Akshat Agarwal

• CFA L3 Candidate • Market Enthusiast • Active Investor • Passionate about markets , cinema , good content and travel !!

[Akshat Agarwal @Akshat2611]

Be Curious Not Judgmental 😉

[Akshat Agarwal @Akshat2611]

@bealwaysayu @vinodkcs79 @sriranganek Thats unfortunate
The promoter was sure of pre diwali

[Akshat Agarwal @Akshat2611]

@bealwaysayu @vinodkcs79 @sriranganek Where did they mention that ?

[Abhishek Kothari 🇮🇳 @kothariabhishek]

*Haitong India on PB Fintech: Not the End of the Road*
@policybazaar

*Proposed changes to our assumptions for PB Fintech model*:
•*Premium growth*: Core online Insurance premium growth will continue to be string at CAGR of 35% over FY26-30E
•*Take rate*: Core Online revenue take rate has been revised down to ~10% in each of FY28E-FY30E, compared with our earlier estimates of 17%-16% over the same period.
•*Discontinuation of POSP revenue and commission*: We have assumed the discontinuation of POSP revenue and commission expense from FY28E onward.
•Total Group Operating revenue: Our revised estimates imply a reduction in Total Group Operating revenue of ~50% in FY28E- FY30E, compared with the previous estimates as we have removed POSP revenue
•*Employee expenses*: We expect Employee expenses to increase from Rs25bn in FY26 to Rs37bn in FY30E implying a slower CAGR of 10.6% over FY26-30E
•*Advertisement, promotion and marketing*: We expect Advertisement, promotion and marketing expenses to be at 12.3bn in FY30E vs Rs12.1bn in FY26
•Other expenses like Payment gateway, IT, D&A increase at a CAGR of 10-16% over FY26-30E
•POSP Commission costs are reduced to nil as we have taken off the POSP business from revenue above.
•We expect Paisabazaar and Other revenue to increase at 25% CAGR over FY26-30E.
•New initiatives revenue excluding POSP is expected to increase at a CAGR of 26% over FY26-30E

Profitability: Following the above revisions, our *PAT estimate for FY28, FY29, FY30 comes out to be Rs8bn, Rs16bn and Rs25bn. Thus, we see PAT for FY30E to be 16% lower at Rs25bn vs earlier FY30 guidance of Rs30bn*.

*Key take away from PB Fintech managements call on 24th Sep’26*:
•The company identified multiple cost rationalisation levers, including reducing digital marketing, brand spend, slowing hiring, and improving contact center productivity, while clearly stating there are no plans for mass layoffs
•Management expects lower commissions could reduce customer pricing, potentially driving 15–20% volume recovery through higher policy sales if insurers pass on the savings
•The company is actively pushing for an MGA (Managing General Agent) framework, which would allow it to participate in underwriting, claims management, and risk sharing, helping it earn for higher-quality business rather than only distribution
•As per the mgmt. the POSP business model is expected to become more challenging under the draft proposal, although management believes final economics will depend on regulatory clarifications
•For FY27 there will be no financial impact as implementation is proposed only from FY28 after the consultation process

*Valuation and risks*: We value PB Fintech using a DCF based approach where we decrease our Net profit for FY28, FY29 and FY30 by 37%, 13% and 4% respectively. This results in decrease in our TP to Rs1,560 from Rs2,080. The main risk to our rating is if the company is unable to reduce costs from FY27-30 as we have built. In addition, new platforms like Bima Sugam can also cause some disruption.

[The Loggical Investor @logical_traderr]

https://t.co/RWck6XBbZr

[Akshat Agarwal @Akshat2611]

@abhishekcjain How to register?

[Ameya @Finstor85]

https://t.co/bPzRt5rtzr

[Akshat Agarwal @Akshat2611]

@tr0685 @palkakhurana There is also difference between stupidity and investing
The new promoter came 2025 jan
And anybody would take 2-3 qtrs to stabilise a new company

[Akshat Agarwal @Akshat2611]

Embassy promoters are crazy
Subscribing co warrants for a price 70% above cmp !!!

