Adam

LNG Professional.
Energy regulatory and policy specialist.
Arsenal fan.
Views are my own.

[Adam @AdsB]

This current US equities rally is crazy.

QQQ and SPY are at fresh ATHs while Hormuz is still shut, Iranian ports are blockaded, Brent is +55% YTD, and US gasoline is +37%.

And still QQQ and SPY are just ripping.

Doesn’t even look strong underneath either. Mag 7 is doing most of the lifting, breadth is poor, volume is light, and RSI is oversold on the 1h, 4h and daily.

IMF, ECB and BOE are all basically saying energy inflation and growth are taking a hit even if the war ended today.

But Bessent and Trump are saying it’ll all be fine.

No deal has actually happened yet. And even if one does, it’s still worse than the old status quo if Hormuz tolls are part of it.

Absurd rally. Don’t get trapped.