Laurent Girouille

@Alastor2262

General Manager @Rain | 25+ yrs in trading & digital assets | Ex-Komainu, Newedge, Citibank, SocGen | Driving regulated crypto growth in UAE & MENA

Dubai

Joined May 2009

123 Following

52 Followers

74 Posts

Laurent Girouille

@Alastor2262

22 days ago

Crypto markets held up well despite renewed geopolitical tensions and a still hawkish Federal Reserve. The geopolitical backdrop has worsened again. The Iran ceasefire has effectively broken down after attacks on commercial tankers and renewed U.S. and Iranian strikes. Diplomatic channels remain open, but shipping risk through the Strait of Hormuz has increased and WTI has recovered to around $73. Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first positive week after eight consecutive weeks of outflows, while stablecoin supply stopped contracting for the first time since May. Those are encouraging signs that selling pressure may be easing, although they are not yet sufficient to confirm a durable trend reversal. Bitcoin remains above its 30-day moving average, but the latest bounce has failed to reclaim the 4-hour 50 EMA. Our preferred scenario remains an early liquidity sweep into $61.4K to $61.7K before a recovery toward $64.7K to $65.2K. Tuesday's U.S. CPI release is the key event of the week and is likely to determine whether Bitcoin confirms a short-term bottom or revisits lower liquidity.

Alastor2262's tweet photo. Crypto markets held up well despite renewed geopolitical tensions and a still hawkish Federal Reserve.
The geopolitical backdrop has worsened again. The Iran ceasefire has effectively broken down after attacks on commercial tankers and renewed U.S. and Iranian strikes. Diplomatic channels remain open, but shipping risk through the Strait of Hormuz has increased and WTI has recovered to around $73.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first positive week after eight consecutive weeks of outflows, while stablecoin supply stopped contracting for the first time since May. Those are encouraging signs that selling pressure may be easing, although they are not yet sufficient to confirm a durable trend reversal.
Bitcoin remains above its 30-day moving average, but the latest bounce has failed to reclaim the 4-hour 50 EMA. Our preferred scenario remains an early liquidity sweep into $61.4K to $61.7K before a recovery toward $64.7K to $65.2K.
Tuesday's U.S. CPI release is the key event of the week and is likely to determine whether Bitcoin confirms a short-term bottom or revisits lower liquidity.

Laurent Girouille

@Alastor2262

29 days ago

Crypto markets rebounded last week after a sharp oversold move, but the recovery is still not confirmed as a durable trend reversal. Total crypto market cap rose to around $2.26T, up roughly 6% to 8% from last week. The bounce was broad and altcoin led, with Bitcoin dominance falling to 55.7% from 58.2%. Ethereum dominance was broadly flat at 9.4%. Bitcoin rebounded from the cycle low near $57,000 and pushed higher after weaker U.S. payroll data reduced near term rate hike pressure. The move is constructive, but the market has now cleared the largest short liquidation zone and built up long leverage. That makes a sideways move or controlled pullback more likely at the start of the week. The key short term level is the 4 hour 50 EMA around $61.5K. As long as Bitcoin holds that area, the pullback should be treated as healthy consolidation. A break below $60.5K would weaken the setup and reopen the risk of a move toward the large liquidation pool near $57.4K. ETF flows improved, but have not fully turned. Bitcoin spot ETFs still saw around $527M of net outflows over the shortened week, marking an eighth consecutive negative week. However, Thursday printed the first positive daily inflow in eleven sessions, with around $222M of net inflows. Monday’s ETF print is the key confirmation test. Stablecoin liquidity remains the main issue. Total stablecoin supply fell again to around $311.4B, with USDT and USDC both contracting. This means the bounce was funded more by rotation and short term positioning than by fresh fiat inflows. Sentiment improved from panic levels. Bitcoin Fear and Greed rose to 24 from 16, but remains in extreme fear. Ethereum sentiment improved more meaningfully to 47 from 21 last week, despite ETH dominance barely moving. Macro remains restrictive. June payrolls were soft, but one weak jobs report does not create a Fed pivot. The Fed’s June dot plot remained hawkish, and the July 8 FOMC minutes could reveal a more restrictive internal debate than the market currently expects. The geopolitical backdrop has improved. U.S. and Iran technical talks in Doha showed positive progress, maritime activity between Iran and Qatar has resumed, and WTI is back around $70, close to pre-war levels. This reduces the immediate oil shock risk, but the ceasefire remains fragile and Hormuz warnings keep headline risk active. Disclaimer : Posted in personal capacity. Views are my own, not those of Rain MENA FZE (VARA-regulated, Dubai) or Raintrading Limited (FSRA-regulated, ADGM), where I serve as Senior Executive Officer. This is general market commentary, not investment advice, not a solicitation, and not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose the full value of your investment. Do your own research. No Rain client, product or service is being offered or promoted in this post.