Warrants at 111
Cmp - 66

#EMBDL

[Akshat Agarwal @Akshat2611]

@tr0685 @palkakhurana Thats the difference between a trader and a investor

[Sekhar @LearningEleven]

Timepass talk on Sunday

1. The Dye Is Cast: Why China's Intermediate Crisis Is a Hidden Play for Indian Chemicals

A) What triggered the supply-led rally

The rally in dye intermediates was set off by a perfect storm of environmental crackdowns, accidental shutdowns, and geopolitical cost shocks. On the regulatory front, China’s environmental authorities have been shutting down non-compliant chemical parks and small producers, H-acid production, for instance, generates highly polluted wastewater that is expensive to treat, so backward capacity continues to be eliminated.

The most acute trigger was the March 19, 2026 explosion at Inner Mongolia Liyuan Technology’s nitration workshop, which killed two workers and knocked out a 4,500-ton-per-year H-acid line at a time when total domestic effective H-acid capacity was already below 60,000 tons.

Separately, Jihua Group’s H-acid facility had been suspended for years because its chemical park was shut down on environmental grounds and management said restarting would be unprofitable.

Layer on top of that the 2026 Hormuz crisis, which sent crude oil up ~55% and benzene up ~20%, and the fact that Beijing no longer approves new nitration or reduction capacity, and you have a market with no spare supply and no quick fixes.

B) Impact on pricing

With supply shrinking and inventories already exhausted, prices across the chain exploded. Reducing agents, which account for 20–30% of disperse dye costs, surged from roughly ¥25,000/ton at year-end 2025 to ¥70,000–100,000/ton by March 2026, a near-quadrupling in two months.

H-acid jumped from around ¥25,000/ton to ¥65,000–70,000/ton by mid-April.

Disperse Black dye prices rose from roughly ¥17,000/ton to over ¥21,000/ton, with leaders like Zhejiang Longsheng and Runtu issuing multiple price-hike notices of ¥2,000–5,000/ton.

Because dyes represent only 1–3% of textile production costs, downstream mills could absorb the increases, allowing the price transmission to stick.

C) Listed Indian companies that could benefit

Indian dye and intermediate makers with backward integration stand to gain from both higher global intermediate prices and potential import substitution.

Bodal Chemicals is the clearest beneficiary, it is one of India’s largest manufacturers and exporters of dye intermediates, with significant H-acid (7,200 TPA) and vinyl sulphone (16,500 TPA) capacity, and it exports to China, Europe, and Asia.

Kiri Industries is another, it has full backward integration from basic chemicals to finished reactive dyes and manufactures vinyl sulphone intermediates, giving it exposure to the same tight supply dynamics.

Atul Ltd also merits attention as a listed player with dye intermediate operations alongside its vat and sulphur dye businesses.

Jaysynth Orgochem manufactures dye intermediates for textiles and coatings and exports to 50+ countries, positioning it to capture rerouted demand.

D) Why Ultramarine Pigments is not a beneficiary

Ultramarine & Pigments operates in an entirely different chemistry and end-market ecosystem. The company is a top-3 global producer of inorganic Ultramarine Blue and Violet pigments. Its pigments go into plastics, paints, inks, cosmetics, and laundry applications, not textile dyeing.

The current rally is driven by organic dye intermediates such as H-acid, reducing agents, and vinyl sulphone, which feed into reactive, disperse, and vat dyes for textiles. Ultramarine Pigments has zero exposure to organic dye intermediates or textile dyes, so the China supply shock and resulting price surge simply do not flow through its business.

2. TD Power Systems

Capital Raise & Siemens Energy Agreement

Fundraise Details: TD Power is pursuing a QIP/preferential fundraise, targeting roughly ₹500 crore (slightly lower than the maximum enabling resolution).

