Adam Smith

Former Chief of Staff to the Chancellor of the Exchequer now author of

[Douglas McNeill @DAMcNeill]

I'm surprised that this flawed idea is still doing the rounds. I explain why on Substack. https://t.co/x2ibZVD4jo

https://t.co/q9i8qerqH0

[Alex Wickham @alexwickham]

EXCLUSIVE: Andy Burnham won’t commit to keeping Labour’s manifesto promises on tax and has opened the door to new tax rises if he becomes PM.

His decision to back the current fiscal rules wins him a reprieve from markets, but it limits his options to fund policies like council house-building. It raises the prospect of tax hikes.

Asked by Bloomberg if he is committed to Labour’s election manifesto pledges not to raise income tax, national insurance, VAT or corporation tax, his campaign declined to say so.

They also didn’t rule out new taxes on wealth.

Burnham’s spokesperson says he doesn’t want talk about tax policy during this by-election:

“Andy is fully focused on working hard for every vote in Makerfield so he can represent them in Parliament. Andy is not standing on a national manifesto at this election; he is standing to make a difference for the people of Makerfield and to bring the change he has delivered in Greater Manchester to the national stage.”

Burnham has recently called for the top rate of tax to be hiked to 50p and a council tax reevaluation to target the wealthy. “We have overtaxed labour and undertaxed wealth,” he said last year.

But former Jeremy Hunt SpAd Adam Smith says wealth taxes don’t raise sufficient revenue and it is inevitable Burnham will have to look at the big taxes if he is going to implement bolder policies.

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

Bond yields are rising again due to fears a new Prime Minister would loosen the fiscal rules. Some are saying this makes Keir Starmer’s case to stay for him. But there’s one potential challenger who might be seen even more favourably by the markets https://t.co/zBwSCrpmZ3

[Andrew Griffith MP @griffitha]

Burnham lives in fantasy land. Bond markets are just maths — you can’t fool them by changing names around.

Borrowing more means asking someone to buy your extra debt. That comes at a price.

Result: interest costs (already more than we spend on defence) go up even more.

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

How long before Starmer sacks whoever suggested he sack Sir Olly rather than adopt the approach outlined here by @lewis_goodall

[Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall]

The Mandelson affair was survivable. Keir Starmer’s explanation for it may not be. It is a parable of his premiership and its wider problems- that the explanation is always process, not politics.

Piece from me on the limits of process politics

https://t.co/XYX9j5uxgH…

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

I wrote about this in the @telegraph a few weeks ago. A brief look at the publicly available OBR timetable and process at the time showed they were lying. https://t.co/skWL4h6duZ

[Pippa Crerar @PippaCrerar]

This was in the foreword of the OBR's report. Agree with @peston it's weird that despite sending Rachel Reeves its *final* forecasts on 31 October (with all details about tax take more than wiping out productivity deficit) she still went ahead with Downing Street speech laying groundwork for income tax rate rise four days later.

And then a week after *that* she doubled down on rate rise in interview with @bbc, responding to a question on it by saying: "It would, of course be possible to stick with the manifesto commitments, but that would require things like deep cuts in capital spending".

Yet days later - after a very bumpy week for Keir Starmer's leadership - it emerged she had opted not to go ahead with plan, with Treasury sources briefing that tax take from higher than expected wage growth meant she didn't need to proceed.

Hard to escape feeling that this was a political choice amid anxiety over fall-out from manifesto breach. If not then why stick with the narrative for so long with all the market implications that entails?🤷

[Telegraph Business @TeleBusiness]

🖊️ 'Further tax rises to pay for the scrapping of VAT could do even more damage to the economy' | Writes @Adamtih

Read the whole story below ⤵️
https://t.co/GYVLyoxJFS

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

My latest @Telegraph article on why the labour rebels are condemning us all to yet more tax rises https://t.co/qOcocOHb8f

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

Tax rises are coming. But which ones and what does that mean for the Chancellor? I set out the options and implications in the @Telegraph https://t.co/zZYMLAU5WK

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

My thoughts on what the Conservatives should do on the economy are online @Telegraph https://t.co/5C6tpf3hhO

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

How useful are events like the IMF spring meeting from a political point of view? Not very in my view. Focus is better placed on the big picture issues of tax, spend and borrowing https://t.co/auLikGK9TH

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

I’m in @Telegraph today on why increasing taxes to subsidise certain favoured sectors is the wrong approach to ‘shelter’ British businesses from the Trump tariff storm https://t.co/3kUtOWLzwl

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

@julianHjessop Very good thread. I would also add, what’s the alternative? https://t.co/mAqW0fqD22

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

Politicians should stop blaming the OBR or the fiscal rules for the mess the Chancellor has got into. My latest for @Telegraph https://t.co/mAqW0fq5cu

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

My latest @Telegraph article is on how the political difficulties re welfare and spending facing the Chancellor now could be a walk in the park to what she will face in the autumn https://t.co/l2BUaKnpfe

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

My thoughts on what the government can and can’t do on welfare reform in the @Telegraph https://t.co/04us1Oz9in

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

How to fund an uplift in defence spending? In @Telegraph I showed how the Chx could halt her NICs rise. She could choose to use the spending cuts I outline to fund defence instead. Better than the suggestions to try and borrow more outside the fiscal rules https://t.co/MmyU1ejl81

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

The need to increase defence spending may actually make the spring forecast a bit easier for the Chancellor if she decides to raise taxes then to pay for it https://t.co/iznC8D5ZNQ

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

Compared to November the Bank of England thinks growth will be down, inflation up, unemployment up, and bank rate up.

[Adam Smith @Adamtih]

My latest Telegraph article on some of the other issues likely to cause the Chancellor problems

[The Telegraph @Telegraph]

✍️ 'The walls are closing in on Rachel Reeves' | Writes Adam Smith
https://t.co/7ZPSJKEDI3