Alberdi Partners

THE EXPERTS ON LATIN AMERICA / ECONOMICS / POLITICS / MARKETS

[¿Qué Hacemos con Los Pesos? @quehacemospesos]

.@joseibano y Jorge Morgenstern (@raft) explican por qué la recompra de letras intransferibles ayuda a limpiar la hoja de balance del Banco Central y a corregir una de las herencias más pesadas de la macro argentina.

Mirá el programa completo: https://t.co/eXNYRklQqW

[Alberdi Partners @AlberdiPartners]

Jorge Morgenstern, economista jefe de Aberdi Partners, en Serrucho Económico de @ahora_play

https://t.co/yEo3oXAzoz

[Alberdi Partners @AlberdiPartners]

“Empresas en crisis” Jorge Morgenstern, economista jefe de Alberdi Partners, en LN+

https://t.co/BeBH8X4Ndt

[Alberdi Partners @AlberdiPartners]

Cree que hay margen para reformas moderadas de derecha que puedan encaminar a Chile, incluyendo una reducción gradual del gasto público, una reducción de la burocracia y el restablecimiento del orden público, incluyendo las políticas migratorias.
#eleccionespresidente #chile

[Alberdi Partners @AlberdiPartners]

Ayer nos acompañó el politólogo chileno, Patricio Navia, en un evento vía Zoom con nuestros clientes en donde analizó las perspectivas de Chile post elecciones.

[Alberdi Partners @AlberdiPartners]

Navia destacó la moderación del discurso de aceptación de Kast. Se mostró más como un conservador sensato que busca el consenso que como un populista de derecha.

[Alberdi Partners @AlberdiPartners]

Bottom line: the debt is convergent, but that any misstep would make it divergent. Shocks would keep debt to GDP above 60% and yearly maturities high. Given Argentina’s low “debt tolerance”, could prove destabilizing. #ExpertsonLatinAmerica @MarcosBuscaglia

[Alberdi Partners @AlberdiPartners]

ARGENTINA

Argentina’s debt is sustainable but requires care. Our DSA model shows that debt/ GDP is in a sustainable trajectory providing the government can tap external markets and extend maturities. In our base-case, debt/GDP falls 6pp by 2030 to 60%.
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[Alberdi Partners @AlberdiPartners]

We think that Argentina may be able to tap markets to roll-over market FX debt amortizations due in coming years. That said, being able to also replace market debt for IMF loans seems a high bar, as it would require issuance north of $13bn per year.

[Alberdi Partners @AlberdiPartners]

Some countries are growing above potential (Brazil and Colombia) while some have slack (Chile and Peru). In this setting, we expect central banks to proceed with caution in the coming months, with more space for easing in 2026. #ExpertsOnLatinAmerica  @MarcosBuscaglia

[Alberdi Partners @AlberdiPartners]

In our Quarterly Report, we explored the economic and political outlook for Latin America’s biggest economies. We forecast below consensus GDP growth in Latin America in '25 and '26, after a better than expected 1H25.
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[Alberdi Partners @AlberdiPartners]

Inflation is no longer falling in Brazil and Mexico and remains uncomfortably high in Chile and Colombia. We forecast below consensus inflation for 2025 for most countries (except in Chile), and for Colombia and Peru in 2026.

[Nazarena @NazaLomagno]

La charla completa que mantuve con Marcos en Ámbito Financiero 👇.

Marcos Buscaglia: "Si el Gobierno hubiera acumulado reservas de a poco, el riesgo país estaría más bajo".

https://t.co/sbfJ07Uk7N