Siemens Energy Contract: The primary driver for the capital raise is a major build-to-print partnership signed with Siemens Energy Inc..

TDPS will manufacture large-capacity generators (>150 MW) for export to the US market and globally.
The partnership gives TDPS entry into the high-capacity generator market segment (>150 MW), expanding beyond its legacy product envelope.

Execution Timeline: Construction of a brand-new, dedicated manufacturing facility will take ~2 years, targeted for completion around June/July 2028. Production ramp-up will follow over the subsequent year, with revenue impact materializing around CY2030.

Long-Term Potential & Revenue Horizon

Product Mix Transition: Currently, ~95% of TDPS’s order book is comprised of sub-60 MW generators, with only a small portion in the 60–100 MW range. TDPS is aggressively focusing on growing its 60–100 MW footprint, as that addressable market is equivalent in size to the sub-60 MW market.

Peak Revenue Potential: Backed by historical sales-to-investment ratios and the new plant, total company revenue potential could approach ~₹5,000 crore around CY2030 (up from current levels).

Short-Term Guidance & Demand Environment

FY27 Guidance: Confirmed full-year FY27 revenue guidance of ₹2,700 crore, with high confidence in hitting or exceeding the target. Potential guidance revisions will be reassessed during the Q2 earnings call in November.

Margin Guidance: Re-iterated a sustainable EBITDA margin range of 18% to 19%. Higher operational leverage could offer upside, but management prefers to maintain conservative guidance.

Broad-Based Demand: Inflows are driven across diverse verticals including data center backup power, grid stabilization, traditional power generation, oil & gas, and waste-heat recovery.

OEM Expansion: Key OEM customers are currently doubling or tripling their gas engine/turbine production capacity, which will translate into higher order volumes for TDPS through CY2027–CY2029.

3. Centum Electronics

Centum Electronics designs and makes the specialized electronic brains (ESDM) and control systems that run fighter jets, space satellites, and missiles. They sell these high-precision circuit boards and sensors to major aerospace companies and government space agencies who need to make sure their equipment works perfectly in extreme conditions where failure is not an option. These electronic systems sit at the core of critical applications like advanced radar systems, military communication networks, and onboard controllers for space payloads.

How they make money?

A. Build-to-Specification (BTS): ~28% of Revenue

BTS designs and manufactures custom electronic systems for defence, aerospace, and space, including radar, electronic warfare and space payloads. Recent wins include the ₹570 crore lifecycle AESA radar program for HAL’s UHM platform and a ₹30+ crore space debris tracking radar.

It is a higher-margin business (~20% EBITDA), but has longer execution cycles of around 2–2.5 years, making it a strategically important, albeit smaller, part of the business.

B. Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS): ~72% of Revenue

EMS provides contract manufacturing across industrial electronics, electrification, grid automation, semiconductor equipment and defence. A key anchor customer is a leading semiconductor equipment OEM, where Centum is ramping up production.

EMS is a lower-margin business (~9–11% EBITDA) but offers more recurring, annuity-like revenue with shorter 6–9 month order cycles, providing better revenue visibility and scalability.

Why are we talking about it?

In July 2026, the company completed a major corporate cleanup by transitioning its loss-making European engineering services subsidiaries into judicial liquidation, permanently stopping a multi-year cash burn. This leaves a lean, highly profitable Indian core that is scaling rapidly.

Beyond defense and space, Centum is building a high-precision semiconductor equipment vertical that supplies global chip-tool makers with precision assembly components, targeting an annual sales run-rate of thirty million dollars by 2028. This vertical leverages their high-reliability manufacturing capabilities and acts as a commercial hedge against lumpy government defense procurement cycles, representing an early-stage capability bet that is scaling from a tiny base.

Despite a relatively weak Q1, management remains confident of delivering 25% revenue growth for the full year FY27. The company also expects to improve its EBITDA margin to above 13%, compared with 12.5% in the previous year, while exports are expected to contribute 50–55% of total revenue.

