Aldrin Research

Prediction market industry research and intelligence

[High Roller @HighRollerROLR]

ROLR™ is officially live.

Our real-money prediction markets platform is now available to eligible U.S. customers. Discover markets, trade contracts reflecting your views on real-world outcomes and manage your positions, all in one place.

$ROLR

[ProphetX @ProphetX]

Open API.
Best odds in sports.
Your key is one click away.

Generate your API key below.

[Aldrin Research @AldrinResearch]

Dollar volume is a sum of all contracts traded x price per contract.

Notional volume, sometimes referred to as contract volume, is the number of contracts traded, at $1 each.

For example, if 500 contracts are traded at $0.30 each, the notional/contract volume is 500, while dollar volume is $150 (500*0.3).

[Aldrin Research @AldrinResearch]

Notional volume on @DKPredictions exchange DKeX hit a record $316M on Sunday, up 42% WoW.

Dollar volume has held at $40M–$42M for the last three Sundays.

Combos accounted for 78% of Sunday’s notional volume but 31% of dollar volume.

We’ve analyzed notional vs. dollar volume across several exchanges. Reach out if you’d like to learn more.

[Sahil Patel @sahildotcom]

moderating a panel next week at @nextpredictio on prediction market data, volume metrics, who’s winning, and who to keep an eye out for

what questions do you want us to tackle?

@samschwartz71 @BigBuckHunterrr

[Aldrin Research @AldrinResearch]

Packs are now live on @PrizePicks

[Aldrin Research @AldrinResearch]

US Tech 100 has been added under Equity Indexes

[Aldrin Research @AldrinResearch]

An “Invest” tab is now in the bottom navigation of @Kalshi’s mobile app.

The page features various Perps markets at the top, along with sections for Equity indexes, Metals and Crypto.

[Aldrin Research @AldrinResearch]

@CoinbasePredict Midterm markets

[Aldrin Research @AldrinResearch]

Politics Hub now live on @DKPredictions

@Kalshi, @Polymarket, @RobinhoodApp, and @Gemini Midterms markets included in the thread 👇

[Aldrin Research @AldrinResearch]

@Gemini Midterms markets

[Sahil Patel @sahildotcom]

escalators and ladders live on @Kalshi

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

Today we launched the first stock index perpetual future in America.

You can now trade a perp on the US 500, an index of America’s largest companies weighted by market cap.

Stock index perps let you trade the broader market with greater capital efficiency and make it easier to do things like take a short position. Unlike traditional options and futures, they don’t expire, so there’s no need to roll over contracts or decide when to exercise an option. Gains and losses are tied directly to how much the market moves, giving you an efficient and straightforward way to ask the question: is the market going up or down?

One perpetual contract concentrates liquidity instead of spreading it across expiration dates. Bringing more traders and competing views into a single liquidity pool on a national exchange can strengthen competition, improve pricing, and make markets more efficient over time.

This launch brings us closer to building a financial exchange for anyone and everyone. Prediction markets gave traders exposure to the events that move the stock market. The US 500 is the natural next step: a way to trade on the market itself.

[Sahil Patel @sahildotcom]

I’m at @DealFlowPREDICT today and tomorrow - reach out if you’re here and want to learn more about the work we’re doing in the prediction market space @AldrinResearch!

[Aldrin Research @AldrinResearch]

Sunday notional volume reached $4.96B on Oct. 4, up 52% from Sep. 13, the first NFL Sunday of the season.

Taker/dollar volume rose 43% over the same period to $1.22B

Data across 10 U.S. CFTC-regulated exchanges tracked by Aldrin Research.

[Rothera @RotheraMarkets]

Rothera surpassed 5B contracts traded on our exchange this September, a significant milestone in under four months after launch.

In Q4, we'll continue to add contracts in sports, elections, finance and economics, and crypto. We’re just getting started, but we look forward to continuing this momentum to support liquid, high integrity event contract markets wrapped in world-class service.

[Aldrin Research @AldrinResearch]

Two volume milestones this week:

@Novig surpassed $2B in trading volume since its exchange launched, adding its second billion in less than half the time it took to reach its first as the NFL season ramps up.

@Polymarket (US) crypto up/down markets crossed $100M in trailing 7-day trading volume, following their launch announcement earlier this week.