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I wanted to understand Bitcoin's price multiple relative to each historical cycle top, for the 12 months leading up to those tops. Can this give us some insight as to WHEN and WHAT the top is likely to be (and not to be) this time around? Example: "Within the next 2 months, how likely is the price to double, giving us that $200k top?"
In 2011, the year prior to the cycle top saw the price multiply hundreds of times (~500x from just 8 months before the price peak).
For each subsequent cycle, as you might have imagined, the price went through fewer multiples to reach the price peak. Although, the average difference (on a log scale) is less each new cycle.
For the 2011, 2013 and 2016 peak lead-ups, there was a gradual descending of multiples (from the ~100xs to 10xs and lower), with a very sharp downward shift in the final 1-2 months to finally hit 1x (this defines the price peak). BUT - for 2021, this behavior was not observed, and it was more of a trajectory shift around 5-6 months out, followed by a gentler, more gradual approach to the ultimate peak for the final 3 month lead-up.
So what am I doing here? I am (rather qualitatively) examining the CURRENT CYCLE PRICE ACTION (black line), and plotting it as a simulated approach to a hypothetical price peak with assumed timeframes (dates) and prices (in USD). We can then compare these scenarios to the past 12-month lead-ups to historical price peaks.
I did this, and (again, rather qualitatively) binned these into RED, YELLOW or GREEN boxes, based on how likely the scenario seems.
These are the scenarios, and I'll give you my reasoning for each in the thread below 🧵:
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AI Companions in Cozy Simulations 🎣
AI companions have served as friends and therapists for millions of users already. however, the consumer app that truly unlocks companions for everyone will look more like a cozy game or simulation, rather than a chatbot
cozy games like @animalcrossing and Stardew Valley have sold >120M units ww, providing community and emotional support for decades. Love and Deepspace, an otome game for character relationship building, grossed >$400M revenue just last year
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Just a few minutes ago, President Trump signed an Executive Order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
The Reserve will be capitalized with Bitcoin owned by the federal government that was forfeited as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. This means it will not cost taxpayers a dime.
It is estimated that the U.S. government owns about 200,000 bitcoin; however, there has never been a complete audit. The E.O. directs a full accounting of the federal government’s digital asset holdings.
The U.S. will not sell any bitcoin deposited into the Reserve. It will be kept as a store of value. The Reserve is like a digital Fort Knox for the cryptocurrency often called “digital gold.”
Premature sales of bitcoin have already cost U.S. taxpayers over $17 billion in lost value. Now the federal government will have a strategy to maximize the value of its holdings.
The Secretaries of Treasury and Commerce are authorized to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin, provided that those strategies have no incremental costs on American taxpayers.
IN ADDITION, the Executive Order establishes a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, consisting of digital assets other than bitcoin forfeited in criminal or civil proceedings.
The government will not acquire additional assets for the Stockpile beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings.
The purpose of the Stockpile is responsible stewardship of the government’s digital assets under the Treasury Department.
PROMISES MADE, PROMISES KEPT
President Trump promised to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile. Those promises have been kept.
This Executive Order underscores President Trump’s commitment to making the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.”
I want to thank the President for his leadership and vision in supporting this cutting-edge technology and for his rapid execution in supporting the digital asset industry. His administration is truly moving at “tech speed.”
I also want to thank the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets — especially Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick — for their help and support in getting this done. Finally Bo Hines played a critical role as Executive Director of our Working Group.