Alberto Caruso

Senior Manager @EY_Italy, macroeconomist | Ass Fellow @SolvayEDU - Previously at Centro Studi @Confindustria and @NowCastingIdeas | PhD @ULBruxelles & @uniLUISS

[Alberto Caruso @AlbertoCaruso11]

Qui il nostro report: https://t.co/WjXMUQSvgV

[Alberto Caruso @AlbertoCaruso11]

EY vede il pil italiano crescere dello 0,7% nel 2024 - Notizie - https://t.co/sbziBjbH1a https://t.co/iWmzuiwPEo

[EY Italy @EY_Italy]

📈 EY Italian Macroeconomic Bulletin

Si stima un aumento del PIL italiano a +0,7% nel 2023 e +0,8% nel 2024: i consumi trainano la crescita grazie a un incremento dell’1,5% rispetto al 2022.

Scarica il report 👇 https://t.co/1afSrNEWZA

[Alberto Caruso @AlbertoCaruso11]

Dal Ref a Ernst&Young, a #Bankitalia: ecco come si abbassano le #previsioni di #crescita dell’Italia - Il Sole 24 ORE @EY_Italy #pil
https://t.co/nEdIFhBVyQ

[Alberto Caruso @AlbertoCaruso11]

Which are the latest developments in the European, Italian, German and UK economies? Which is the macro outlook from now to 2025? I discuss these topics in a webcast with some EY colleagues.

Join us and register below👇
https://t.co/pIMtVwPq6r

#macroeconomics #gdp #inflation

[Giovanni Ricco 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @ricco_giovanni]

What is driving inflation in the euro area? Headline has been declining but core kept climbing

An interesting debate has put forward two explanations:
- Large energy price shock & supply chains
- Demand (maybe government demand)

[Alberto Caruso @AlbertoCaruso11]

The English version of the latest release of the EY Italian Macroeconomic Bulletin is out!

You can find it here:

https://t.co/b2Ww8ae56b

#italianeconomy #economicforecast #gdp #inflation

[EY Italy @EY_Italy]

Secondo le previsioni di EY il nostro Paese chiuderà il 2023 con un PIL a +0,5%, ma solo se riuscirà a spendere per intero i 40 miliardi di fondi europei previsti per l'anno.
Su @rep_economia i dati dell'EY Italian Macroeconomic Bulletin: https://t.co/jv97wfoVf2

[Alberto Caruso @AlbertoCaruso11]

Online l'EY Macro Bulletin con le previsioni per l'economia italiana per il '23 e '24:

https://t.co/JHGnOewcUG

Le nostre previsioni indicano per l'Italia una crescita del PIL di 0,5% nel '23 e dell’1,3% nel '24; l'inflazione si stima passerà dal 6,7% al 3,1%.
#pil #inflazione

[Alberto Caruso @AlbertoCaruso11]

Our paper on forecasting interest rates in real time, with @LCoroneo, is out on the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking!

In Laura's thread below the main results of the paper, which you can find here: https://t.co/zYlQnhVnvz

👇👇👇

[Laura Coroneo @LCoroneo]

"Does real-time macroeconomic information help to predict interest rates?" with @AlbertoCaruso11

Short answer: yes!

Using a mixed frequencies dynamic factor model for Treasury zero-coupon yields, real-time macroeconomic variables and interest rate surveys, we find that: 1/5

[Alberto Caruso @AlbertoCaruso11]

@Roberto__Iacono @LSEInequalities Congrats!!

[Alberto Caruso @AlbertoCaruso11]

Abbiamo stimato gli impatti di questa edizione del Festival: considerando gli effetti derivanti dall'attivazione delle catene di fornitura e dell'indotto, si arriva ad un giro di affari di quasi 190 milioni di euro.

https://t.co/ORlxOsE5cP via @repubblica

[Alberto Caruso @AlbertoCaruso11]

Abbiamo appena pubblicato il primo EY Italian Macroeconomic Bulletin con le nostre previsioni sull'economia italiana per il 2023, realizzate con un nuovo modello macroeconometrico proprietario di @EY_Italy . #Economia #inflazione #pil

👇 👇👇

https://t.co/RmQZsZLQDx

[IlSole24ORE @sole24ore]

🔸 #Pil in crescita dello 0,6% e inflazione al 7,1%: le stime di EY per il 2023 https://t.co/DrPBkrN4UA

[Domenico Giannone @DomenicoGiannon]

Finally, everybody can freely create nowcasts and call them nowcasts https://t.co/6NVSevvzFj

[Morten O. Ravn @MortenORavn]

Tory party is about to elect the next UK Prime Minister. Focus is probably on Tory party survival, but it should be on the challenges for the UK.

So what are the economic challenges facing UK?

Here are 9 charts, could have added loads more, but this is more than enough.

1/10

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

What I learned at IMF/WB meetings
1. No consensus on monetary policy. Most policy makers want to keep hiking aggressively, most market participants want central banks to slow. Best quote I heard: "When I drive into fog, I slow down." There's massive global uncertainty. Slow down!

[Alberto Caruso @AlbertoCaruso11]

@jackfosten @LCoroneo 😅😅

[Alberto Caruso @AlbertoCaruso11]

New publication with @LCoroneo in the 𝐉𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐟 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲, 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐚𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠!
We show that real-time macroeconomic information is helpful to predict interest rates, and that incorporating interest rate surveys can improve predictive ability.
Details👇

[Laura Coroneo @LCoroneo]

Does real-time macroeconomic information help to predict interest rates?

Short answer: YES!

See my paper with @AlbertoCaruso11, just accepted at the 𝐉𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐟 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲, 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐚𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠

More details 🧵

#EconTwitter #forecasting #interestrates

[Ricardo Reis @R2Rsquared]

** Blaming the ECB for an Italian debt crisis?

As the ECB (finally!) raised rates to curb inflation it announced a new bond-buying program. If that fails and an Italian debt crisis follows, is the ECB to blame? Some rough back-of-the-envelope numbers on 🇮🇹 debt fundamentals… 🧵