Adrian Calamel

MENA Historian & Terrorism Scholar | France2050🇫🇷 | Buffalonian Geordie🦬🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿| Author of Forthcoming Book on Hezbollah

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

Regime change is applauded when #AlQaeda steamrolls #Syria w/ #Turkey's help and deposes a dictator?

Regime change is frowned upon when secular Iranians want a little help taking back #Iran from an even bloodier dictator?

This is the dystopian universe we are all experiencing.

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

@GongR1ght Hmmm…how many slave laborers died prepping Qatar for a WC?

How many #IRGC agents were allowed in stadiums to track dissidents?

How much was the Qatari bribe to get a WC in the desert?

[dan linnaeus @DanLinnaeus]

Iran is breaking the ceasefire after Ghalibaf threatened to attack if the US blockade isn’t lifted. Tehran sees the writing on the wall: in less than 90 days Iran’s economy is going to start unwinding.

The fractured post-Khamenei temp regime cannot wait to cash out on its rapidly dwindling supply of deliverable on-water oil while sitting on a currency that is already close to being worth less than the printing process. The bazaar and FX market are pricing the cliff forward.

Loadings are at a six-year low at 209–260 kbd, 84–89% down from March-April and production has been force cut from 2.75 toward 1.2–1.3 mbd as storage fills. That in and of itself presents acute risk of longterm economic damage as storage is set to run out in around 3 weeks, though incoming empty vessels and rail links can assuage the timeline compression.

Of Iran’s 147M barrels of crude and condensate afloat, 67M are now trapped behind the blockade line, up from 60M because nothing is getting out. Only 80M sit outside deliverable to China, down from 124M a month ago and from a 184M peak.

At the current drain rate of 1 mbd that’s 80 days of runway. The headline is glaring: hold the blockade two to three more months and Iran has no oil left to sell to China. But the overall revenue is the crueler picture.

Iranian barrels are paid on a delay of around 2 months after 25-45 day voyage. This cuts both ways, since it also means Tehran is still booking spring payments today.

1.1Mbpd were China’s discharges in May, and since they are paid on delivery, Iran booked higher market prices. Though not anywhere near the market’s $104, since Iranian crude clears to Chinese teapots at distress discounts.

At market the 80M remaining would convert to over $8Bn, but factoring that not all of it is easily monetisable given weak teapot margins, that seizures have already pulled barrels off the board, and that a chunk of the payment chain ran through a UAE banking system that Bessent’s Economic Fury and GCC cooperation is tightening, on paper realized is closer to $4–5B.

Accessible FX is less still. Trapped, discounted, hard to repatriate barrels don’t convert cleanly into salaries, subsidies, and imports.

Stacked together, Treasury’s Economic Fury, the US Naval blockade, Epic Fury’s damage to the production and export base, and a rial already near worthless, has Tehran staring down the barrel of a balance of payments shock within a 2-3 month window.

This is why Ghalibaf threatened war if the blockade isn’t lifted and why missiles are now flying. The regime is watching this clock and cannot wait to cash out.

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

@JohnWight1 Until the Cartels overrun it.

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

Will the REGIME’s TEAM enter the US via Hezbollah and Los Zetas tunnels?

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇮🇷🇲🇽 Iran's World Cup team has arrived in Tijuana, Mexico.

They can only enter the U.S. to play their matches and have to leave the same day.

Writer: Daniyal

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

@IraninSA

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

@BlueGeorgia Lied about Benghazi. Lying about Iran.
Obama’s shadow president under Biden is a pathological liar.

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

@grahamformaine

[Andrea Stricker @StrickerNonpro]

Full article: https://t.co/Q5AMUWjizY

[WION @WIONews]

Donald Trump: Don't need deal to get enriched Uranium

Trump: Open to meeting Khamenei if deal reached

Marco Rubio condemns the attack on Kuwait Airport

Terrorism Scholar, @AdrianCalamel joins @JyotsnaKumar13 and @kripatistic with more insights

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

@FranceskAlbs How can you litigate without an actual Law degree Franny? When do you plan on taking a bar exam?

[Mark Dubowitz @mdubowitz]

What the U.S. Has Accomplished in Iran

Strategic patience is hard, and it isn’t always satisfying. But time is on the side of the U.S. and its allies. Reaching no deal is fine. Reaching a bad deal isn’t, writes @CondoleezzaRice. https://t.co/8mYi3IP1Jh

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

@meg_polk @BobKnoblaw @RepLuna @mtgreenee @codepink @Tasnimnews_EN It certainly feels like it. An assault on the English language.

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

@BobKnoblaw @RepLuna @mtgreenee @codepink @Tasnimnews_EN

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

@BobKnoblaw @RepLuna @mtgreenee @codepink @Tasnimnews_EN So you have ZERO understanding of FP.

Good to know, enjoy ostrich world.

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

@SteveGrubbsVXR @RepLuna @mtgreenee @codepink 😂

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

@BobKnoblaw @RepLuna @mtgreenee @codepink @Tasnimnews_EN Go hitch your carriage to the MTG, Tucker, Massie, The View, Candace, Piker, Code Pink Wagon.

Let me know how that works out for you.

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

@BobKnoblaw @RepLuna @mtgreenee @codepink I reckon you haven’t subjected yourself to reading her incoherent tweets or listened to Margie’s vapid comments. I get it Bobby, it’s hard work.

When you are copying and pasting directly from @Tasnimnews_EN it would appear it’s not just CCP influence.

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

@grahamformaine

[Adrian Calamel @AdrianCalamel]

@FmrRepMTG Can we get transparency around this Margie?