Adam Golden

Real Estate Agent | Tri-Valley & San Ramon Valley Homes | Buying • Selling • Investing | 25+ Years | East Bay Market Expert | Father | Husband | Sport Fanatic

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

The Bay Area housing market

LEFT: Home price shift between spring 2024 to spring 2025

RIGHT: Home price shift between spring 2025 to spring 2026

Spillover from the AI Boom into housing was a little stronger a year ago in San Jose than now—however, it's the opposite in San Francisco—with much more upswing this year. Oakland is weaker—buyers have gained leverage there.

via ResiClub Terminal

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate on April 22, by year

4.58% -> April 22, 2018
4.35% -> April 22, 2019
3.43% -> April 22, 2020
3.14% -> April 22, 2021
5.38% -> April 22, 2022
6.66% -> April 22, 2023
7.43% -> April 22, 2024
6.98% -> April 22, 2025
6.32% -> April 22, 2026

[Jon Brooks @jonbrooks]

Really interesting chart.

Taxes & insurance are greater than 40% of the monthly housing payment....

Can it go even higher from here?

[Mike Simonsen 🐉 @mikesimonsen]

Nobody forecasted US home inventory shrinking in 2026, but the latest data is in and that's where it is pointing!

➡️941,000 homes on the market nationally, unchanged from last week and only 2.7% above last year. At this pace, we could have fewer homes available than a year ago by May.

➡️35 states still have less inventory than 2019, and 2019 was already a shortage
➡️Illinois has 75% fewer homes for sale than 2019. Florida is 12% below last year.
➡️Dallas just flipped negative YoY inventory

➡️Median list price is $440K, down from $450K last year
➡️Payments on the median home are 4.5% cheaper than a year ago, yet demand remains fragile

Rate volatility from the current macro environment is the biggest wildcard. The latest trends could reverse quickly.

full details in the video: https://t.co/mLY1nz0iKu

[Mike Simonsen 🐉 @mikesimonsen]

This just blows me away.

[Mike Simonsen 🐉 @mikesimonsen]

Here's this week's video with the details: https://t.co/FXw2hTLq2f

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

U.S. existing home sales totaled 223K in January 2026

That's the lowest January existing sales volumes since 2009

Turnover remains strained in the existing-home market

[Mike Simonsen 🐉 @mikesimonsen]

Man, it's remarkable how few people are behind on their mortgage.

Latest data through Q4 2025.

[ResiClub 🏡📊 @ResidentialClub]

Net domestic migration per 1,000 residents

BLUE = counties seeing more Americans move IN than move out

YELLOW = counties seeing more Americans move OUT than move out

Screen shot via the ResiClub Terminal

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

#NEW Final 2025 calendar year shift in home prices for the nation's 50-year largest metro area housing markets

YoY = Year-over-year

Want to stay updated on the U.S. housing market? Subscribe to the free version of ResiClub's newsletter here: https://t.co/0pFIA4zn0x

[ResiClub 🏡📊 @ResidentialClub]

20% of U.S. mortgage borrowers have an interest rate under 3.0%

1 in 5

[ResiClub 🏡📊 @ResidentialClub]

68.6% of U.S. mortgage borrowers have an interest rate under 5.0%, according to FHFA

Last quarter it was 70.4%

[Mike Simonsen 🐉 @mikesimonsen]

I've been sharing this trend for a while, and now the data is in:

More Americans now have an over-6% mortgage than have under 3%.

Those groups will behave very differently in the future!

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

The biggest home price declines are hitting the markets that overheated most during the Pandemic Housing Boom

My latest for ResiClub: https://t.co/W9EzbmWI4l

[Mike Simonsen 🐉 @mikesimonsen]

Doing some work with the Compass data team today. Thought this looked cool.

[ResiClub 🏡📊 @ResidentialClub]

Nearly 40% of owner-occupied homes have no mortgage

In some pockets of the country, that figure is +60%

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

Active U.S. housing inventory for sale:

April 2017 --> 1,198,424
April 2018 --> 1,102,064
April 2019 --> 1,137,198
April 2020 --> 941,733
April 2021 --> 435,663
April 2022 --> 379,978
April 2023 --> 562,966
April 2024 --> 734,318
April 2025 --> 959,251

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

UPDATED @FannieMae forecast for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate:

Q2 2025 -> 6.5%
Q3 2025 -> 6.4%
Q4 2025 -> 6.3%

Q1 2026 -> 6.3%
Q2 2026 -> 6.2%
Q3 2026 -> 6.2%
Q4 2026 -> 6.2%

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

For every 5 U.S. homes...

3 have a mortgage

2 are mortgage-free

Chart via @ResidentialClub

[Adam Golden @Adam_Golden]

Coming Soon
150 Sharene Lane, Unit 214 in Walnut Creek
1 Bed, 1 Bath, 695 square feet
Call/text for more details.