Adarsha Dhakal

Founder & Editor of @Investozora. Independent U.S. financial news covering IRS tax refunds, Social Security payments, and federal payment systems.

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇨🇦U.S.-Canada trade talks have COLLAPSED.

The U.S. is imposing 50% tariffs on nearly $20 BILLION of Canadian goods.

PM Mark Carney says Canada will retaliate with dollar-for-dollar tariffs starting September 8.

Trump vs. Carney
Trade war escalates.

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

@cnnbrk When access to the news gets complicated, go straight to the sources. 😅 For Fed, Treasury & U.S. economic coverage based on primary sources: https://t.co/3grUB4uZit

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

The Federal Reserve’s new interest-rate settings took effect Thursday, September 17, raising the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.90% as the central bank put this week’s quarter-point policy increase into operation. https://t.co/tdKCWEkwTN

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

BREAKING: The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.74% on September 16 after the raised interest rates, while longer-term yields moved much less, sharply narrowing important gaps across the Treasury yield curve. https://t.co/bV5Tap9PK7

[Investozora @investozora]

🚨BREAKING: Fed hikes rates for the first time in 3 years. The new dot plot just changed the 2027 outlook: https://t.co/eriKHCtSnZ

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

BREAKING NEWS: Fed Rate Decision: Retail Sales Jump 1.2%, Raising Hike Stakes https://t.co/q1jMrqSCtr

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

Breaking: Some physical crude oil cargoes in Europe traded above $130 a barrel Tuesday as the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline increased pressure on supplies reaching buyers outside the Persian Gulf.
https://t.co/A8qV1jEwnO

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

The AI boom is becoming a macroeconomic story. Massive investment requires massive amounts of capital. If financing costs stay elevated, the question shifts from “How big can AI become?” to “How much capital can investors justify committing to it?”

That is a different question.

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

The dollar is not just a currency story. It is a global funding story. When U.S. yields rise, the world has to reconsider the relative return on dollar assets, the cost of dollar borrowing and the attractiveness of holding Treasuries. Watch rates first.

#Dollar #Markets

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

Stocks can keep rising while the bond market becomes increasingly uncomfortable. That divergence matters.

A 5% 10-year Treasury yield gives investors a much higher risk-free return while simultaneously raising the discount rate used to value future corporate earnings.

#Stocks

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

Oil above $100 creates a difficult problem for the Fed. Higher energy prices can push inflation higher even as they weaken household purchasing power.

That is the uncomfortable combination policymakers fear most: Higher prices + weaker demand.

#Inflation #FederalReserve

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

The AI trade has a problem that has little to do with AI models. Higher Treasury yields raise the cost of capital.

If the 10-year yield stays near 5%, investors have to demand more from companies spending enormous amounts today for profits expected years from now.

#AI #Markets

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

A Fed rate hike does not automatically solve inflation.

If inflation is reinforced by an oil supply shock, tighter monetary policy cannot create more crude.

What it can do is prevent the shock from spreading into wages, expectations and broader demand.

#Fed #Inflation

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

Stocks get most of the attention. But the bigger market signal may be coming from bonds.

The 10-year Treasury briefly crossed 5% as investors confronted inflation risks, rising oil prices and uncertainty around Fed policy. When bonds move, every asset responds.

#Bonds #Market

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

The Fed faces an unusually difficult decision. Oil is above $100, inflation remains above its 2% target, yet higher rates cannot create more oil.

The question is how much demand the Fed must weaken to keep a temporary shock from becoming persistent inflation.

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5%. That matters beyond Wall Street.

It raises borrowing costs across the economy, puts pressure on mortgage and corporate rates, and increases the government’s financing challenge.

The bond market is sending a message.
#Treasury #Fed

[Investozora @investozora]

Nearly 1 million Americans enrolled in Affordable Care Act health plans are set to receive $500 refund checks beginning in October, under a new program announced by the White House on September 10. https://t.co/e1gxZHVwNb

[Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense]

Price action in #USD and equity indices is what I look for to anticipate a potential counter-trend Turn Around Tuesday. #USD pulling back from key retracement or technical levels (eg, JPY155). Equity indices above opening levels. FWIW

[CNBC @CNBC]

The 10-year Treasury yield just hit 5%. How income investors can profit https://t.co/AlrazR5XnW

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

@CNBC The 10-year nearly hit 5%, but the bigger story is the speed of the repricing. Fed hike odds jumped to ~90% as inflation, oil and Treasury supply kept pressure on yields. Here’s the full breakdown ahead of Wednesday’s decision: https://t.co/yDm82GSaBd

[Adarsha Dhakal @Adarshadhakal12]

Kevin Warsh’s first real Fed test is here: inflation is still high, markets expect a hike, and Sept. 16 may define the Warsh era. https://t.co/On9zWRBD3G