4. TVS Supply Chain Solutions

What They Do
TVS Supply Chain Solutions (TVS SCS) is an asset-light, tech-enabled logistics provider that operates globally across two main segments: Integrated Supply Chain Solutions (ISCS) and Global Forwarding Solutions (GFS). Their services span the entire supply chain lifecycle, managing everything from raw material sourcing, in-plant manufacturing support, and finished goods warehousing, to international air and ocean freight forwarding.

How They Make Money
The company generates the bulk of its revenue, roughly 75%, through sticky, multi-year, fee-for-service contracts within its ISCS segment. The remainder comes from the GFS segment via transaction-based fees that fluctuate with global freight volumes and cargo rates. By operating an asset-light model where they lease rather than purchase warehouses, TVS SCS is able to optimize operating expenses while passing variable costs onto their diverse client base, securing predictable and recurring cash flows.

Why are we talking about it?

Scalable Asset-Light Model with Sticky Enterprise Relationships: Operating an asset-light model via long-term leased infrastructure enables high capital flexibility and strong return metrics. Serving over 7,100 active clients, including 100 Fortune Global 500 accounts, TVS SCS retains deep customer stickiness through multi-year contracts (averaging 4–7+ years), ensuring predictable recurring revenue.

Record Order Pipeline & Revenue Conversion Visibility: Backlogged visibility remains exceptionally strong, driven by an all-time high in quarterly new business wins (₹543 Cr in Q1 FY27) and an active commercial pipeline exceeding ₹7,500 Cr. Historical conversion rates of 20–25% provide direct multi-year revenue growth visibility.

Strategic Growth Catalysts via M&A and Defense JV: Inorganic expansions, such as the ₹88 Cr acquisition of Swamy & Sons 3PL to deepen FMCG warehousing in Southern India and the defense/aerospace JV with Italy’s ALA Group, allow TVS SCS to tap into high-margin, entry-barrier sectors targeted to contribute ₹2,000 Cr in revenue over five years.

Game-Changing Alliance & Equity Partnership with Sankyu Inc.: The August 2026 MoU with Japan’s Sankyu Inc., complemented by Sankyu taking a 0.5% equity stake, merges TVS SCS's contract logistics with Sankyu’s complex plant engineering and heavy equipment installation capabilities. This directly positions TVS SCS to capture high-value supply chain mandates from 1,400+ Japanese OEMs expanding in India while unlocking future expansion across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.

5. Travel Food Services Limited

Travel Food Services Limited is India’s largest travel Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) and airport lounge operator.

The company operates a network of 580 QSR outlets and lounges across 21 airports in India, Malaysia, and Hong Kong, alongside an expanding presence in highway travel plazas.

TFS generates revenue through three primary channels: Travel QSR Sales by operating an extensive portfolio of 153 in-house, regional, and international food and beverage (F&B) brands; Lounge Operations, which monetizes premium lounge access through partnerships with major banks and credit card networks; and Airport Passenger Services, which generates fees through personalized offerings under its "Elite Assist" brand, such as meet-and-greet, porter, baby pram, and wheelchair facilities.

TFS holds a ~26% market share in Indian airport travel QSR and a ~45% market share in airport lounges.

Balance Sheet: Net debt-free balance sheet with robust cash reserves (~₹970 Cr) supporting organic capex.

Network & Capacity Expansion: Over 50 new units are actively under development, with ~90 units mobilized over the last 12 months ramping up to full revenue potential over a 12–18 month horizon.

Growth is anchored to the commission of major new hubs (e.g., Noida International Airport, Navi Mumbai Airport, and Bhogapuram) alongside existing expansion projects at major metro airports.

EBITDA Margins: Sustainable EBITDA margins targeted at 38%–39%. Near-term margin compression during quarters with aggressive store mobilization is offset as stores reach maturity.

International Expansion: Expansion beyond India into high-density international hubs across APAC and the Middle East (including setups in Hong Kong, Malaysia, Dubai, and Indonesia).

