Regime change is applauded when #AlQaeda steamrolls #Syria w/ #Turkey's help and deposes a dictator?
Regime change is frowned upon when secular Iranians want a little help taking back #Iran from an even bloodier dictator?
This is the dystopian universe we are all experiencing.
@GongR1ght Hmmm…how many slave laborers died prepping Qatar for a WC?
How many #IRGC agents were allowed in stadiums to track dissidents?
How much was the Qatari bribe to get a WC in the desert?
Iran is breaking the ceasefire after Ghalibaf threatened to attack if the US blockade isn’t lifted. Tehran sees the writing on the wall: in less than 90 days Iran’s economy is going to start unwinding.
The fractured post-Khamenei temp regime cannot wait to cash out on its rapidly dwindling supply of deliverable on-water oil while sitting on a currency that is already close to being worth less than the printing process. The bazaar and FX market are pricing the cliff forward.
Loadings are at a six-year low at 209–260 kbd, 84–89% down from March-April and production has been force cut from 2.75 toward 1.2–1.3 mbd as storage fills. That in and of itself presents acute risk of longterm economic damage as storage is set to run out in around 3 weeks, though incoming empty vessels and rail links can assuage the timeline compression.
Of Iran’s 147M barrels of crude and condensate afloat, 67M are now trapped behind the blockade line, up from 60M because nothing is getting out. Only 80M sit outside deliverable to China, down from 124M a month ago and from a 184M peak.
At the current drain rate of 1 mbd that’s 80 days of runway. The headline is glaring: hold the blockade two to three more months and Iran has no oil left to sell to China. But the overall revenue is the crueler picture.
Iranian barrels are paid on a delay of around 2 months after 25-45 day voyage. This cuts both ways, since it also means Tehran is still booking spring payments today.
1.1Mbpd were China’s discharges in May, and since they are paid on delivery, Iran booked higher market prices. Though not anywhere near the market’s $104, since Iranian crude clears to Chinese teapots at distress discounts.
At market the 80M remaining would convert to over $8Bn, but factoring that not all of it is easily monetisable given weak teapot margins, that seizures have already pulled barrels off the board, and that a chunk of the payment chain ran through a UAE banking system that Bessent’s Economic Fury and GCC cooperation is tightening, on paper realized is closer to $4–5B.
Accessible FX is less still. Trapped, discounted, hard to repatriate barrels don’t convert cleanly into salaries, subsidies, and imports.
Stacked together, Treasury’s Economic Fury, the US Naval blockade, Epic Fury’s damage to the production and export base, and a rial already near worthless, has Tehran staring down the barrel of a balance of payments shock within a 2-3 month window.
This is why Ghalibaf threatened war if the blockade isn’t lifted and why missiles are now flying. The regime is watching this clock and cannot wait to cash out.
🇮🇷🇲🇽 Iran's World Cup team has arrived in Tijuana, Mexico.
They can only enter the U.S. to play their matches and have to leave the same day.
Writer: Daniyal
Donald Trump: Don't need deal to get enriched Uranium
Trump: Open to meeting Khamenei if deal reached
Marco Rubio condemns the attack on Kuwait Airport
Terrorism Scholar, @AdrianCalamel joins @JyotsnaKumar13 and @kripatistic with more insights
What the U.S. Has Accomplished in Iran
Strategic patience is hard, and it isn’t always satisfying. But time is on the side of the U.S. and its allies. Reaching no deal is fine. Reaching a bad deal isn’t, writes @CondoleezzaRice. https://t.co/8mYi3IP1Jh
@BobKnoblaw@RepLuna@mtgreenee@codepink I reckon you haven’t subjected yourself to reading her incoherent tweets or listened to Margie’s vapid comments. I get it Bobby, it’s hard work.
When you are copying and pasting directly from @Tasnimnews_EN it would appear it’s not just CCP influence.