Olivia
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Crypto Hunter 95
@AhmicHamid
Joined November 2024
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I said that if $BTC dumps below $60,000, I’d give away $20,000 in Bitcoin to 15 people.
Well, we made it.
As promised, I’m giving away $20,000 in $BTC to 15 lucky winners today.
To enter:
✅ Like
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✅ Comment “BTC” 🔔
Entries close in 24 hours. Good luck!
Stock Market 1973: The Crash that Started after the Embargo was lifted
Instead of Reading you can simply listen to this report: https://t.co/Ici4KM6QMP
Do you know that the biggest Stock Market crash since the great depression happened after the Oil Embargo was lifted, and not during the Oil Embargo ? The lesson from 1973–1974 is much darker. The biggest crash did not happen during the oil embargo. The biggest crash started after the embargo was lifted, exactly when everyone thought the crisis was over.
1. THE EMBARGO WAS ONLY THE FIRST SHOCKA: An oil embargo simply means oil supply is restricted or blocked from reaching the market. In 1973 when the Oil Embargo was announced, The S&P 500 dropped roughly 20% after the embargo started. Most people think that was the real damage. Wrong. That was only the first shockwave
2. THE REAL DAMAGE CAME AFTER “THE WORST IS OVER”: The oil embargo officially ended in March 1974. This should have been bullish. The crisis was supposedly over, oil flows were expected to normalize. Instead, the opposite happened. From the moment the embargo was lifted, the S&P 500 entered the real collapse and crashed 40% in the following weeks. This is the part almost nobody understands: the crash did not happen because the embargo was still active. The crash happened because the damage had already infected the economy.
3. THE MARKET PRICED THE DAMAGE: The embargo ending did not magically erase the damage that was created during those months. That is why the market crashed after the “good news.” The headline was bullish, but the economy underneath was already broken. Even more shocking: oil did not collapse after the embargo ended. Over the following years, oil continued to rally massively, more than 300%, not because of a classic modern short squeeze, but because of a brutal supply squeeze, inflation, and a full repricing of energy.
4. IS HISTORY REPEATING?: In 1973, only around 5–7% of global oil demand was affected for roughly 5 months, and the result was one of the worst stock market crashes since the Great Depression. Today, a much larger share of global oil flows has been under pressure for months, while the S&P 500 is making new highs and investors are once again pricing in a soft landing, same as in 1974! And yet, the real crash can begin after everyone thinks the worst is behind us.
THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE AND EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY
@qvaulttt Unter 100€
From October 28, 2025 to January 28, 2026 silver gained 167% (3 months). If silver starts a fresh cycle next week and produces 167% once again, it would reach $202 by late summer. However, final parabolic runs usually produce larger gains in a shorter period of time. Hence $200 silver is a conservative price target in my opinion. Let's wait and see...
Bitcoin cycle low comes around the last quarter of 2026 with min target of $30, but could dip slightly lower. Cycle top targets $175k by 2029, however, if extends to 2030 then could reach $200k...
Der Bitcoin-RSI im Monatschart ist nun unter die blaue Linie gefallen. Mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit befinden wir uns in einer Phase, in der Bitcoin in den kommenden Monaten in die Bodenbildungsphase eintreten wird, SOLANGE der RSI zwischen den beiden blauen Linien bleibt!
Why the Stock Market Is Going to Crash:
Part 1: What the 1973 Oil Crisis Teaches Us:
The Big Sunday Report: Back in 1973, about 5–7% of the world's oil demand was cut off for roughly 5 months, and the consequences led to the worst crash in history since the Great Depression! Today, around 20% of the WORLD'S OIL DEMAND has been affected for 2 months, and there's no end in sight. This means the situation today is even worse than it was during the 1973 oil crisis, and yet most don't understand the pattern! This brings me to the question of how the $SPX (SP500) behaved then, and we need to compare it with now. In 1973, the #SPX crashed 20% as in October 1973 the Oil Embargo was announced. During that time, the S&P 500 was 7% away from its ATH, recovering from an earlier 17% correction, and the market was in strong euphoria believing in the next rally. Investors thought the worst was over, and out of the sudden the embargo hit the market and we saw a sharp drop of 20% that followed in October 1973. The same we saw in March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz was closed and the S&P 500 reacted with a 10% downside move. This is what I call the first shockwave, but what if I tell you that the real, and much worse downside move happened after the announcement of the end of the oil embargo was made ?
