🅰️kwasi Cobby

Invest with money you are willing to lose. Passionate about control systems design. If you can't explain something in simple terms, you don't even understand it

[C🅰️tSE @CatSE___ApeX___]

Come along for a deep dive in reading between the lines. And in the documents not made public.

We’ll be discussing SDA futures program. And how $ASTS is affected.

🐈‍⬛ CatSE: ”The smoking gun of a upcoming Golden Dome contract in plain sight”

1/n

[Jamie Enevsta @jamie_envesta]

One of the things that fascinates me about $ASTS isn’t actually the satellites themselves. It’s the economics behind the business. Management believes that 90 satellites could provide 24/7 global coverage. Think about that for a second.

Today, the world has roughly 5.4M cell towers. Yet despite all that infrastructure, there are still billions of people with little or no mobile broadband coverage, and vast areas of the planet remain difficult or uneconomical to serve. Imagine a small town out in America, Russia, Brazil, Africa, there is no cell tower companies in the world that are going to spend tens of millions in capex to provide coverage for a handful of people. So how are these people ever going to get online? Like ever? Well, AST is attempting to solve that with just 90 satellites.

Now think about it from the perspective of a MNO (mobile network operator) like AT&T, Vodafone or Verizon. Of which all three have already signed MOU agreements with AST. In fact between them they have actually invested about $250M into AST to help them get this working. Now, If you want to improve coverage in a remote village, mountain range, desert, offshore location or sparsely populated rural area, you normally need to spend billions on building and maintaining more towers.

With satellite connectivity, much of that capex heavy infrastructure could potentially be avoided. But what gets my attention besides the fantastic product is the business model.

Most companies spend a fortune acquiring customers. Marketing. Advertising. Sales teams. Retail stores. Promotions. AST doesn’t have to do any of that. Instead, they’ve partnered with mobile network operators that already serve more than 3 billion subscribers worldwide. Those operators handle the customer relationship, billing and distribution. AST is simply the middle man that provides the connectivity from space.

So if the service performs as expected and consumers are willing to pay a few extra quid a month for coverage in places where they currently have none, AST gains access to neigh on half the world, with an existing customer base held by the MNOs without the traditional customer acquisition costs. Does anyone know of a model that compares? I certainly don’t.

So what happens when the service goes live and they essentially, overnight open up the floodgates to 3B customers? If just 5% of them opted for a $5 per month (this is an conservative estimate, no figures have been released) satellite connectivity add-on, that’s 150 million users and roughly $9B in annual revenue. At the same price to sales multiple as their competitor Starlink (90x), they would be trading at $810B or $2,600 per share. However, Starlink is super overvalued and it comes with a Elon premium, of which AST will never have. So if we more realistic and conservative multiple of say 20x sales, that gives us $180B MC or $580 per share. At 80% margins as guided for by management, that would put AST at 25x price to earnings, which for a company that will be putting up triple digit growth I think is more than reasonable. Just my opinion, but based on the above I would not be suprised to see ASTS 5x over the next 5 years.

Not a prediction by any means, just an illustration of how large the opportunity could be if the service gains even a tiny slice of adoption.

There’s obviously huge execution risk attached as they still need to deploy the network and prove the economics at scale, and ultimately if they cannot do that before running out of money they will either go bankrupt, or dilute.

But if they succeed, this could end up being one of the most capital efficient and scalable business models I think I have ever come across.

[🅰️kwasi Cobby @AkwasiCobby]

@addojunr Jordan out, Sibo and Partey in the middle. We were outplayed throughout, the energy was very low

[REDRUM 🅰️ @redrum_2001]

$ASTS - Bluebirds are about to get famous.

TV advert from the UK.

"The Nation’s biggest network keeps getting better | Vodafone UK"

[🅰️kwasi Cobby @AkwasiCobby]

@FcbShedy I respect you as a great player @didierdrogba but it seems you have no knowledge of what is going on in South Africa, it has nothing to do with politics

[🅰️kwasi Cobby @AkwasiCobby]

@Vxebo_ You know without the 'white' what you are showing will be just a dream. Even with the white, we know where most of you live, so don't patronize yourself. Fix your 'neighborhood' before telling anyone else to fix their country. We know where the 'whites' live so don't act ...

[🅰️kwasi Cobby @AkwasiCobby]

@IamMzilikazi Legend says the lion is still running

[🅰️kwasi Cobby @AkwasiCobby]

@elonmusk Grok answers have an uncanny resemblance to your style of writing. Are you relatives?

[Mike Gannotti @MichaelGannotti]

Do yourself a favor make your IT admin enable you for Frontier in Microsoft 365 and as soon as it’s available… get Scout!! Trust me on this. Scout is going to be not only your go to for AI. Scout will become your go to for … everything! @Microsoft @Microsoft365

[Anatoli Kopadze @AnatoliKopadze]

https://t.co/AAWIZD1pNL

[🅰️kwasi Cobby @AkwasiCobby]

@Msaniluv The chair cut off his mic because he was spilling the beans too much. Politrickians. A country called Ghana

[🅰️kwasi Cobby @AkwasiCobby]

@JackKuhr Changing of the baton. Just sit on the sideline, the rocket will be far away from your reach. Forward Future Sales/Revenue is the game

[🅰️kwasi Cobby @AkwasiCobby]

@_GhChronicles The stock market is where generational wealth is built

[🅰️kwasi Cobby @AkwasiCobby]

@JoyNewsOnTV If you can’t find anything with the NPP maybe start with the NDC prosecution

[🅰️kwasi Cobby @AkwasiCobby]

@NgolibaAbdul Politics in Ghana is all about personal gains and interest. Well orchestrated theatrics

[🅰️kwasi Cobby @AkwasiCobby]

@JoyNewsOnTV Why are the PAC team only enforcing the min wage, they should urge them to consider a living wage and probably give them between 1200 to 1500 per month. How can anyone with a family survive on 8 Cedis at day

[🅰️kwasi Cobby @AkwasiCobby]

@xghana_ This gentleman really broke it down very clearly. This is why my mom is only making less than 2k after teaching for many years. What is his name

[AST SpaceMobile @AST_SpaceMobile]

A BlueBird convoy is officially underway.

Two BlueBirds are already making their way to Cape Canaveral, with the third close behind.

Next stop: the launch pad.  🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀

Built in Texas. Broadband from space. Designed to connect directly to everyday smartphones.🌎📶📱

#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds

[🅰️kwasi Cobby @AkwasiCobby]

@NASAArtemis @NASAArtemis what happened to the service module after the seperation

[Rocket Lab @RocketLab]

The 1,000th Rutherford engine has rolled off the production line🎉The world's first 3D printed, battery-powered rocket engine is now one of the most manufactured rocket engines on Earth.  

Congratulations to the production and development teams behind Rutherford. You make the most complex engineering and manufacturing feats look easy.