Alastor2262's tweet photo. Crypto markets rebounded last week after a sharp oversold move, but the recovery is still not confirmed as a durable trend reversal.
Total crypto market cap rose to around $2.26T, up roughly 6% to 8% from last week. The bounce was broad and altcoin led, with Bitcoin dominance falling to 55.7% from 58.2%. Ethereum dominance was broadly flat at 9.4%.
Bitcoin rebounded from the cycle low near $57,000 and pushed higher after weaker U.S. payroll data reduced near term rate hike pressure. The move is constructive, but the market has now cleared the largest short liquidation zone and built up long leverage. That makes a sideways move or controlled pullback more likely at the start of the week.
The key short term level is the 4 hour 50 EMA around $61.5K. As long as Bitcoin holds that area, the pullback should be treated as healthy consolidation. A break below $60.5K would weaken the setup and reopen the risk of a move toward the large liquidation pool near $57.4K.
ETF flows improved, but have not fully turned. Bitcoin spot ETFs still saw around $527M of net outflows over the shortened week, marking an eighth consecutive negative week. However, Thursday printed the first positive daily inflow in eleven sessions, with around $222M of net inflows. Monday’s ETF print is the key confirmation test.
Stablecoin liquidity remains the main issue. Total stablecoin supply fell again to around $311.4B, with USDT and USDC both contracting. This means the bounce was funded more by rotation and short term positioning than by fresh fiat inflows.
Sentiment improved from panic levels. Bitcoin Fear and Greed rose to 24 from 16, but remains in extreme fear. Ethereum sentiment improved more meaningfully to 47 from 21 last week, despite ETH dominance barely moving.
Macro remains restrictive. June payrolls were soft, but one weak jobs report does not create a Fed pivot. The Fed’s June dot plot remained hawkish, and the July 8 FOMC minutes could reveal a more restrictive internal debate than the market currently expects.
The geopolitical backdrop has improved. U.S. and Iran technical talks in Doha showed positive progress, maritime activity between Iran and Qatar has resumed, and WTI is back around $70, close to pre-war levels. This reduces the immediate oil shock risk, but the ceasefire remains fragile and Hormuz warnings keep headline risk active.

Disclaimer :
Posted in personal capacity. Views are my own, not those of Rain MENA FZE (VARA-regulated, Dubai) or Raintrading Limited (FSRA-regulated, ADGM), where I serve as Senior Executive Officer. This is general market commentary, not investment advice, not a solicitation, and not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose the full value of your investment. Do your own research. No Rain client, product or service is being offered or promoted in this post.

108

Laurent Girouille

@Alastor2262

about 2 months ago

Weekly Crypto Outlook, June 15, 2026 Crypto continues to recover from oversold levels, but the move remains tactical rather than structural. Total crypto market cap stands at $2.21T, up 3.8% from last week. Volumes remain weak, with average weekly volume around $76B, 35% below average. Bitcoin volume was $30.1B, 36% below average, while Ethereum volume was $12.8B, 45% below average. The market is no longer under the same liquidation pressure as early June, but liquidity remains poor. Stablecoin activity is still weak, ETF demand has not clearly recovered, and institutional attention remains divided between crypto and AI. The main event this week is the Fed meeting on Wednesday, June 17. The market is not expecting a major policy change, but Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair will matter for tone, forward guidance, inflation interpretation, and the updated rate projections. The U.S. and Iran have reached a framework peace agreement, with a formal signing expected on Friday in Switzerland. This is a meaningful de escalation and should reduce the immediate oil shock risk. However, the deal still needs to be implemented, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen gradually, and longer term issues including Iran’s nuclear program remain unresolved. Bitcoin has room to continue the relief rally toward $68.5K to $69K. That zone is the area to watch for signs of exhaustion. A renewed push above that area would open the door to the larger $79K to $80K liquidity zone, but the more likely scenario is exhaustion near $69K followed by a retest of the recent lows. Ethereum has also bounced, but remains weaker than Bitcoin. ETH needs to reclaim $1,850 before the short term structure improves meaningfully.