Highway & Wayside Amenities (WSAs): Medium- to long-term diversification into highway travel plazas leveraging India's expanding national expressway infrastructure.

Challenges: Operational costs, specifically employee expenses, rose as the company staffed up for the Noida and Cochin airport ramp-ups. LFL growth was muted at 0.8% system-wide but reached 7% in markets not impacted by infrastructure shifts. Management is focusing on menu innovation and premiumization to offset the lack of volume growth in passenger numbers.

Key Risk
Airport & Concession Concentration: ~90%+ of revenues are concentrated across top airports; upcoming major concession renewals represent potential re-bidding risks or fee restructurings.

That's all for this edition. Have a great Sunday!

Disclaimer: None or buy or sell recommendations. This publicly available information is shared for learning and education purposes.

[Sandeep Mall @SandeepMall]

If you love holidays in nature, these are four of my best experiences so far:
Namibia
Iceland
Switzerland
New Zealand

Still on my wish list:
Scotland, Mongolia, Canada and Norway.

[Rahul Mathur @Rahul_J_Mathur]

Apple booked 50 business class seats daily for SFO → Shanghai on United in the pre-COVID 19 era

They were spending ~$35m per annum to get manufacturing design engineering (MDE) teams from Cupertino to supervise the manufacturing engine in China.

They flew everyone from process engineers to designers to operations managers to reliability engineers on-site to help ramp up production of various Apple devices.

In fact, United began flying SFO → Chengdu daily from 2015 because Apple guaranteed it would take almost all of the 36 business class seats on that flight. Chengdu is where 50% of the world’s iPads are made!

Back in 2019, Apple was United’s largest corporate account. Apple was spending ~$150m per annum with United 🤯

Apple began manufacturing efforts in China in 1997 when Jobs came back into power. Apple’s peak CAPEX in China was ~$55bn per annum.

The scale of Apple’s supply chain in China insane: There are 1.4 million employed on production lines by Apple’s manufacturing partners like Foxxconn!

Source for the above: Patrick McGee’s book “Apple in China” and Dan Wang’s “Breakneck”. I’ve read both these year & they provide a fascinating POV into China’s manufacturing prowess.

[Tanmay 🇮🇳 @Tanmay_31_]

The Hottest IPO of 2026!

A single platform to ride the play of each and every hot sector

Tempsens Instruments Limited IPO

Detailed Analysis

Applying For Mammoth Listing Gains And Long-term (View To Make An Allocation in the Long-term Portfolio)

Highlights of the Issue :

Date : 20-24 August
Price Band : 285-300

Size : 650 Crore
Fresh - 95 Crore
OFS - 555 Crore

M.cap : 2,515 Crore

Objects Of The Issue :

▪︎ Repayment Of Debt - 55 Cr

▪︎ Funding Capex - 18 Cr

▪︎ GCP - 22 Cr

Key Pointers :

▪︎ Tempsens is a Globally leading Thermal Sensing, Advanved Electrical heating and Specialised Cable Solutions Provider

▪︎ It is the largest manufacturer of contact and non-contact temperature sensors in India with a market share of ~10.5% in the
temperature sensor segment, It is the only Indian manufacturer of non-contact temperature sensors, holding ~21.3% market share

▪︎ Tempsens' Product portfolio includes :

– Thermal Sensing Solutions [Contact & Non-contact] (44% Rev) -

• Thermocouples
• Resistance Temperature Detector (RTD)
• Infrared Pyrometer
• Online Thermal Imager
• Furnace Monitoring Camera
• Temperature & Pressure Gauge
• Temperature Calibrator
• Level Switch and Gauge
• Diaphragm Seals
• Fiber Optic Temperature Sensor
• Heat Flux Sensor

– Electrical Heating Solutions (21% Rev) -

• Immersion Heater
• Process Heater
• Cartridge Heater
• Band Heater
• Coil Heater
• Floor Heating Mats
• Laboratory Electrical Furnaces
• Process Electrical Furnaces

