Alaric's Picks

Equity Analyst, Not Advisor | Actionable equity deep-dives from around the world on free Substack.
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[Alaric's Picks @AlaricsPicks]

What do you call a company that specializes in sofas and carpets? Sofa Carpet Specialist 🤓

This small U.K retailer trades at 80% net cash, has friendly shareholder return policies of over 8% per year, and great ROIC/ROE/FCF generation.

🧵Here's $scs.l:

https://t.co/zeFFrH900e

[Alaric's Picks @AlaricsPicks]

@ClarkSquareCap Thank you!

[Alaric's Picks @AlaricsPicks]

Hi everyone,

Just a heads up that I've recently started a job as a research analyst at a hedge fund!

For compliance reasons however, I will no longer comment on individual securities.

Full letter sent to Substack subscribers:

https://t.co/sqvOA2myal

[Alaric's Picks @AlaricsPicks]

My DCF shows a 723p share value, close to the buyout rumor stemming from this FT Alphaville article (sources in the article are poor).
https://t.co/GAZaIovBZy

But that is if all goes well.

ASOS is still interesting, but the r/r is far from as compelling as 3 months ago.

$ASC.L

[Alaric's Picks @AlaricsPicks]

ASOS $ASC.L reported earnings a couple of weeks ago.
The stock price is down 46% since.

What happened? The story in 12 months has shifted from growth, to turnaround, to survival.

Problems now lie in:
- 🔻Dilution
- 💸Debt
$ASC.L

[Alaric's Picks @AlaricsPicks]

Of course, ASOS can and likely will undertake more debt to pay off the current one.
But it will have little leeway to expand or make any errors, and any more macro problems will compound.

The dilution risk is also very real, with two c.20% dilution events in 3 years now.

$ASC.L

[Alaric's Picks @AlaricsPicks]

@RocketLab bought all this for essentially a $4.5m CAPEX cash outflow this Q.

S-92A heli likely held for sale at $11.6m (Q1 ER)
Paid $16.1m for this 144,000 sq ft @VirginOrbit facility and related machinery, next to its own facility.

Nice deal (depending on original heli cost)

[Alaric's Picks @AlaricsPicks]

Bonus - $VORB bankruptcy assets purchase

Yesterday, @RocketLab announced its purchase of $16m in former-competitor Virgin Orbit assets (manufacturing complex, machinery and equipment)

Tomorrow, it flies TROPICS, a former $ASTR Astra mission.

$RKLB

https://t.co/dIZjcY4jEK

[Rocket Lab @RocketLab]

Neutron is expanding! We’re grateful to be standing on the shoulders of giants as we grow our presence in Long Beach to support Neutron’s production and path to the pad.

More info: https://t.co/8x2OXRb33E

[Alaric's Picks @AlaricsPicks]

@RocketLab 🚀reported Q1 2023 earnings a couple of weeks ago.

🧵From high growth and great Neutron development to enhanced competitive positioning, here are 7 highlights:

$RKLB

[Alaric's Picks @AlaricsPicks]

7/7 Guidance - Other

"Space Sy. [...] to benefit from meaningful revenue recognition under the MDA contract [from] Q3'23." (Contract represents $143m in backlog)

Engine to be reflown in Q3

2023: 15 launches (inc. HASTE)
2024: 20

No info on (Amazon?) reaction wheels mega deal