Alastor2262's tweet photo. Weekly Crypto Outlook, June 15, 2026

Crypto continues to recover from oversold levels, but the move remains tactical rather than structural.
Total crypto market cap stands at $2.21T, up 3.8% from last week. Volumes remain weak, with average weekly volume around $76B, 35% below average. Bitcoin volume was $30.1B, 36% below average, while Ethereum volume was $12.8B, 45% below average.
The market is no longer under the same liquidation pressure as early June, but liquidity remains poor. Stablecoin activity is still weak, ETF demand has not clearly recovered, and institutional attention remains divided between crypto and AI.
The main event this week is the Fed meeting on Wednesday, June 17. The market is not expecting a major policy change, but Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair will matter for tone, forward guidance, inflation interpretation, and the updated rate projections.
The U.S. and Iran have reached a framework peace agreement, with a formal signing expected on Friday in Switzerland. This is a meaningful de escalation and should reduce the immediate oil shock risk. However, the deal still needs to be implemented, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen gradually, and longer term issues including Iran’s nuclear program remain unresolved.
Bitcoin has room to continue the relief rally toward $68.5K to $69K. That zone is the area to watch for signs of exhaustion. A renewed push above that area would open the door to the larger $79K to $80K liquidity zone, but the more likely scenario is exhaustion near $69K followed by a retest of the recent lows.
Ethereum has also bounced, but remains weaker than Bitcoin. ETH needs to reclaim $1,850 before the short term structure improves meaningfully.

Alastor2262 retweeted

Rain

@rain

about 2 months ago

الأسهم المرمزة متاحة الآن على ريـن. بالشراكة مع منصة @krakenfx والاعتماد على @xStocksFi و إطار الأسهم المرمزة من @Payward بإمكانك تداول أسهم تسلا وآبل وإنفيديا وغيرها 24/7 على مدار الساعة، مع ملكية جزئية وتسوية شبه فورية، تحت إشراف مصرف البحرين المركزي (CBB).

rain's tweet photo. الأسهم المرمزة متاحة الآن على ريـن.

بالشراكة مع منصة @krakenfx والاعتماد على @xStocksFi و إطار الأسهم المرمزة من @Payward

بإمكانك تداول أسهم تسلا وآبل وإنفيديا وغيرها 24/7 على مدار الساعة، مع ملكية جزئية وتسوية شبه فورية، تحت إشراف مصرف البحرين المركزي (CBB). https://t.co/gjmLDnK5SF

Who to follow

about 2 months ago

Crypto enters the week after a sharp selloff, but the move looks more like a sentiment shock than a structural breakdown. Total crypto market cap stands at $2.13T, down 14.5% from last week. Volumes increased sharply, suggesting forced selling and liquidation activity. Bitcoin weekly volume was $47.3B, while Ethereum weekly volume was $23.2B. The main pressure is not coming from new leveraged shorts. Open interest has fallen sharply, and futures leverage has largely been cleaned out. The weakness is mainly spot driven, led by ETF redemptions, stablecoin outflows, and a broader rotation of liquidity away from crypto. Macro remains the key driver. The market has moved from pricing 1 to 2 cuts earlier this year to implying roughly 40bps of hikes, mainly because of inflation risk linked to geopolitics and the Iran conflict. This repricing is doing much of the damage to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is oversold and should be able to recover this week. The base case is a move back toward $70K, with a possible extension toward $72K. The main upside liquidity target remains $80K, but we do not expect that level to clear in the short term. The key event this week is U.S. CPI on Wednesday, June 10. A hot print would likely revive rate hike pricing and give ETF sellers a reason to continue. Until CPI clears, the risk and reward for new longs remains unattractive.

Alastor2262's tweet photo. Crypto enters the week after a sharp selloff, but the move looks more like a sentiment shock than a structural breakdown.

Total crypto market cap stands at $2.13T, down 14.5% from last week. Volumes increased sharply, suggesting forced selling and liquidation activity. Bitcoin weekly volume was $47.3B, while Ethereum weekly volume was $23.2B.

The main pressure is not coming from new leveraged shorts. Open interest has fallen sharply, and futures leverage has largely been cleaned out. The weakness is mainly spot driven, led by ETF redemptions, stablecoin outflows, and a broader rotation of liquidity away from crypto.

Macro remains the key driver. The market has moved from pricing 1 to 2 cuts earlier this year to implying roughly 40bps of hikes, mainly because of inflation risk linked to geopolitics and the Iran conflict. This repricing is doing much of the damage to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is oversold and should be able to recover this week. The base case is a move back toward $70K, with a possible extension toward $72K. The main upside liquidity target remains $80K, but we do not expect that level to clear in the short term.

The key event this week is U.S. CPI on Wednesday, June 10. A hot print would likely revive rate hike pricing and give ETF sellers a reason to continue. Until CPI clears, the risk and reward for new longs remains unattractive.