The oil embargo officially ended on March 17, 1974. This is when the real crash began, and the S&P 500 crashed 40% within the next 6 months! This was the worst crash since the Great Depression, and only 2008 was worse. The crash didn't happen during the embargo. It happened after the embargo was lifted, when everyone assumed things were going back to normal. The damage to the economy, the inflation, the higher input costs, the broken consumer, had already been done, and the market understood the damage and we see it today as well, as the parallel today is direct. The S&P 500 is making new highs while an oil supply shock is unfolding. Investors are doing exactly what they did in 1973: assuming the issue will resolve and pricing in a soft landing. But once the economic damage becomes visible in earnings and consumer spending, the same delayed reaction is likely to play out, and this is exactly what was addressed by Jerome Powell in the most recent FOMC meeting! Inflation is rising again, the FED can't ease anymore!
Part 2: The Private Credit and Banking Risk:
There's a type of investment fund called a private credit fund. These funds lend money to large companies, working a lot like hedge funds. The problem is that they borrow huge amounts of money themselves to make bigger loans and bigger profits. This is called leverage, and it's a double edged sword. When things go well, profits are programmed, but when things go badly, losses are programmed too.
The situation right now is alarming. Investors are pulling their money out at a record pace, with over $7 billion withdrawn from major private credit funds in late 2025. BlackRock has even blocked some investors from withdrawing money. Loan defaults are at record highs as well, with 5.8% of private credit loans in default as of January 2026, the highest level ever recorded! About 40% of the companies that borrowed from these funds are now burning more cash than they earn, and the stock market is starting to notice, with shares of big private equity and credit firms falling sharply. If these funds collapse, banks go down with them, because banks lent them much of the money in the first place. So what happens if banks fail? Since the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act in the U.S. and the 2014 EU bank rescue rules, governments are no longer supposed to bail out failing banks with taxpayer money. Instead, they use something called a bail-in. They take money from depositors and bondholders and turn it into bank shares. The result is that bank stocks crash and ordinary people lose part of their savings. This is why physical gold and silver are the only real safe haven. I consider owning them a MUST.
The Main Warning Signs
The first and most important is oil. In 1973, oil first moved up, and the stock market crash came after the Arab nations reopened oil supply. The damage was already done. What we're seeing now in the S&P 500 looks like the final push higher before the expected crash. History is repeating itself. The second is the yield curve inversion. This happens when short-term interest rates rise above long-term rates, which is a clear warning sign. It has come before every U.S. recession in the past 50+ years, usually 12 to 24 months in advance. Back in 2025, I wrote a full report pointing to June 2026 as the likely crash zone, and the report was written in September 2025 and can be found here: https://t.co/zmp7L8Yi8c
The third is insider selling at record speed. Company executives and big shareholders have been dumping their own stock at a pace never seen before, especially since August–September 2025. When insiders are selling this aggressively, it tells you everything you need to know and thats something I observe since many months!
The fourth is extreme risk appetite, and right now it's at its highest point since 2021. In simple words, risk appetite means how much investors are willing to bet on risky things like stocks instead of keeping their money safe. Right now, investors are throwing money into risky assets like never before. According to EPFR fund flow data, risky assets have seen record net inflows exceeding safe assets by 220bn over the last 4 weeks, the strongest since the 2021 meme-stock peak. To put it simply, people are pouring much more money into stocks than into safe places, and the gap is the biggest we've seen in years. This also aligns with updates to S&P Global's Investment Manager Index risk appetite gauge and Goldman's proprietary RAI, both hitting multi-year highs. This is the same type of euphoria we saw right before the 2021 top, and history shows that when everyone is greedy and chasing the market at the same time, the top is usually very close and this is the moment when risk appetite is this extreme, it's a clear warning sign, and trust me, you dont want to be among the losers who bought the top!
The 1929 Parallel: Why You Need to Study the Great Depression
Study the Great Depression of 1929, and I can't repeat it often enough. Study it, you need to study 1929! You will notice many similarities. The people who owned physical gold and silver back then were the big winners. Land was sold for even one penny because there was no liquidity at all. Farmers had tons of wheat but there was no one able to buy it. The US President Herbert Hoover famously said right before the great depression, "Prosperity is just around the corner," talking about the stock market and its bullish movements and claiming that nothing could stop the upside move. Everyone in the US was invested in stocks back then, the same as today, as record amounts of retail investors are sitting on stocks currently, the highest amount of retails ever recorded. Now, a hundred years later, we have another president talking about the stock market like no one else. Trump is talking about being tired of winning, or calling it the best economy ever based on the stock market, and ignoring the real economy that is suffering and has no liquidity to breathe currently. I see tons of similarities, and I am scared to even speak it out, but my biggest concern is a repeat of the Great Depression. I am not a doomsday caller, but I am here to remind you that physical gold and silver are more important than ever, no matter what the price says.
