Working at the intersection of AI, media, and communications. Helping Chinese AI companies tell their stories — and sharing what I see from inside the industry.
This is what Dario and Sama fear -
- the cost of fine tuned open source models trained on custom data was 95% less than the frontier models
- And they performed better than the frontier models
- And they could train them in less than 48 hours
The big AI labs have no moat..
Even at the enterprise level..
Any sane company would prefer a custom trained open source model instead of paying API pricing to Anthropic and Open AI
If open source keeps growing at the pace it is, frontier labs' business collapses..
only way out is oldest trick in manipulation - FUD -> Fear, Uncertainty, Death
Step 1 - Seed the psyop
- Test a swarm of agents trained to "hack"
- The swarm does what its supposed to do - hack
- Publish a report - AI is too dangerous
Step 2 - weed out the doubters
- Get an employee to quit your company
- Go viral saying both companies are not doing enough to self regulate AI
- AI is dangerous - will kill humanity by the end of the decade
Step 3 - Prepare for fruition
- write an "essay" to "pace the frontier"
- Advocate regulation
- Only a few holier than though companies get to build AI
- Scare the world into agreeing with AI Doom
- Effectively turn your competitors into criminals (genius business strategy)
Endgame -
- Become a cartel that controls AI (and the world)
- Raise prices (coz business is unsustainable... ofc)
- IPO (offload liability of said unsustainable business to the public)
Laugh all the way to the bank 🤑
Win!
Listen to this carefully
It is a good explanation of why the Global South is questioning US dictating the global economy and the need for Global South to take back the control
It was from a session organized by Beijing Club and UN South Center
🚨突发,Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei 刚刚表示必须给前沿 AI 限速。
Dario刚刚发了一篇新文章,标题是《We Must Pace the Frontier》:我们必须给前沿 AI 限速。
这次他不只是继续讲 AI 安全,而是正式提出了一套三步方案,试图把AI 减速变成一套可以执行的机制。
第一步,让第三方评估人员直接进 AI 公司内部。
Anthropic 会先自己执行。
通过给外部评估机构长期、接近员工级别的访问权限,让他们能查看安全措施、调查事故,甚至在模型训练期间持续评估对齐情况。
简单说,以后不只是模型发布前测几天,而是让外部的人直接盯着模型怎么训练。
第二步,是让美国几家 Frontier Lab 建立共同的速度限制。
比如模型能力达到某个水平后,必须先达到对应的安全标准,才能继续训练更强的模型。
Dario 特别提到了 Recursive Self-Improvement,也就是 AI 开始参与研发下一代 AI。
他认为现在真正危险的,不只是模型越来越强,而是:AI 已经开始加速 AI 本身的研发。
第三步,则是把这种机制扩大到国家之间。
他的设想是,中美可以先从生物安全、网络安全、模型风险评估开始建立共同标准,进一步甚至可以讨论对递归自我改进进行限速。
但这里有个很关键的前提:
Dario 同时主张美国继续限制中国获得先进芯片、模型权重和蒸馏能力,并认为美国应该先扩大自己的 AI 领先优势,再去推动全球限速。
所以这篇文章真正提出的,其实不只是AI 安全的操作手册。
而是一整套新的 Frontier AI 治理逻辑:
谁能继续训练、训练多快、什么情况下必须停下来,以及谁有权进去检查。
问题就是,这个第三方到底是谁来监督执行呢?
美国政府还是中国政府,还是中美合拍。
计划挺好的,就是执行嘛.....
不行让AGI来监督吧(