Laurent Girouille

@Alastor2262

2 months ago

Weekly Crypto Outlook, June 1, 2026 TL;DR Crypto enters the week with weak liquidity, continued outflows, and limited directional conviction. Total crypto market cap stands at $2.49T, down 2.4% from last week. Volume has improved slightly, but not enough to change the broader picture. ETF selling, stablecoin outflows, and weak spot participation continue to weigh on the market. Bitcoin remains under pressure. The current scenario points to further weakness into the downside liquidity zone around $71.0K to $71.3K, with the larger $70K area still in focus. A relief rally would be more likely to develop from the $70K to $71K zone. Ethereum remains weaker than Bitcoin, but it is now close to key short term support. ETH needs to hold the $1,970 to $1,975 zone and reclaim $2,050 to improve the short term setup. Macro remains the main driver this week. The key U.S. events are Powell’s speech and ISM Manufacturing on Monday, June 1, ADP Employment and ISM Services on Wednesday, June 3, and the labor market report on Friday, June 5. The key takeaway: stay cautious. Bitcoin can still produce a sharp relief rally if downside liquidity is taken first, but the broader structure remains fragile without stronger ETF flows, stablecoin minting, or a clear macro catalyst. Disclaimer : Posted in personal capacity. Views are my own, not those of Rain MENA FZE (VARA-regulated, Dubai) or Raintrading Limited (FSRA-regulated, ADGM), where I serve as Senior Executive Officer. This is general market commentary, not investment advice, not a solicitation, and not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose the full value of your investment. Do your own research. No Rain client, product or service is being offered or promoted in this post. https://t.co/CKYKowkz7R

Laurent Girouille

@Alastor2262

2 months ago

Crypto enters the week in a fragile risk off structure. Bitcoin’s trend model has flipped bearish, ETF outflows have accelerated, stablecoin liquidity remains weak, and sentiment has reset sharply lower. Bitcoin is trading around the key $76K to $77K zone. This is now the immediate battleground. The market is caught between upside liquidity at $79K to $80K, with a larger cluster near $84K, and downside liquidity at $74K, then $70K. Macro is again the main driver. The latest FOMC minutes were more hawkish than expected, the Fed has dropped its easing bias, and a rate hike remains possible if inflation does not cool. Core PCE is therefore the key U.S. data release this week. The U.S. and Iran conflict remains the main geopolitical swing factor. A confirmed peace framework and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a violent relief rally. However, the deal is not complete, the U.S. naval blockade remains in place, and major issues remain unresolved. Ethereum remains weaker than Bitcoin. ETH dominance has fallen below 10%, ETF flows remain negative, and funding is still elevated relative to price action. The preferred relative value trade remains long Bitcoin versus short Ethereum. The key takeaway: stay defensive. Bitcoin can bounce sharply on better geopolitical headlines, but the broader structure has weakened. We would only become more constructive if Bitcoin reclaims $78.1K to $78.4K and ETF flows begin to stabilize.

Alastor2262's tweet photo. Crypto enters the week in a fragile risk off structure. Bitcoin’s trend model has flipped bearish, ETF outflows have accelerated, stablecoin liquidity remains weak, and sentiment has reset sharply lower.
Bitcoin is trading around the key $76K to $77K zone. This is now the immediate battleground. The market is caught between upside liquidity at $79K to $80K, with a larger cluster near $84K, and downside liquidity at $74K, then $70K.
Macro is again the main driver. The latest FOMC minutes were more hawkish than expected, the Fed has dropped its easing bias, and a rate hike remains possible if inflation does not cool. Core PCE is therefore the key U.S. data release this week.
The U.S. and Iran conflict remains the main geopolitical swing factor. A confirmed peace framework and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a violent relief rally. However, the deal is not complete, the U.S. naval blockade remains in place, and major issues remain unresolved.
Ethereum remains weaker than Bitcoin. ETH dominance has fallen below 10%, ETF flows remain negative, and funding is still elevated relative to price action. The preferred relative value trade remains long Bitcoin versus short Ethereum.
The key takeaway: stay defensive. Bitcoin can bounce sharply on better geopolitical headlines, but the broader structure has weakened. We would only become more constructive if Bitcoin reclaims $78.1K to $78.4K and ETF flows begin to stabilize.

Laurent Girouille

@Alastor2262

3 months ago

https://t.co/ItM2kGyMRG

Laurent Girouille

@Alastor2262

3 months ago

Big news today, but an even bigger "thank you" to the team. Getting to this point required navigating complex frameworks and building trust from the ground up. From compliance and legal to engineering and ops, every member of the Rain family played a part in making us the first platform to hold licenses across the CBB, FSRA, and now VARA. We’re just getting started! https://t.co/fVhqx1ZtFw