Adrian | Growth & Investing

Stay humble. Stay curious. Play the long game.

$PLTR $TSLA $SPCX Investor

[Adrian | Growth & Investing @AdrianLongGame]

@NPjoa_Hodl Seems Karp also mentioned this before

[Adrian | Growth & Investing @AdrianLongGame]

@clashgithub88 昨晚漲了不少主要也是這原因

[Adrian | Growth & Investing @AdrianLongGame]

大公司開始防 Anthropic，真正受益的可能是 Palantir？ https://t.co/3wwSB4IAna

[Adrian | Growth & Investing @AdrianLongGame]

@Dhruvkumar16797 @grok 總結影片

[Adrian | Growth & Investing @AdrianLongGame]

NVIDIA真的開始使用Palantir了！

昨天 NVIDIA 與 Palantir 公布最新合作，但我認為市場最值得留意的，並不是兩家公司「合作」這件事。

而是——

NVIDIA 自己正在使用 Palantir。

NVIDIA 已經把 Palantir Foundry、AIP 和 Ontology 部署到自己的供應鏈，建立 Digital Supply Chain Intelligence Command Center。

簡單來說：

NVIDIA 算力＋Nemotron AI模型
＋ Palantir Foundry / Ontology
＝ NVIDIA自己的AI供應鏈大腦

它會整合材料、庫存、產能、供應商、生產進度等資料，再配合 NVIDIA cuOpt 及 Nemotron，協助 NVIDIA 決定：

有限的關鍵零件應該分配到哪裡？
哪個環節出現瓶頸？
怎樣縮短從晶圓到GPU真正開始運算的時間？

為什麼我覺得這件事對 $PLTR 很重要？

因為以前的故事是：

NVIDIA提供AI算力 → Palantir把AI帶進企業

現在變成：

連NVIDIA自己，也用Palantir管理最核心、最複雜的供應鏈。

這等於給了 Palantir 一個非常強的企業級 reference case。

如果 Palantir 能管理 NVIDIA 這種涉及數百萬零件、數千供應商的全球供應鏈，未來同一套架構就有機會複製到：

半導體、汽車、能源、醫療、航太、製造業。

所以我認為這次最大的意義，不一定是 NVIDIA 本身能為 Palantir 帶來多少收入。

真正值得留意的是：

Palantir正在證明自己可能成為AI時代企業的「決策層」。

NVIDIA 提供算力和模型，
Palantir 負責把 數據＋AI＋企業流程＋決策 真正連起來。

這可能才是 $PLTR 長期故事中最重要的一塊。

#Palantir #PLTR #NVIDIA #NVDA #美股 #美股投資 #AI #人工智能 #投資

[Adrian | Growth & Investing @AdrianLongGame]

@xingjia520 1000多萬應該是村屋？

[Adrian | Growth & Investing @AdrianLongGame]

NBIS×PLTR：利好有多大？

看到 Nebius（NBIS）与 Palantir（PLTR）合作，先别急着当成「又一张百亿美元大单」。

我的判断：NBIS 的增长机会更值得期待，PLTR 则补强平台能力。但合作机会，不等于已落袋收入。

🔍 合作≠大订单

Nebius 成为 Palantir 面向商业客户的首选主权 AI 基建伙伴，但公开公告未披露合约总值、最低采购额或独家条款。

「首选」不是「独家」，PLTR 的客户也不会自动变成 NBIS 客户。

🚀 NBIS：重点不只多卖 GPU

真正的机会，是透过 PLTR 接触有明确需求的企业，让算力用于日常营运，而非只做短期测试。

不过，如果容量本来已有人买，新客户的价值就要看价格、合约期限及服务利润，不能把整笔消费当成新增收入。

假设同一批容量原本带来1亿美元收入，新客户支付1.3亿，增量是3,000万，不是1.3亿；还未扣额外成本。

🧠 PLTR：让企业工作流程留在平台

它不一定要拥有最强模型，而是让企业的资料、权限与业务流程留在自己的平台。

Nebius 增加部署与算力选择，可能帮助更多项目由试点转向正式使用。重点是软件扩约，不是预设 PLTR 能从每笔 GPU 消费抽成。

⚠️ 最大风险：收入增长≠股东回报

NBIS 仍要考虑硬件、数据中心、融资及股权稀释。收入增加，不代表每股现金流同步改善。

值得追踪的是：合作能否结合第三方出资的基建模式，减轻 NBIS 的资本负担？目前未披露采用这项安排，不能先当成已经「轻资产化」。

接下来，我只看三件事：
付费客户有多少真正上线？收入是新增还是替代？扣除成本后，股东能留下多少现金？

结论：这不是「合作就必涨」，而是值得追踪的商业机会。我较看重 NBIS 的上行空间，但不等于它的股票一定比 PLTR 更值得买。

研究分享，非投资建议。

#NBIS #PLTR #美股 #AI投资 #Nebius #Palantir

[Adrian | Growth & Investing @AdrianLongGame]

@Wujizhuzhu 非常同意，正努力向這幾方面發展

[Adrian | Growth & Investing @AdrianLongGame]

@Money_or_Life_X Elon薪酬方案其中之一項KPI好像是要一百萬輛在街上跑？

[Adrian | Growth & Investing @AdrianLongGame]

@BTCdayu 來香港定居了嗎？

[Adrian | Growth & Investing @AdrianLongGame]

@Money_or_Life_X 合併只是時間問題？

[Tesla Asia @Tesla_Asia]

Cybercab will be on display in Asia this month!
Come experience the future of autonomy in Hong Kong, Tokyo, Beijing & Shanghai.

