Adrian Ortiz

Studying the Market📈

[Adrian Ortiz @AdrianOrtz28]

It’s not a coincidence

[La Saumure @Analystlearner]

The chart is showing link between financial conditions and commodity cycle. While the last decade was driven by liquidity impulse / low inflation, this one is likely to be driven again by commodities, which would mechanically tightening financial conditions.

[Adrian Ortiz @AdrianOrtz28]

La reserva federal subió tipos al 4%, con un mercado descontado esa subida al 90%.

Kevin por fin escuchó al mercado que lleva avisando durante 2 años que la política de la FED estaba equivocada.

La subida es tardía, el daño ya está echo.

GOLD.

[Adrian Ortiz @AdrianOrtz28]

H.4.1 — Señales de que la Fed absorbe deuda del Tesoro - QE Funcional -

1. Securities Held Outright – Treasury Securities ↑
2. Breakdown:
- Bills ↑ → Fed absorbiendo deuda corta del Tesoro
- Notes/Bonds ↑ → Fed absorbiendo duración

[JackTheRippler ©️ @RippleXrpie]

🚨BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Ripple lawyer Stuart Alderoty says that #XRP already has clarity, and the SEC, in collaboration with the CFTC, will create the rules.

[Satoshi Flipper @SatoshiFlipper]

The SEC already said they would create the same rules for crypto if The Clarity Act failed.

We don't need Congress.

The SEC will get it done instead now.

[Adrian Ortiz @AdrianOrtz28]

Con la FED absorbiendo deuda del tesoro, desde mi humilde opinión no tiene sentido que suba tipos.

Ya que seria financiando indirectamente al tesoro mientras intenta enfriar la economía. Compra deuda para relajar condiciones financieras, pero subo para endurecerlas. :)

[Adrian Ortiz @AdrianOrtz28]

H.4.1 — Señales de que la Fed absorbe deuda del Tesoro - QE Funcional -

1. Securities Held Outright – Treasury Securities ↑
2. Breakdown:
- Bills ↑ → Fed absorbiendo deuda corta del Tesoro
- Notes/Bonds ↑ → Fed absorbiendo duración

[Adrian Ortiz @AdrianOrtz28]

3. Reserve Balances ↑ → Fed inyectó liquidez
4. ON RRP ↓ → liquidez vuelve a bancos
5. TGA ↓ → Tesoro liberó liquidez

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

I’ve said many times that the CLARITY Act is essential to ensuring America wins the global race for new technology. That’s the reason Congress passed the GENIUS Act: to ensure that stablecoin infrastructure, a revolutionary financial technology, will be built in America.

Ensuring that America’s community bank sector continues to thrive has been a constant focus of mine since day one. And the administration’s dual focus on enabling new digital technology to flourish and appropriately tailoring community bank regulation is key to both sectors driving U.S. economic growth together over the next several decades.

The final draft of the CLARITY Act furthers this mission. It gives the Secretary of the Treasury additional authority to act if the facts around deposit flight change to the detriment of community banks. If stablecoins cause harm to community banks, I will not hesitate to use these tools to ensure they remain fully protected. Community banks are essential to U.S. economic performance and Main Street growth. Economic security is national security, and community banks play a major role in this principle.

[Adrian Ortiz @AdrianOrtz28]

La mayoría de rendimientos de bonos se encuentran haciendo máximos o acercándose a máximos

¿Dónde pondrías tu dinero?

- Divisas con Carry trade positivo?
- En economías con bajo interés en su deuda?
- Metales?
- economías con % alto de tipos elevados?

[Adrian Ortiz @AdrianOrtz28]

Curioso que la gente hable de la inflación del 3,5%… pero en realidad los consumidores están viviendo con una inflación al 7% ( precios de importación + precios de exportación / 2 )

Mercado de bonos globales ahogando economías, deuda elevada, intervenciones coordinadas, BRICS..

[Adrian Ortiz @AdrianOrtz28]

@ViicTToR_20 @CESabadell Yo no voy a ir, pero al ir con nombre y DNI está jodido la cosa

[Barchart @Barchart]

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he is the house now, bet against the Japanese Yen if you dare 🚨 🚨

[Stern Drew @SternDrewCrypto]

🚨 Treasury Secretary Dares Traders to Short Yen and Then Drops This Chilling Line: “I Am the House Now”

Scott Bessent Just Triggered the Biggest GameStop Moment Ever. The Treasury Boss Just Lit the Fuse on a Trillion-Dollar Yen Squeeze.

Scott Bessent just dropped a bombshell: He claims, “Secret, asymmetric intel on Japan’s next policy move and is openly taunting anyone betting against the yen.”

When the guy running America’s finances says “I am the house now,” it means the game is rigged and retail traders, hedge funds, and crypto degens are the suckers at the table.

The yen carry trade… the massive, leveraged bet that has pumped stocks, Bitcoin, and risk assets for years is hanging by a thread.

If Bessent’s “insight” is real and Japan suddenly tightens or intervenes, the unwind could be violent: exploding USD/JPY volatility, forced liquidations, a rush for dollars, and cascading losses across equities and crypto.

One wrong move and trillions in cheap yen-funded positions get crushed.

This isn’t just forex drama. It’s a warning shot that Washington thinks it has the upper hand in the U.S.-Japan monetary chess game.

Traders who fade the yen now risk getting steamrolled by policy they can’t see coming.

The house always wins and Bessent just told you he’s dealing the cards.

[Adrian Ortiz @AdrianOrtz28]

Desde finales de agosto veo que las commodities empezaron a ejercer presión, aumentando así las expectativas de inflación y así aumentando el rendimiento real

+ Inflación + mayores rendimientos reales = mayores costos de oportunidad de mantener oro.

[Adrian Ortiz @AdrianOrtz28]

Lila - DFII10 ( 10y real yield )
Rosa - T10YIE ( 10Y breakeven inflation )
Azul - Commodity presure ( Cada componente compara el precio inmediato/contrato futuro de referencia )

* 🍊 Zumo: FTM1!/FTMZ2026
* ☕ Café: KT1!/KTZ2026
* 🍬 Azúcar: SA1!/SAV2026
* 🛢️ WTI: WTI1!/WTIZ2026

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

A new structural buyer has emerged in the gold market.

Since 2024:

- Tether: 73.6t
- China: 49t

Tether has purchased more gold than China officially and now holds more gold than Australia, the world's third-largest gold producer.

We've never had a gold bull market with a structural bid like this.

[Adrian Ortiz @AdrianOrtz28]

Already when he came out commenting that any country that helped Iran would be sanctioned / out of the dollar system - the name of China was there in the middle

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Bessent: Iran pressure campaign won't succeed unless Chinese firms face secondary sanctions

[Adrian Ortiz @AdrianOrtz28]

It is among the great dealer/market makers EEUU. These people don't warn you to benefit, it's similar when you owe money to a great friend and you tell him that X day you will give it to him and when he arrives and doesn't have it - surprise, you won and he lost for trusting.

[Barchart @Barchart]

The Fed will hike rates in September and December, warns Deutsche Bank 🚨 🚨

[Adrian Ortiz @AdrianOrtz28]

@financialjuice Japan is fed up with Bessent

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Bessent: Japan likely reached end of Abenomics reflation program