@manujosephsan wrote that revolutions are rarely led by the very bottom, but by the rung just below the elites. Indian independence,French Revolution. No one gets this segmentation better than the BJP: bottom gets benefits/mandirs. Middle discusses & despises #delhigymkhana
In new interview Jensen Huang has just shut down the idea that AI is going to replace the software industry.
He says "it is the most illogical idea in the world. And time will prove itself."
Software = Tools
And AI will always rely on those tools
1. Shift from volume-based billing to goal/outcome-based monetization(the startup way!)
2. India becomes 'IRL training ground' + HIL-AI based operations
3. Shift from 'acquired/proprietary know-how' to 'general smartness across domains for free' : More D2C entrepreneurs/product
The all-time highs for IT services stocks are never coming back. And the reason has nothing to do with rate cycles or client spending slowdowns. The fundamental unit of value these companies sell, the billable human hour, is being automated away in real time.
The IT services model is facing extinction (not disruption). These companies all sell one thing: human hours billed at arbitrage rates. Indian engineer costs $15-40/hour, billed to clients at $50-150/hour depending on offshore versus onsite. That spread built over $500 billion in combined market cap across TCS, Infosys, Wipro, Accenture, and Cognizant. AI is compressing that spread in real time.
A typical IT services deal has 500 developers maintaining legacy code at $50/hour blended rate, which works out to around $50 million annually per contract. Claude, Cursor, and Copilot are already writing 46% of the code for developers who use them, and acceptance rates have climbed to over 30% now. GitHub reports developers complete tasks 55% faster with Copilot. That’s not five years out but happening today across millions of users.
The existential problem is that IT services companies can’t adopt AI to save themselves because their entire revenue model is headcount times billing rate. Every AI efficiency gain they deploy reduces billable hours. They’re structurally incapable of benefiting from the technology replacing them.
The Indian IT-BPM sector employs millions of people and these aren’t coal miners you can retrain. These are the retrained people. Software was supposed to be the safe career but now AI writes better code than a three-year associate, debugs faster than a senior engineer, and documents code that humans never would have bothered with.
TCS and Infosys currently trade at 20-25x earnings, down from 35-40x in 2021. The market has already started repricing these as ex-growth. Every quarter these companies issue guidance about “AI-first transformation” and “generative AI practices” but it seems like a funeral home is advertising coffin sales as a growth vertical.
IT services is the sector AI was specifically designed to replace.
@championswimmer Seems like they haven’t changed much.
Once their head of ops called me and scoffed on phone and was giving me analogy from swiggy zomato😭
Since then I resorted to my cute travel agent in JP Nagara 🤣 no tech, send pdfs on email get things done
Delivering on time is being seen as going overboard!
That alone explains our collective ethics around time as a nation, and why ‘Indian time’ phrase exists.
Roads,signals,streets,drains,manholes need a fixing. Not @letsblinkit rider travelling at 15kmph or @deepigoyal!
@_groww@lkeshre when i change the time period, the change in that time period should also move. I have made time period to 5Y but the delta is still shown for 1D.