– Specialised Cable Solutions(35% Rev) -

• LV Control Cable
• LV Power Cable
• Instrumentation Cable
• Heat Trace Cable
• Thermocouple and RTD Cable
• Mineral Insulated Metal Sheath Cable
• Nickel Alloy Conductors

▪︎ Tempens recently added three new, super-critical and High-margin products namely, Fibre Optic Temperature Sensor,
Aerospace Grade Cables, Catalyst Bed Heaters for Space applications

▪︎ The Company is the Domestic Monopoly in products like fibre optic temperature sensors, thermal profiling systems, pyrometers, and online thermal imagers; the company is in advanced stages to produce medium-voltage heaters

▪︎ It's Products find applications across sectors like Power, Metal, Petrochemical, Defence, Nuclear, Glass, Plastics, Capital goods manufacturing, Data Centres, Space applications, Chemicals, Marine Vessels, Semiconductor Manufacturing, Advanced Materials, Instrumentation, Etc.

▪︎ Tempsens operates 15 Manufacturing Facilities, out of which 10 are located in Udaipur and one each in UAE, Korea, Indonesia, Germany and Poland

▪︎ The Company is looking to add additional capacities to match robust demand and growth ahead and Deleverage it's books

Financials and Personal Assumptions :
(*In Crores)

FY24
Revenue : 275
EBITDA : 61
PAT : 41

FY25
Revenue : 378.5
EBITDA : 97.3
PAT : 62.6

FY26
Revenue : 445
EBITDA : 113.2
PAT : 71.1

FY27E
Revenue : 560
EBITDA : 148
PAT : 95

FY28E
Revenue : 800
EBITDA : 220
PAT : 145

Valuing Tempsens at 35× FY28E EV/EBITDA, Anticipated Value Comes At 945, Implying An Upside Of 215%

This is a Must Must Apply

"Negative Dhundhne se Nahi Mila"

Its A Pure-play Manufacturing play with High-margin sticky MRO Revenue which has a direct play in the High-growth and Hot segments like Aerospace and Defence, Space, Semiconductor, Power, Data Centres, Cryogenics, Etc.

Expecting super crazy developments in this Post-listing

The only company with which I can compare this is MTAR (different business but similar rather better positioning)

One of the Finest IPOs in the Indian Markets, extremely Bullish on this one

Will grab even if Lists 120-130%,
Feel markets will value this at 40× FY28E EV/EBITDA

Extremely Dirt Cheap Valuations!

Great job by WhiteOak for making an attractive valuation benchmark in the Pre-IPO, great job by the Bankers and promotes as well

This one is going to be targeted by every MF, DII, and even FIIs and Retailers!

Just A Personal View, Only For Educational Purposes

[Akshat Agarwal @Akshat2611]

@tr0685 @palkakhurana Youre clearly not aware of the new promoter’s pedigree

[Akshat Agarwal @Akshat2611]

Reminder to myself

[Akshat Agarwal @Akshat2611]

@palkakhurana Hello sir
107 is a little high cost of acquisition but Embassy’s future is rock solid
It has great corporate mgmt and also Q2 should be a very good quarter for the company as all its big launches are in September
The company should do good
Only risk is the real estate cycle

[Akshat Agarwal @Akshat2611]

I think that behavior gives us a good screening tool to take companies who are anyways transparent and fair in their approach and can help in actually forming a very good bucket that consists of mgmt both ethically aligned as well as good fundamentally is what I feel
We cant expect everyone to be fair but can use our judgement to only associate with the one’s that are already doing that

[Akshat Agarwal @Akshat2611]

@Karthik287 So so so impressed by the mgmt
No one ever expected them to do so
Have completely increased my view on them

[Akshat Agarwal @Akshat2611]

@a4anandk4u Dear sir
By Crazy i mean = CRAZY GOOD