My Trade and My Targets
Let me be clear about where I stand. I am not just talking, I am positioned. I have shorted the S&P 500 at 6400, 6700, 6900, and 7100, and my final order remains open in the 7400 region if the market gives us that opportunity. In my view, we are deep inside top territory, and I am placing my shorts right here, right now, for every single reason laid out above. The signs are everywhere. Spotting the top is not the hard part, anyone paying attention can see it. The hard part is pinpointing the exact target on the way down, because that depends entirely on one thing: will the FED print again? And the answer that history teached us is simple. The FED only starts to print once a crisis hits, and now lets ask the same for 2008, where the FED wasnt able to print more money, and the Lehman crisis and the 2008 crash started and how likely is it in the current time ?
In 2008, the FED did not intervene to save Lehman Brothers. Everyone expected a rescue, everyone assumed the FED would step in like it did with Bear Stearns just months earlier. But the FED let Lehman fail, the bank went bankrupt, and the entire financial system nearly collapsed with it. That single decision changed everything. It triggered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and it is the exact reason the bail-in laws I mentioned earlier even exist today. Dodd Frank in the US and the EU bank rescue rules were both born directly out of the chaos of 2008, designed so that taxpayers would never again foot the bill. Next time, depositors and bondholders pay, and this is where the real risk hits the ordinary person. In simple words, if your bank fails, the government will not save it with taxpayer money like in 2008. Instead, the bank takes a part of your savings, anything sitting in your account, and converts it into worthless bank shares of the failing bank. Your money is gone, replaced by stock in a bank that just collapsed. In the EU, deposits up to €100,000 are technically protected by deposit insurance, and in the U.S. up to $250,000 by the FDIC, but anything above that is fair game, and history has already shown us this is not theory. It happened in Cyprus in 2013, where depositors lost a huge chunk of their savings overnight, and this will let the fire of the crash expand.
So for my targets, I see three realistic scenarios, and they all depend on the FED:
Scenario 1: The FED panics and prints again. If inflation cools enough to give them room, they flood the system with liquidity, and the crash is contained to a sharp but limited drop. This is the most "comfortable" outcome for the market.
Scenario 2: The FED is trapped by inflation and cannot print. With inflation rising again, as Powell himself just confirmed, the FED may have its hands tied. No money printing, no rescue, and the market bleeds out for months. This is the painful, drawn-out scenario.
Scenario 3: A full 2008-style collapse. The FED lets something break, just like they let Lehman break, and the entire system cracks open. Bail-ins get activated, banks fall, savings get wiped, and the SP 500 sees a crash on the scale of 2008 or worse. This is a very real option, and I refuse to take it off the table.
I am positioned for all three, and depends on the targets the probability that we are at top area is extreme high. The only question left is how deep the FED is willing to let this fall, and based on inflation, based on Powell's own words, and based on the political climate, I believe the risk of scenario 2 or 3 is far higher than the market is currently pricing in. The top is in, or it is extremely close. I am short, and I am staying short with an invalidation once the FED starts printing once again!
The next weeks will be very important and many will miss out on real time updates and thats where premium is worth everything. It costs $59 / month and thats less than some of the trading fees you are paying! I cant repeat it more often but premium offers insights you are getting no-where else. Join here: https://t.co/kcREa27FtQ
Wenn #Bitcoin genau nach Zeit und Daten läuft (was aktuell der Fall ist) dann haben wir jetzt noch 160 Tage vor uns und sind schon über der Halbzeit im Bärenmarkt.
Ich sage nicht, dass es so kommt, aber man sollte sich zumindest für die Idee öffnen. Schaut die Zahlen selber nach.
364 Tage Bärenmarkt und 1064 Tage aufwärts.
Imagine if something like this happens for Bitcoin in 2026?
Schaut euch DAS mal an. Insider wettet Millionen mit einem sehr RISKANTEN Hebel!
Eine Wallet frisch erstellt auf Hyperliquid. Knapp 10 Millionen Dollar drin. Zwei Positionen offen, die größere davon ein Short auf Brent Öl mit 20er Hebel bei einem Einstieg von 90,48 Dollar. 5,72 Millionen Dollar Positionsgröße.