[Adrian | Growth & Investing @AdrianLongGame]

@hamptonism Sorry poor burry

[Adrian | Growth & Investing @AdrianLongGame]

@dannycheng2022 別人恐懼我貪婪😂

[Antonio Linares @alc2022]

$AMD and $PLTR have 10 years of extreme winning ahead

It’s day 1

[Adrian | Growth & Investing @AdrianLongGame]

Is Google starting to eat Palantir’s cake?

Google has released Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber (a cybersecurity / vulnerability-detection AI) aimed at government customers. That target market is exactly Palantir’s core, which has sparked some competitive concern.

The customer overlap is real on the surface. At the product layer, they are barely the same thing:
Flash Cyber is strong at software supply-chain security — scanning open source, scanning internal codebases, and auto-patching vulnerabilities.
Palantir is strong at the operational and government operating system: stitching satellites, sensors, human intelligence, logistics, and targeting data into a single ontology so analysts and commanders can actually do the work.

In the same week, the Army awarded Palantir a production contract for TITAN ground stations — tactical intelligence, deep sensing, and targeting-access nodes. That is not the same product line as “an AI that helps you patch Chrome vulnerabilities.”

A more accurate framing:

• Google is going after the slice of cake that is “cheap, strong cybersecurity LLMs that governments also need.”

• Palantir sells “the operating platform governments already run, and that is hard to rip out.”

• The two will meet in government AI procurement budgets, but they will not one-for-one replace Gotham / Maven in the near term.

When would this threat become real?

For it to turn into genuine competition, Google still has several steps to take:

1. From model to platform
Fairwind today is “model + harness” (Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber + CodeMender). Palantir’s moat is ontology, permissions, audit, already-deployed workflows, and trained people. A strong model alone is unlikely to displace the whole stack.

2. Classification and trust
Google has made progress in the government market (Gemini for Government, https://t.co/n2PKiOmxz4), but internal employee pushback and the old Project Maven controversy still linger. Palantir was built from the start for classified environments.

3. From “patching holes” to “operational decision-making”
If Google wires the Cyber model into battlefield data, C2, and the targeting chain, that would be a direct collision. Public materials have not gone that far yet.

4. Procurement tempo
Government contracts switch slowly. TITAN moving from prototype to production means Palantir is already locked into hardware-plus-software delivery. A new model will not squeeze that out next quarter.

[Adrian | Growth & Investing @AdrianLongGame]

Ten-Bagger Research Room: $RKLB Rocket Lab

Rocket Lab has the potential to become a major end-to-end space platform.
However, from its current valuation, another 10x would represent a low-probability super-bull scenario rather than the base case.

【What Would a 10x Require?】

As of August 28, 2026:

•Share price: US$64.39
•Market capitalization: approximately US$38.5 billion
•10x share price: US$643.90

After accounting for convertible preferred shares, stock issued for the Iridium acquisition, employee equity awards and potential future financing, RKLB may need a market capitalization approaching US$500 billion to deliver a tenfold return per share.

【Why Is It Worth Studying?】

Rocket Lab’s fundamentals are improving:

•Q2 2026 revenue reached US$234 million, up 62% year over year
•Backlog reached US$2.36 billion
•Electron has demonstrated its launch capabilities
•Space Systems is winning larger defense and satellite contracts

If Neutron successfully enters commercial service, Rocket Lab could expand from small-launch services into large constellation deployments and national-security missions.

The Iridium acquisition would add global spectrum, a satellite communications network, recurring revenue and cash flow—moving Rocket Lab closer to becoming an integrated space platform.

【A Ten-Bagger Still Has to Pass the Numbers Test】

Based on current quarterly data and Iridium management’s projections, the two companies have a combined 2026 revenue base of approximately US$1.9 billion to US$2.0 billion.

To support a valuation approaching US$500 billion by 2036, revenue may need to exceed US$25 billion to US$50 billion—even if the market continues to award the company a premium valuation.

That would require approximately 30% to 40% compound annual growth for ten consecutive years.

【Key Risks】

•Rocket Lab is still consuming cash, with operating cash flow of negative US$134 million in the first half of 2026
•The Iridium transaction could add several billion dollars of debt and further shareholder dilution
•A successful Neutron debut would not, by itself, prove scalable production, reusability or attractive unit economics
•Revenue growth may not translate into free cash flow per share

Based on a scenario analysis incorporating the starting valuation, required revenue growth, technical risks and dilution, a 10x return for RKLB by 2036 can be viewed as an estimated 5% to 12% tail outcome.

This is not a statistical forecast. It is a research range intended to illustrate how demanding the underlying assumptions are.

【What Should Investors Track Next?】

1. Can Neutron establish a reliable launch record?
2. Can Space Systems continue winning large prime contracts?
3. Can Iridium evolve from a cash-generating business into a growth platform?
4. Can revenue growth translate into free cash flow per share?

RKLB deserves a place on the ten-bagger research watchlist.

But at this stage, the more accurate description is:

A strong company, a high-expectation valuation and an exceptionally demanding execution path.

#TenBaggerResearch #RKLB #RocketLab #USStocks #GrowthInvesting

This content is based solely on public information for research and educational purposes. It does not constitute investment advice.