are some generic tools in this category like MATLAB/LabVIEW, which require being technical to implement, and a few domain-specific tools, like IADS in airframe flight testing, but generally all of these incumbents are decades-old and the NPS is quite low, providing a very large opportunity for Nominal to capture. We believe they can get to $10b in EV just in their current use-case, but across the sectors listed.

Combining all of this, this feels like an ideal time to size up in the company, at a time where we can get a deal below market, and the company has the potential to 10x from here if they are able to execute on sales + product in a way where they expand beyond A&D and into more use cases. There’s a clear edge for us here, right now.

On a final note, I’ve known Cameron and Jason, two of the co-founders, since I was 17 and we were MIT classmates. Jason has always been one of the best engineers I’ve ever known. He started his career at Palantir building Foundry, where he references phenomenally well (from Schimpf etc.). Cameron has really impressed us with his growth over the past few years building Nominal, and he’s very much growing into the CEO role.

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

@lukas_m_ziegler Thank you! Lots to come in robotics for us :)

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

The last 8 months have been a wild ride! Nominal acquired Fid Labs in March right as the last round closed at a $1B valuation. Since then, we've built agents for engineers doing mission-critical work on everything from race cars to nuclear reactors, and we're just getting started 🚀

[Nominal @Nominal_io]

Nominal just raised $240M at a $3B valuation.

Engineers today are building some of the most ambitious machines humanity has ever seen. They should have AI that’s purpose-built for them.

We started Nominal with a simple observation, that hardware teams needed better ways to work with test data and make decisions from it. Over the past four years, we’ve built software that understands the complex realities of hardware development.

Now we’re building the Hardware Intelligence Platform that gives engineers increased visibility into complex physical systems, helps them make better decisions, and ultimately gets their products into the real world faster. It brings together the systems, data, intelligence, and applications hardware engineering requires to meet the AI moment.

Our Series C was led by @Lightspeedvp and co-led by @Insightpartners, with participation from Lux Capital, Sequoia, General Catalyst, Founders Fund, Avenir, Lockheed Martin Ventures, Salesforce Ventures, M13, DE Shaw Ventures, Deployment Capital, Avra, Red Glass Ventures, Carpenter Capital, Audacious, PSP, Overmatch Ventures, XYZ, Haystack, and Brave Capital.

Thank you to our customers, partners, team, and every hardware engineer building on Nominal.

Read more here → https://t.co/LEnefGOx9V

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

@Nominal_io Let's go! 🚀

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

We've also built an AI org filled with the most talented people I've ever worked with. Come build with us: https://t.co/LcXki8RdSm

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

@lcmedium It's complexity for me, can't stop thinking about it

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

@zanemountcastle Waymo in LAX?

[Wojciech Pawelczyk @WojPawelczyk]

It is always visually stunning to see cemeteries across Poland on All Saints Day after dark lit by grave candles like this:

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

@george_harris59 @PalmerLuckey If I get a creator payout from this I definitely owe you half

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

"I hate Gundo halloween, what do you mean you're @PalmerLuckey and his Warhound"

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

@katiesquestions @PalmerLuckey Our office costume contest poll just opened, they better agree with you 🙏

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

@rahoolionunna @PalmerLuckey I was about to go full send on it this morning until my gf shrieked when she saw me pick up a razor

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

@RyanEppley @PalmerLuckey Best part was interviewing an Anduril alum dressed like this

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

@reynoir_will @Nominal_io This is for the Nominal-specific category right

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

@reynoir_will @PalmerLuckey If this doesn’t win the office costume contest

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

@WillManidis Can't wait to read this, but damn is that some of the prettiest digital typesetting I've ever seen

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

@peteoxenham @mspringut hook these guys up with some Monumental

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

@generaldynamics Apparently the first one is a foil in a wind tunnel. Not affiliated with Poster House but it's a cool spot to visit in Flatiron https://t.co/ks5XOKSV7q

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

I was not familiar with the design game @generaldynamics had in the 50s

[Adam Wolnikowski @AdamWoptimized]

@IsaacBotkin @peteoxenham I used to do my best work with triptych monitors