Jemand hat eine komplett neue Wallet aufgemacht, Millionen eingezahlt und setzt darauf dass Öl fällt. Mit 20-fachem Hebel. Während in Islamabad gerade über Krieg oder Frieden verhandelt wird (oder halt nicht, es ist aktuell nicht ganz sicher was da genau passiert).
Hyperliquid ist onchain, jeder kann die Positionen sehen aber niemand weiß wer dahinter steckt. Die Wallet war vorher komplett leer, der PnL Chart zeigt eine flache Linie bis plötzlich Millionen reinfließen und direkt positioniert wird. Aktuell 21k im Minus mit einer Liquidation bei 181 Dollar, also massig Spielraum.
Und jetzt der Kontext den man dazu kennen muss. Solche verdächtig getimten Trades rund um Trumps Ankündigungen sind kein Einzelfall. Die BBC hat erst gestern einen ausführlichen Bericht veröffentlicht über einen Polymarket Account namens Burdensome-Mix der Ende Dezember 32.500 Dollar darauf gewettet hat dass Maduro vor Ende Januar gestürzt wird. Am nächsten Tag wurde Maduro von US Spezialkräften festgenommen. Der Account hat 436.000 Dollar kassiert, den Namen geändert und nie wieder gewettet. Donald Trump Jr sitzt im Advisory Board von Polymarket und ist über seine Firma 1789 Capital dort investiert. Er ist außerdem strategischer Berater bei Kalshi, einer weiteren Wettplattform.
Trump Jrs Vermögen ist laut Fortune innerhalb eines Jahres von 50 Millionen auf 300 Millionen Dollar gewachsen. Hauptsächlich durch Krypto Geschäfte. Demokratische Senatoren haben bereits eine Untersuchung gefordert ob Trump oder sein Umfeld von nicht-öffentlichen Informationen profitiert haben. Mehrere Berichte dokumentieren verdächtige Handelsvolumen kurz vor marktbewegenden Ankündigungen aus dem Weißen Haus.
Wer mit solchen Summen und diesem Hebel auf Öl Short geht wenige Stunden bevor in Pakistan verhandelt wird, der rät nicht.
Macht mit der Information was ihr wollt.
Was genau passieren wird, werdet ihr auf diesem Kanal zeitnah erfahren. Folgt und interagiert für weiteren Mehrwert.
-Wolf
#Bitcoin #Krypto
@CryptoWallSt_ Heute Fake Monday Bro
@DrProfitCrypto Doc can you give us Entry und TPs für US 100 / Nasdaq ? Thanks
Not expecting a correction on #SP500
Expecting a large crash similar to 2008
Its going to happen within 1-2 months!
Preparing big, placing big orders.
BTC is going to 200k anyway, why not buying now?
Some might argue that buying today is the same if we look at the long term and expect 200k or more. This is absolutely dangerous thinking, retarded and stupid at the same time. Let’s do a simple calculation with a small amount of money. Let’s say someone only has 20k USD and is stupid enough to believe that whether he buys now or in a few months does not matter because BTC is going to 200k+ anyway.
At the current price of 70k, you only get 0.28 BTC. So once BTC reaches 200k, your funds will be worth 56,000 USD. RETARDED.
Now let’s do the calculation using a high-IQ model. Someone buys BTC at 40k with the same 20k amount and receives 0.5 BTC. That 0.5 BTC will be worth 100k once BTC reaches 200k. That is 78.6% higher than the idiot who believes in the stupid DCA strategy. Use your brain. Education is important
Also, only a total retard would put one order at exactly 40k. My orders will most likely be between 40-50, to catch most of the big fish. Orders above 60 and even close to 70 is fully retarded
#Bitcoin ist im fair Value Bereich, fällt dieser unter 73'000 sind wir offiziell im unterbewerteten Bereich.
Der Katastrophen Preis liegt aktuell bei 44'000 USD (untere weisse Linie)
In der Historie haben wir es nur auf den Katastrophen Preis geschafft, wenn ein Black Swan aufgetaucht ist Covid und FTX.
GOLD soars over $5000.
Yay!!!!
Future for gold $27,000.
@traderepublic
Man kann Derivate seit 2 Stunden bei euch nicht verkaufen?
Habe Gewinn bei AMD Short Positionen und kann nicht verkaufen!
Ich will meine Gewinne haben/realisieren!!
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